lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, brentrich said: Any signs of fall coming yet? Yup another stretch of upper 80s low 90d end of this week into next weekend! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, brentrich said: Any signs of fall coming yet? The sun is getting lower in the sky every day above the arctic circle but a place like Barrow, AK still has 24 hours of sunlight. By August 1 the sun finally dips below the horizon for a half an hour. The lengthening of night is amazing, by the end of August, Barrow has 4 hours of the sun below the horizon. On September 24 day and night are equal and the buildup of cold air should be starting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 Reports: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: The sun is getting lower in the sky every day above the arctic circle but a place like Barrow, AK still has 24 hours of sunlight. By August 1 the sun finally dips below the horizon for a half an hour. The lengthening of night is amazing, by the end of August, Barrow has 4 hours of the sun below the horizon. On September 24 day and night are equal and the buildup of cold air should be starting. I guess I gotta hang in there a little bit longer, sick of heat/humidity already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Had a quick surprise storm here a little while ago. Pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Some obs from the cottage up on Chaumont Bay...It’s tropical! Water temp has to be at least 80. Obnoxiously warm actually as you don’t get much relief when swimming. Had a localized monsoon fire up last night from about 3-5am. Tropical-like downpours have been popping up all morning with sky high humidity, locally enhanced I’m guessing by the super warm water. Pretty cool conditions fueled i would guess in part by the freak 7 day heat bonanza that laid down a blanket of ambient heat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Some obs from the cottage up on Chaumont Bay...It’s tropical! Water temp has to be at least 80. Obnoxiously warm actually as you don’t get much relief when swimming. Had a localized monsoon fire up last night from about 3-5am. Tropical-like downpours have been popping up all morning with sky high humidity, locally enhanced I’m guessing by the super warm water. Pretty cool conditions fueled i would guess in part by the freak 7 day heat bonanza that laid down a blanket of ambient heat. Our ground here is still bone dry, so I'm all for a couple more inches of rain over the next couple of days. This type of environment should be conducive to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Our ground here is still bone dry, so I'm all for a couple more inches of rain over the next couple of days. This type of environment should be conducive to that. Thats crazy, you guys got 2-3 inches of rain. Are you on a hill where it really runs off? I have standing water in portions of my yard still today. I thankfully won't need to water anything for a good 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Thats crazy, you guys got 2-3 inches of rain. Are you on a hill where it really runs off? I have standing water in portions of my yard still today. I thankfully won't need to water anything for a good 5-7 days. We're just east of the bullseye of 3+" of rain. I don't have a measure, but we probably picked up half that over double the time - and it soaked it very quickly. The topsoil here is quite thin with a lot of clay underneath so maybe that plays a roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 13, 2020 Author Share Posted July 13, 2020 Tornado warning Jefferson county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tornado warning Jefferson county Anything come of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2020 Author Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Anything come of this? nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2020 Author Share Posted July 14, 2020 Lake erie is at another all time high for the date at 77 degs. It's been setting records the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake erie is at another all time high for the date at 77 degs. It's been setting records the last few days. Crazy. It might tickle 80 this year. Is the all time high 81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 14, 2020 Author Share Posted July 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Crazy. It might tickle 80 this year. Is the all time high 81? 80. 5 different days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: 80. 5 different days I believe the water quality starts to suffer the warmer the lake waters get...on the other hand when we cool down towards Sept there will be thunderstorms developing at night due to the cooler air...the very first signs if lake effect... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I believe the water quality starts to suffer the warmer the lake waters get...on the other hand when we cool down towards Sept there will be thunderstorms developing at night due to the cooler air...the very first signs if lake effect... I’m really hoping for a good lake effect season. We didn’t have one good band all of last year. We are due!! After this summer I’m really going to want a solid winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 9 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I believe the water quality starts to suffer the warmer the lake waters get...on the other hand when we cool down towards Sept there will be thunderstorms developing at night due to the cooler air...the very first signs if lake effect... I think we have really missed out on early season lake effect rain in recent years. Septembers have been warmer than normal, with a cooling trend so gradual we miss out on the delta t’s needed for convection (lake effect rain) in the early fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 I see the “T” word in the forecast discussion by BUF and some local mets for tomorrow afternoon and night. Looks like some interesting weather incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I see the “T” word in the forecast discussion by BUF and some local mets for tomorrow afternoon and night. Looks like some interesting weather incoming. Only 2%, typical media over blowing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Only 2%, typical media over blowing things. I think that’s all there was July 2017 when the Hamburg/OP tornado hit, along with one in Holland and one in Allegany Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I think that’s all there was July 2017 when the Hamburg/OP tornado hit, along with one in Holland and one in Allegany Co. II'm pretty sure it was 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 KBUF sounds intrigued. Ridge pushes east of the area Thursday as a shortwave trough, and its associated surface cold front advance out of the Midwest. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front sweeps into the area late Thursday and Thursday night. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by late afternoon with increasingly favorable shear profiles. Locally damaging winds look to be the main threat, though an isolated tornado is possible, with backed low level flow veering with height creating strongly curved/favorable hodographs, suggestive of strong organized convection with rotating cells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 What a great storm that was. Hit 1 mile from my apartment. EF2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Only 2%, typical media over blowing things. Ummm a 2% chance of tornados in WNY is orders of magnitude higher than on an average day. Don’t be deceived by percentages. This is the same mindset that a 1% death rate from covid is nothing to worry about (that equates to 3.3million dead Americans) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 39 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Ummm a 2% chance of tornados in WNY is orders of magnitude higher than on an average day. Don’t be deceived by percentages. This is the same mindset that a 1% death rate from covid is nothing to worry about (that equates to 3.3million dead Americans) I agree, but we've had a couple 5% days in WNY last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 43 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Ummm a 2% chance of tornados in WNY is orders of magnitude higher than on an average day. Don’t be deceived by percentages. This is the same mindset that a 1% death rate from covid is nothing to worry about (that equates to 3.3million dead Americans) This is what everyone is talking about. On their Facebook page. Misleading title “A tornado in Western New York tomorrow!!! The weather could get nuts by tomorrow afternoon.” https://wyrk.com/an-isolated-tornado-is-possible-on-thursday-in-wny/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 I wanna say I have seen 10 percent chances in wny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is what everyone is talking about. On their Facebook page. Misleading title “A tornado in Western New York tomorrow!!! The weather could get nuts by tomorrow afternoon.” https://wyrk.com/an-isolated-tornado-is-possible-on-thursday-in-wny/ I fully agree that the average person still completely blows it when attempting to interpret a forecast. I saw some similar posts where people just assume that a tornado will be coming through at some set time tomorrow. These are the reasons I never became a pro forecaster, you work so hard only to be have idiots misunderstand your forecast and then ridicule like you were wrong and they were right. It must be so frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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