Upstate/Eastern New York

[vortmax]

Lol, I was coming on here this AM to post the below and say it would be cool to get some waterspout pics on the board! Thanks Buf! 

A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EDT...

For the following areas...
  Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay to Sackets Harbor...

At 809 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts
was located 7 nm west of Southwick Beach, or 16 nm north of Mexico
Bay, moving east at 30 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts to 40 knots.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
         higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

Locations impacted include...
Southwick Beach and Westcott Beach.

[TugHillMatt]

Back up close to 90 again all next week. Uggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[Flying MXZ]

Beautiful 48.9° this morning after an evening in the low 60's. 

[cny rider]

1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

Beautiful 48.9° this morning after an evening in the low 60's. 

There's a morning every year that reminds me how short summer is up here, and today was it.

I had to turn the lights on when I woke up at 0530.  That was the first clue.

Then I rode my bike to work......long sleeve jersey for the first time in months.  Cool, crisp air with patches of fog.  So classically beautiful.

There's still plenty of summer left but it doesn't last forever.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like a warm fall coming

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like this winter will feature a weak La Nina. This usually features snowy Decembers. Besides 2013-2015 winters,  2000-01 might have been my favorite winter

2017-18, 2016-17, 2008-09, 2000-01, 1995-96 ,1983-84, 1971-72

[vortmax]

Really nice cool morning. Got down to the low 50s for the first time in quite awhile on the lake plain.

[Thinksnow18]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like a warm fall coming

Can We really have that persistent of a pattern? I mean what would be the drivers of such an extended look? Asking for a friend...

[BuffaloWeather]

32 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Can We really have that persistent of a pattern? I mean what would be the drivers of such an extended look? Asking for a friend...

I'd rather be in a warm pattern now then in winter. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'd rather be in a warm pattern now then in winter. 

Yep me too. At some point this pattern has to give and even reverse, hopefully it’s sometime after late October when it would mean below average temperatures would likely bring better chances for snow. 60s and 70s would be wonderful now but I’d rather be 10 degrees below average in November when it’s prime lake effect season then now when it doesn’t really mean much in sensible weather impacts. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Can We really have that persistent of a pattern? I mean what would be the drivers of such an extended look? Asking for a friend...

The drivers of that looks to be the consistent warm pool of water south of Alaska and west of Seattle. 

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The drivers of that looks to be the consistent warm pool of water south of Alaska and west of Seattle. 

And thats odd because that was the blob

[TugHillMatt]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like a warm fall coming

Fall above normal? Say it ain't so. Pretty soon that will just be the normal fall temps with all the warm ones we have had.

[brentrich]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Fall above normal? Say it ain't so. Pretty soon that will just be the normal fall temps with all the warm ones we have had.

and we will have below average in spring (March-May) which is the new normal for us in the northeast. 

[WNash]

I wish I could put today in a bottle and open it up whenever I need to. Warm, sunny, very little humidity. I worked in the garden for a half hour in mid-afternoon wearing shorts and a t-shirt and never felt a drop of sweat. Absolutely perfect. And one of my tomatoes finally showed the first blush of color.

[TugHillMatt]

Visiting my family in Danville, PA (You know, the reason it's been in the cool 70s all week in upstate NY...lol). I really think a rain-wrapped tornado went through here at 9:30 this morning. During the storm, I was watching the wind blow from the west for 10 minutes...then all of a sudden it shifted briskly from the east for 5 minutes. Flooding, hail, and wind damage around. No warning whatsoever.

Chainsaws being used all over before this next storm moves in.

[winter_rules]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Visiting my family in Danville, PA (You know, the reason it's been in the cool 70s all week in upstate NY...lol). I really think a rain-wrapped tornado went through here at 9:30 this morning. During the storm, I was watching the wind blow from the west for 10 minutes...then all of a sudden it shifted briskly from the east for 5 minutes. Flooding, hail, and wind damage around. No warning whatsoever.

Chainsaws being used all over before this next storm moves in.

We got two rounds of rain between 4am and about 8am which resulted in exactly 2in of rain.  There was a ton of close lightning (and loud thunder) associated with both rounds.  There’s a surprising amount of energy associated with these storms.  
 

Including today’s rain (thus far) we have now received 4.5in since Tuesday morning. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

We got two rounds of rain between 4am and about 8am which resulted in exactly 2in of rain.  There was a ton of close lightning (and loud thunder) associated with both rounds.  There’s a surprising amount of energy associated with these storms.  
 

Including today’s rain (thus far) we have now received 4.5in since Tuesday morning. 

Indeed! The amount of rain that fell in such a short amount of time...wow! Geisinger Medical Center's ER was flooded with water.

[wolfie09]

You are probably familiar with those beautiful tropical waterspouts often photographed off the coast of Florida or in the Bahamas.

You might not know, however, that waterspouts are also common on the Great Lakes this time of the year.

In fact, this week, there was a multi-day waterspout outbreak on the Great Lakes that culminated Wednesday.

According to the International Centre for Waterspout Research (ICWR), 42 waterspouts or funnel clouds were confirmed that day alone – 41 over Lake Erie, and another one over Lake Ontario. The daily record for waterspouts on the Great Lakes at 67 on Oct. 20, 2013.

The Glossary of Meteorology defines a waterspout as "an intense columnar vortex – usually containing a funnel cloud – that occurs over a body of water and is connected to a cumuliform cloud."

In layman’s terms, that means a column of spinning air occurring over a body of water, connected to puffy cumulus clouds.

There are two types of waterspouts:

1. Tornadic: Associated with a rotating, supercell thunderstorm that produces extreme winds and damage. These are quite rare on the Great Lakes.

2. Fair-weather: A common type that occurs in generally fair weather without a connection to a dangerous supercell thunderstorm.

Fair-weather waterspouts typically have weak circulations and winds. The bigger ones produce wind gusts that can exceed 50 mph and flip a small boat or damage a dock if they come onshore.

Fortunately, these types of waterspouts also move relatively slowly and are most often visible over the flat expanse of the lake waters from a great distance, so there is ample time to get out of their way.

It also allows for some spectacular photos and videos.

Great Lakes waterspouts are also known as cold-air funnels. As the name implies, they occur when cooler air moves across the warmer waters of the Great Lakes.

By late July and early August, the Great Lakes are at their warmest. Water temperatures can rise to 80 degrees in the rather shallow water of Lake Erie.

 

The average air temperature and Lake Erie water temperature at Buffalo, New York, defines the various lake-effect seasons. The waterspout season on the Great Lakes generally matches that time of the year when the water temperature is warmer than the air temperature. In the graph above, it roughly covers the months of August through October, which coincides with the period when lake-effect rain showers occur.

 

There is a waterspout season – a subset of the same lake-effect season that produces those epic snowstorms in the late fall and winter on the Great Lakes.

Waterspout season typically ramps up in the latter part of July and lasts into October. August and September are the most common months for Great Lakes waterspouts.

Monthly waterspout frequency on the Great Lakes from 1994 through 2010. The season typically begins in late July and extends through October.

 

So what does cold air moving across warm water have to do with waterspouts?

When that cool air moves across the warmer water, a steep drop in the air temperature develops from the warm lake surface upward a few thousand feet in altitude through the cooler air.

The drop in temperature with height is referred to as the "lapse rate." A steep lapse rate allows warm air near the lake surface to become very buoyant and rise rapidly like a hot air balloon into the colder air above.

Soon, rapidly developing cumulus clouds build, and below those clouds, the updrafts in that buoyant air strengthen.

If the winds near the surface are relatively weak, it allows for small, organized rotations to develop, which are lifted into a vertical column below those cumulus clouds. That rotating column of air gets stretched with the updraft, resulting in the spin-up of a waterspout.

The favorable conditions for waterspout formation (i.e. cold air outbreaks across warm waters of the Great Lakes) can be forecast to some degree.

The most common weather pattern to bring those colder temperatures aloft is a closed upper-level low that moves across the Great Lakes.

The ICWR issues daily forecasts for the potential for waterspout activity across the Great Lakes.

If you live near the Great Lakes, watch for those upper-level lows, head out to the lakeshore and if you’re lucky, you might just see one of these wonders of nature develop right before your eyes.

And, as alluded to earlier, it also marks a change of seasons when we begin to see lake-effect precipitation increasingly possible, as the air temperature trends cooler than Great Lakes water temperatures.

It’s time to get ready for the lake-effect season as it brings all sorts of interesting weather from now through winter.

[BuffaloWeather]

+1.7 for the month so far, should be close to 90 tomorrow.

[Thinksnow18]

8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

+1.7 for the month so far, should be close to 90 tomorrow.

Should finish above normal for the month and maybe by quite a bit as well. Next ten days look to be about 5 degrees above average for daytime highs, and lows look warm too. 

[wolfie09]

Nice little storm moving through with heavy rain, nearing 1/2" liquid..

 

[Buffalo Bumble]

Race to 90 degrees. BUF currently at 88, Roc and Syr at 89. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I wanted to see if it was just me in how warm its been the last few years. I went through the monthly reporting data back to Aug of 2015 and we have had 40 months above normal with the majority of months well above normal (+3-+8 range)  December 2015 featured a +12 departure...INSANE

Since Aug of 2015 there have been 20 months with below normal temperatures. Those below normal temp months departures are very small compared to the warmer then average months. So on average right now for every month of below normal temps we get 2 with above. Global warming is real and its effects are evident in Upstate New York and increasing rapidly.

They're calling for a warmer fall and potentially warm winter as well. This is the new norm.

[BuffaloWeather]

89'd yesterday. We are up to like 10 89s on the year I believe. +2.7 for the month. 

I'll be heading up to the Adirondacks again this week. Doing a sunrise hike on Thursday, really excited as it's supposed to be beautiful. Lows look to be in the 50s in town and upper 30s/low 40s on the peaks. We're doing Algonquin, Iroqouis, Wright, Giant, and rocky ridge this week.

@Luke_Mages How was your gray and skylight hike? 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

89'd yesterday. We are up to like 10 89s on the year I believe. +2.7 for the month. 

I'll be heading up to the Adirondacks again this week. Doing a sunrise hike on Thursday, really excited as it's supposed to be beautiful. Lows look to be in the 50s in town and upper 30s/low 40s on the peaks. We're doing Algonquin, Iroqouis, Wright, Giant, and rocky ridge this week.

@Luke_Mages How was your gray and skylight hike? 

I've been dreading bringing that up here. So the trip was to celebrate my mother in laws birthday father in laws retirement. So we were guilted out of spending a whole day away from the family to make that hike.

We did get the whole family up to the top of Hackensack which was interesting because i got to carry my 60lb nephew up a pretty rocky scramble.

We did plan a return trip this october to attemp Marcy, Gray and Skylight with just my wife and the dogs so weather permitting that should be a beautiful hike.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

I've been dreading bringing that up here. So the trip was to celebrate my mother in laws birthday father in laws retirement. So we were guilted out of spending a whole day away from the family to make that hike.

We did get the whole family up to the top of Hackensack which was interesting because i got to carry my 60lb nephew up a pretty rocky scramble.

We did plan a return trip this october to attemp Marcy, Gray and Skylight with just my wife and the dogs so weather permitting that should be a beautiful hike.

Two really nice shorter hikes that are not high peaks are Mt Jo and Ampersand. Would definitely recommend those 2 for a nice hike and view. October would be perfect as the colors should be in full bloom. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wanted to see if it was just me in how warm its been the last few years. I went through the monthly reporting data back to Aug of 2015 and we have had 40 months above normal with the majority of months well above normal (+3-+8 range)  December 2015 featured a +12 departure...INSANE

Since Aug of 2015 there have been 20 months with below normal temperatures. Those below normal temp months departures are very small compared to the warmer then average months. So on average right now for every month of below normal temps we get 2 with above. Global warming is real and its effects are evident in Upstate New York and increasing rapidly.

They're calling for a warmer fall and potentially warm winter as well. This is the new norm.

That really is remarkable. April was such a blip on a warm landscape. Good research. 

[vortmax]

Just went the the NHC site to check things out and saw this old map. How often do you see something so far north over land in Canada with tropical storm winds over Quebec City?

[Thinksnow18]

17 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

That really is remarkable. April was such a blip on a warm landscape. Good research. 

I wouldn't be surprised if colors start peering over the high peaks in the next 2 week's in the Adirondacks. All next week at lower elevations is low to mid 70's with nighttime lows in the 50's...is this summer's last gasp of sustained heat?