tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Watch will be going up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 And 1 min later a watch. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yep this ones done for. Nothing more than some steady rain today with an occasional clap of thunder and lightning. Not enough time to break into any sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. Oh well at least we’re getting some rain. While I think this is probably true, as the actual shortwave moves through this evening it brings impressive lift and dynamics. The low levels will still be somewhat ripe. Could be some surprises. Don’t lose faith yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Sw ny starting to get some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yep this ones done for. Nothing more than some steady rain today with an occasional clap of thunder and lightning. Not enough time to break into any sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. Oh well at least we’re getting some rain. Yeah, has been raining here all morning. Cells just keep popping up. It's actually chilly outside. Not the environment for strong storms this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 3K is less impressive, decent storm into northern Erie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Pouring in Williamsville. I think the setup has been destroyed by all this rain out ahead if the front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Some pretty good bouts of rain moving through, only tenth inch liquid so far.. Edit: Near 1/2" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Birds can finally take a bath.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southwestern Erie County in western New York... Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 445 PM EDT.. * At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dunkirk, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Dew point up to 71 in kROC. It’s juicy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 Greatest risk for strong to severe storms still likely in time range from mid afternoon into early this evening. Strong winds aloft tied to the MCV results in effective shear over 40 kts which is strong for middle of summer with low-level shear 25-30+kts also strong. The shear combined with seasonable instability (highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s) with MLCAPES 1000-1500j/kg and DCAPES to around 1000j/kg sets the stage for storms with damaging winds the primary threat, but not the only threat. Within slight risk over WNY, SPC probs have WNY in a 5 pct risk for tornado (increased from ydy) which is pretty rare for our severe weather season. Looking at parameters specific to forecasting tornado potential (STP, LCL, effective helicity) we are looking to be on the high end for past tornado days in WNY. Continue to mention this risk in the HWO. It certainly looks justified. Best potential will be mid to late afternoon as storms will initially be discrete with possible supercells. Eventually though given the strong 0-1km shear and the approaching front, storms should become linear as they move east toward Genesee valley and perhaps western Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region with gusty to damaging winds the prime threat. Finally, torrential downpours will be likely in any storm as PWATS surge to over 2 inches. Storms will be moving, so would likely need to have training storms for larger flooding risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Things really ramping up on lake erie shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 And a tornado warning for silver creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 This cell looks intense. Rotation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Tornado Warning near Silver Creek. Velocity scan looks pretty impressive, wouldn’t doubt there’s a tornado OTG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southern Erie County in western New York... Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 445 PM EDT.. * At 406 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Silver Creek, or 8 miles east of Dunkirk, moving northeast at 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 Just got home from work, going to chase! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just got home from work, going to chase! Careful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Just got home and absolute gully washer here and by the looks of things it’s been like this for a while... pleasantly surprised figured the cloud cover was gonna squash things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Any ground confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 Where should I go? South of Colden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Where should I go? South of Colden? I’d say that’s a good bet. The little bit of rotation I can still see on radar is moving more due East due towards Colden area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 Wolf keep posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 In clearing !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 I’m at Genesee 219 exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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