BuffaloWeather Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Would that make it the warmest July/Aug combo on record? Love when tropical season gets going but hoping no one gets hit with anything major this year. No one needs to deal with a major hurricane landfall with everything else going on in 2020. I'm not sure, but it would likely be quite close to the record. I know we are in the top 3 warmest summers of all time for June/July/August. There is some crazy potential the next few weeks in the tropics. My uncle and aunt are up from Boca Raton Florida for the summer and told them to get ready to book a last minute flight down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Oooh, the first low elevation snow showing up on the super long range. Obviously over amplified and not going to happen, but just exciting to see the models pulling down some really cold air. Fall is knocking on the door.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Oooh, the first low elevation snow showing up on the super long range. Obviously over amplified and not going to happen, but just exciting to see the models pulling down some really cold air. Fall is knocking on the door.... Easy pass until November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah next 7 days look like 85 and sunny. Perfect weather!! Keep the heat rolling right into October and lets get cold from Nov-March. Last years November really screwed us though, it was our only cold winter month. But its not always like that. Nov 2014 was really cold and it persisted through the winter. Cool September through October and cold November through Mid-April. :P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 Incredible that there’s forecasted to be two Hurricanes making landfall in the gulf at the same time. Definitely never seen that before. Only in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Incredible that there’s forecasted to be two Hurricanes making landfall in the gulf at the same time. Definitely never seen that before. Only in 2020. Once it gets into the gulf it has the potential to explode. Not much hindering it. Imagine 2 Majors in the gulf at same time. It would be so 2020. Latest track has is going on the southern portion of that cone with more time over the water in the gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Once it gets into the gulf it has the potential to explode. Not much hindering it. Imagine 2 Majors in the gulf at same time. It would be so 2020. Latest track has is going on the southern portion of that cone with more time over the water in the gulf. That would be insane but with the new fix about 80 miles south that also could mean the storm gets shredded over PR/Hispaniola/Cuba. That could happen and it could still get its act together in the Gulf or if TD 14 lands up stronger over the western Gulf the outflow channel from that would likely weaken or at least temper intensification if Laura is even intact after possible interactions with the islands. So many possibilities and definitely going to be fascinating to track and see how this all unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: That would be insane but with the new fix about 80 miles south that also could mean the storm gets shredded over PR/Hispaniola/Cuba. That could happen and it could still get its act together in the Gulf or if TD 14 lands up stronger over the western Gulf the outflow channel from that would likely weaken or at least temper intensification if Laura is even intact after possible interactions with the islands. So many possibilities and definitely going to be fascinating to track and see how this all unfolds. As we saw with Michael, it doesn't take long to get an exploding Hurricane in the gulf. It's like a hot spring with those water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2020 Share Posted August 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: As we saw with Michael, it doesn't take long to get an exploding Hurricane in the gulf. It's like a hot spring with those water temps. For sure it’s just there’s a lot more involved then water temps. With a trough incoming from the north as it gets deeper in the Gulf there could be interaction with strong shear and as mentioned with its close proximity now TD 14 could have impacts if that storm ends up the stronger one with its outflow channel impeding Laura. Obviously anything can happen but I don’t see how we’d be able to see 2 majors simultaneously in the Gulf within 500 miles of each other, but then again like you said it’s 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 21, 2020 Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 Heat wave should last until Thurs/Fri next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 It’s too far out to get truly excited but the last few runs bring the remnants of Laura right up over as they phase with a mid latitude cyclone. Would be a beautiful thing! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 20 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: It’s too far out to get truly excited but the last few runs bring the remnants of Laura right up over as they phase with a mid latitude cyclone. Would be a beautiful thing! Hope it verifies. Still bone dry here. Lots of leaves dropping as trees get more stressed. Could use a good region-wide soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Seem like the potential of an MCS tomorrow night. Could get interesting if we're on the southern side of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 3 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Hope it verifies. Still bone dry here. Lots of leaves dropping as trees get more stressed. Could use a good region-wide soaking. I hope we can get some more moisture to benefit the Fall color changes coming in the next 1 to 2 months. Otherwise, it is looking to be yet another lackluster fall foliage season added on to the string of recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Today marked the 20th day Syracuse has hit 90 degrees this summer! 7th hottest summer on record...July was hottest on record. Mercy! Give me some below normal months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Looks like potential 60s for highs on wed, Thurs, sat and sun, couple nights in the 40s will feel refreshing for sure.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 Another 89 yesterday +3.6 for the month. We have had like 10 89s this summer. It is likely going to stop us from beating the 90+ record of 20 for a summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 First time I've seen this since May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 Most places are calling for super torch winter, lets hope they're wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 14 hours ago, vortmax said: Seem like the potential of an MCS tomorrow night. Could get interesting if we're on the southern side of it... Looks like the MCS will not hit us, but still talking about elevated storms movig through after midnight. These can be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Most places are calling for super torch winter, lets hope they're wrong. What has happened to our winters?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Most places are calling for super torch winter, lets hope they're wrong. As a winter sports enthusiast, I have finally learned to accept this seemingly new reality. My mind has shifted to hoping for a few decent storms and forgetting about any type of consistent “average winter temps” to maintain a decent snowcover away from Adirondack high peaks. Hope for a few decent storms as a bonus, otherwise expect 35-40° highs and grey skies for 4-6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 26 minutes ago, winter_rules said: As a winter sports enthusiast, I have finally learned to accept this seemingly new reality. My mind has shifted to hoping for a few decent storms and forgetting about any type of consistent “average winter temps” to maintain a decent snowcover away from Adirondack high peaks. Hope for a few decent storms as a bonus, otherwise expect 35-40° highs and grey skies for 4-6 months. I'm not convinced that our winters have reached a new 'norm.' We just don't seem to be getting good 'alignment' of the teleconnections for the last few. We've had a consistent +NAO for many winters in a row (it seems), which doesn't allow any cold to stick around. It's not like there's no cold air around anymore - all we need is some good blocking. Now, if there's a lack of blocking because of some global changes, then that's a different story, but I don't think that's the case - I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, vortmax said: I'm not convinced that our winters have reached a new 'norm.' We just don't seem to be getting good 'alignment' of the teleconnections for the last few. We've had a consistent +NAO for many winters in a row (it seems), which doesn't allow any cold to stick around. It's not like there's no cold air around anymore - all we need is some good blocking. Now, if there's a lack of blocking because of some global changes, then that's a different story, but I don't think that's the case - I could be wrong though. There's a growing body of literature linking climate change to a slowing of the jet stream. The end result is "stuck patterns." Alaska's record warm summer last year, Siberia's record warmth earlier this year, and Phoenix's record-setting summer this year are some recent examples resulting from a greater persistence in prevailing patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Looks like the teleconnections will support a cool down - makes sense that teh long-range is cooler than normal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There's a growing body of literature linking climate change to a slowing of the jet stream. The end result is "stuck patterns." Alaska's record warm summer last year, Siberia's record warmth earlier this year, and Phoenix's record-setting summer this year are some recent examples resulting from a greater persistence in prevailing patterns. Where's the record cold areas in these blocked patterns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 I thought it was an opposite situation with the Jet Streams...at least the Pacific and Northern Jet Stream. Raging fast with little ability for cold air to punch south and get blocked...which would be more likely if we could get a -NAO that actually lasts a while...but that can't happen because the Jet is moving so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, vortmax said: Where's the record cold areas in these blocked patterns? That's a good question. I'm not sure. Thanks global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a good question. I'm not sure. Thanks global warming. Maybe over the ocean?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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