Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yep this ones done for. Nothing more than some steady rain today with an occasional clap of thunder and lightning. Not enough time to break into any sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. Oh well at least we’re getting some rain.

While I think this is probably true, as the actual shortwave moves through this evening it brings impressive lift and dynamics. The low levels will still be somewhat ripe. Could be some surprises. Don’t lose faith yet!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yep this ones done for. Nothing more than some steady rain today with an occasional clap of thunder and lightning. Not enough time to break into any sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. Oh well at least we’re getting some rain.

Yeah, has been raining here all morning. Cells just keep popping up. It's actually chilly outside. Not the environment for strong storms this afternoon. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York...
  Southwestern Erie County in western New York...
  Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York...

* Until 445 PM EDT..

* At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dunkirk,
  moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Greatest risk for strong to severe storms still likely in time range
from mid afternoon into early this evening. Strong winds aloft tied
to the MCV results in effective shear over 40 kts which is strong
for middle of summer with low-level shear 25-30+kts also strong. The
shear combined with seasonable instability (highs in the mid 80s
with dewpoints in the mid 60s) with MLCAPES 1000-1500j/kg and DCAPES
to around 1000j/kg sets the stage for storms with damaging winds the
primary threat, but not the only threat. Within slight risk over
WNY, SPC probs have WNY in a 5 pct risk for tornado (increased from
ydy) which is pretty rare for our severe weather season. Looking at
parameters specific to forecasting tornado potential (STP, LCL,
effective helicity) we are looking to be on the high end for past
tornado days in WNY. Continue to mention this risk in the HWO. It
certainly looks justified. Best potential will be mid to late
afternoon as storms will initially be discrete with possible
supercells. Eventually though given the strong 0-1km shear and the
approaching front, storms should become linear as they move east
toward Genesee valley and perhaps western Finger Lakes/SE Lake
Ontario region with gusty to damaging winds the prime threat.
Finally, torrential downpours will be likely in any storm as PWATS
surge to over 2 inches. Storms will be moving, so would likely need
to have training storms for larger flooding risk.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York...
  Southern Erie County in western New York...
  Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York...

* Until 445 PM EDT..

* At 406 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Silver Creek, or 8 miles east of Dunkirk, moving
  northeast at 20 mph.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...