Upstate/Eastern New York

[cny rider]

Lake effect rain showers this morning......its coming!

 

[TugHillMatt]

17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Felt like autumn today. This isn't good. Watch us go into a cold pattern Sep-Nov and then warm Dec-Feb...You just know it's coming. We've been stuck in a warm pattern June-August. It was cold for April-May. Patterns tend to stick for awhile.

 

 

Eh, not so sure about that. We have been forecasted to have several day cool downs the past couple weeks and this upcoming week...and then as we end up closer they become a one day cool-down and then it's back to the 80s again. WARM is the rule anymore...

[Thinksnow18]

12 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Eh, not so sure about that. We have been forecasted to have several day cool downs the past couple weeks and this upcoming week...and then as we end up closer they become a one day cool-down and then it's back to the 80s again. WARM is the rule anymore...

Yeah all the long range temps have been bumped up a bit already...seems like the warm bias continues

[wolfie09]

The Winter is coming, apparently with a vengeance.

The Farmers’ Almanac recently released its extended forecast for the 2020-2021 season, which shows this upcoming winter could be brutally cold and snowy for much of the country.

“Based on our time-tested weather formula, the forecast for the upcoming winter looks a lot different from last year, quite divided with some very intense cold snaps and snowfall,” editor Peter Geiger said in a statement.

According to the forecast, those who live in the northern half of the country should get ready for extended bouts of cold.

Long-range forecasts from the periodical are calling for normal to below-normal temperatures in areas from the Great Lakes and Midwest stretching westward over the Northern and Central Plains and into the Rockies.

Areas around the Great Lakes are also expected to see a "fair share of snow," but above-normal snowfall is also expected farther west from the western Dakotas into northern portions of Colorado and Utah, as well as Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and central and eastern sections of Washington and Oregon.

While the Northeast saw barely any snow last winter, the Farmers' Almanac is predicting something "very different" for this upcoming season

The big cities in the Northeast, as well as parts of the Mid-Atlantic, may see a blizzard during the second week of February, with 1 to 2 feet of snow in places from Washington, D.C. to Boston. Another big snowstorm may also target the East Coast during the final week of March, with "significant" late-season snowfall.

 

The forecast outlook also calls for a "significant snowfall" at the start of February for eastern Ohio and Kentucky, while the Southern Plains are also expected to see plenty of wintry precipitation during the same month.

While northern and eastern parts of the country deal with the cold and snow, the Desert Southwest is expected to have a dry and mild winter, which could worsen drought conditions.

Coastal areas along the West Coast could see a rainy and wet winter ahead, but areas in between have been dubbed by the periodical as the "crazy in-between," with periods of tranquil and stormy weather.

Some of the regions that could see the stormiest weather stretch from the Tennessee and lower Ohio River valleys up through New England, where storms could line up and bring wintry mix throughout the season.

The Farmers’ Almanac says it bases its long-range forecast "on a mathematical and astronomical formula developed in 1818."

 

It's not to be confused with the rival Old Farmer's Almanac, billed as the oldest periodical in North America, which also issues seasonal weather forecasts.

If you're looking for a milder winter ahead, Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for "light winter" for most of the U.S., with warmer-than-normal temperatures for a large part of the country.

[wolfie09]

[Thinksnow18]

So...that nice blue graph that BW posted at the top of the page has legs after all...just read the latest AFD from buf and it states:

Looking further into next week, the pattern appears that it will
become even more amplified pushing into mid week with the coolest
air of the season poised to pour across the upper Midwest and
Mississippi Valley, of which a chunk of this will eventually make
its` way over this way later in the week. Tough to iron out the
finer details at this point, but it looks like there could be a very
`interesting` stretch of weather headed our way for next week. Stay
tuned!

&&

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So...that nice blue graph that BW posted at the top of the page has legs after all...just read the latest AFD from buf and it states:

Looking further into next week, the pattern appears that it will
become even more amplified pushing into mid week with the coolest
air of the season poised to pour across the upper Midwest and
Mississippi Valley, of which a chunk of this will eventually make
its` way over this way later in the week. Tough to iron out the
finer details at this point, but it looks like there could be a very
`interesting` stretch of weather headed our way for next week. Stay
tuned!

&&

You know the earth is warming when a cool-down becomes an "interesting" event.  Unless there's flurries involved...lol

[Buckeyes_Suck]

12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You know the earth is warming when a cool-down becomes an "interesting" event.  Unless there's flurries involved...lol

Ya the only thing that could be interesting in my book would be some sort of prolonged lake effect rain event.

[wolfie09]

Not sure what"interesting" means lol Low to mid 70s? Because that's the forecast for lower elevations..

[BuffaloWeather]

43 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You know the earth is warming when a cool-down becomes an "interesting" event.  Unless there's flurries involved...lol

The earth is warming and its getting quicker...We may never have another good winter again. Just insane stuff in this post. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

With August officially over. Buf ended August with a +3.9 departure. Not sure where this ranks for warmest summers ever. 

June +.8

July +6.5

Aug + 3.9

[BuffaloWeather]

Chicago had its warmest summer ever. Many places in the midwest and northeast did. That buffalo figure is as off Aug 30th. After yesterday we're likely 72.8 or 72.9. 2nd warmest summer ever. 

https://wgntv.com/weather/meteorological-summer-of-2020-ends-as-the-warmest-on-record/

https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2020/09/2020-was-the-hottest-summer-ever-in-harrisburg-several-other-pa-cities.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/buffalos-summer-on-track-to-be-one-of-the-warmest-on-record/ar-BB18tM2X

[BuffaloWeather]

Whens the last time a Dec, Jan, Feb landed us in the top 5 coldest winters ever? 2013-2014 was cold, but did it rank? 

Good article from WGRZ in relation to our local climate and its warming

https://www.wgrz.com/article/weather/how-weather-records-are-changing-in-buffalo/71-521656404

[TugHillMatt]

45 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Ya the only thing that could be interesting in my book would be some sort of prolonged lake effect rain event.

True. With current forecasts in the lower 70s for that time period, it doesn't look that impressive for lake effect.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Whens the last time a Dec, Jan, Feb landed us in the top 5 coldest winters ever? 2013-2014 was cold, but did it rank? 

I recall a very cold winter back in the early 2000s when I was at Penn State. I believe it was 2002-2003? Otherwise, besides a few fluke years, it's been mild thaw crap winters pretty much the entire duration of my life. I was born in 1981 right after a couple of great winter decades! Telling you guys...I have the power to bring on Global Warming/Climate change.    

[BuffaloWeather]

19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

True. With current forecasts in the lower 70s for that time period, it doesn't look that impressive for lake effect.

I recall a very cold winter back in the early 2000s when I was at Penn State. I believe it was 2002-2003? Otherwise, besides a few fluke years, it's been mild thaw crap winters pretty much the entire duration of my life. I was born in 1981 right after a couple of great winter decades! Telling you guys...I have the power to bring on Global Warming/Climate change.    

Now we know who to blame. Tug hills birth on this recent trend. 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Now we know who to blame. Tug hills birth on this recent trend. 

Please don't send a lynch mob of weather weenies after me.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Whens the last time a Dec, Jan, Feb landed us in the top 5 coldest winters ever? 2013-2014 was cold, but did it rank? 

Good article from WGRZ in relation to our local climate and its warming

https://www.wgrz.com/article/weather/how-weather-records-are-changing-in-buffalo/71-521656404

Didnt we have our all time coldest month on record in feb 15'?

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Didnt we have our all time coldest month on record in feb 15'?

Yes, but I'm talking about coldest winters overall. 2014-2015 was not even in the top 20 I don't believe despite the cold Feb. ( I could be wrong) Look at the average temps throughout the decades. I know 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were cold winters. Not sure where they both rank though. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFtemp

[Buckeyes_Suck]

40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yes, but I'm talking about coldest winters overall. 2014-2015 was not even in the top 20 I don't believe despite the cold Feb. Look at the average temps throughout the decades.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFtemp

Yea Id say youre right.

Also looks like were getting more volatile from season to season.

[BuffaloWeather]

15 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Yea Id say youre right.

Also looks like were getting more volatile from season to season.

2012 is such a massive anomaly. What in the world caused that? 

[vortmax]

Check out the 1992-98 time frame. Didn't Mt. Pinatubo erupt in 1991 or something?

[TugHillMatt]

Our coldest years now are equal to the warmest years of the 60s and 70s.

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Our coldest years now are equal to the warmest years of the 60s and 70s.

Yep. People think global warming takes centuries to see. It's going so fast that you can just look at that graph and be blown away. In a century, average temps in Buffalo will be up several degrees. (1940-2040)

[TugHillMatt]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yep. People think global warming takes centuries to see. It's going so fast that you can just look at that graph and be blown away. In a century, average temps in Buffalo will be up several degrees. (1940-2040)

The graph does seems a bit incorrect for back in the 40s and 50s. The line looks like it should be higher with all those years averaging above 48. This would result in it looking like less exponential growth (not as steep and fast of a rise.) Looking at years before this might help to determine if that line is well-placed or not.

I definitely think we are warming...just questioning the rate based on those two decades earlier in the graph.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The graph does seems a bit incorrect for back in the 40s and 50s. The line looks like it should be higher with all those years averaging above 48. This would result in it looking like less exponential growth (not as steep and fast of a rise.) Looking at years before this might help to determine if that line is well-placed or not.

I definitely think we are warming...just questioning the rate based on those two decades earlier in the graph.

Its that or that the 60s and 70s were notably cold. If its cyclical then we should be at the end of a cool "period"

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Its that or that the 60s and 70s were notably cold. If its cyclical then we should be at the end of a cool "period"

True. From memory of looking at historical weather in the past, I believe the 20s and 30s were also particularly warm as well. Thinking Dust Bowl era...hottest summers on record in many areas of the U.S.

If it's cyclical, I would think we would start heading towards a cooler period....this next decade will definitely give us some better answers on that. These past 5 years certainly don't show any sign of heading into a cooler cycle.

[BuffaloWeather]

[TugHillMatt]

That could be a great clipper pattern for December if we can get some cold, dense air to settle in over the Great Lakes. Being in December, it could lead to some great events for the Buffalo area.

Just lock it in for 3 months.

[Thinksnow18]

So that cool down next week? Sounds alot like our winter the second half of last year...

Heading into the first part of the work week, still expecting deeper
troughing to take shape west of the area over the central U.S.,
bounded by upper ridging on its` eastern and western peripheries.
Meanwhile another area of surface low pressure will move from the
upper Great Lakes to northern Quebec Monday into Tuesday, with
another cold front trying to approach the area from the west.
Individual run to run model inconsistency, along with discrepancies
between the models persist at this time range. This continues to
make it difficult to determine just how far east the cold front will
make it, as the Bermuda ridge continues to strengthen over the
western Atlantic, building westward over the East Coast. Just how
far west/northwest the strong upper ridge can infiltrate will
eventually help determine if the actual surface front can near or
move into the area bringing the chance for some precipitation, or
instead remain off to the west of the region with mainly warm and
dry conditions prevailing. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will
remain a bit above normal on Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in
the mid to upper 70s.

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So that cool down next week? Sounds alot like our winter the second half of last year...

Heading into the first part of the work week, still expecting deeper
troughing to take shape west of the area over the central U.S.,
bounded by upper ridging on its` eastern and western peripheries.
Meanwhile another area of surface low pressure will move from the
upper Great Lakes to northern Quebec Monday into Tuesday, with
another cold front trying to approach the area from the west.
Individual run to run model inconsistency, along with discrepancies
between the models persist at this time range. This continues to
make it difficult to determine just how far east the cold front will
make it, as the Bermuda ridge continues to strengthen over the
western Atlantic, building westward over the East Coast. Just how
far west/northwest the strong upper ridge can infiltrate will
eventually help determine if the actual surface front can near or
move into the area bringing the chance for some precipitation, or
instead remain off to the west of the region with mainly warm and
dry conditions prevailing. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will
remain a bit above normal on Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in
the mid to upper 70s.

Good. Keep it warm until November.