BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I fully agree that the average person still completely blows it when attempting to interpret a forecast. I saw some similar posts where people just assume that a tornado will be coming through at some set time tomorrow. These are the reasons I never became a pro forecaster, you work so hard only to be have idiots misunderstand your forecast and then ridicule like you were wrong and they were right. It must be so frustrating. It drives me insane when people say that the weatherman are always wrong. "It's the only job in the world where you can be wrong all the time, and still keep your job". I always defend them, but literally 95% of people believe this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 From the BUF AFD: "In its attempt, the region will become oriented under the northern portions of the upper level ridge and have more of a zonal orientation." Could be a nice setup for some NW-to-SE MCS action which can traditionally produce some very intense storms (as we've already seen this season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Another soaking potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 18z High Res NAM really increased coverage and intensity of tomorrows convective event. I like the way its trending! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: 18z High Res NAM really increased coverage and intensity of tomorrows convective event. I like the way its trending! Really nice cell across Erie County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 MCV associated with current convection over Illinois will push a series of weak fronts through our region on Thursday...and this will lead to some showers and strong to severe storms. Damaging wind gusts main threat...but backing winds blo 4kft could provide enough shear for isolated tornado. MOST prone time for severe weather will be from 2 PM til 10 PM Thursday...although its possible that convection could be problematic before that time. Far western New York remains in a slight risk area as defined by the Storm Prediction Center... with the remainder of the forecast area in a marginal risk area for severe weather. Strong convection Thursday evening weakens to scattered showers overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 SPC discussion: There is some concern that this precipitation and/or cloud debris may limit diurnal destabilization across eastern OH into parts of western PA/NY. Regardless, modestly enhanced (30-40 kt) mid-level flow coupled with even weak destabilization along/ahead of the front should prove sufficient for storm organization by early Thursday afternoon. Multicells and small bowing line segments should be the primary storm mode given the linear nature of the low-level forcing mechanism (front), but an embedded supercell or two cannot be ruled out with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear expected. Strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as low-level lapse rates modestly steepen ahead of the morning storms/clouds. Some enhancement to the low-level flow suggests a brief tornado cannot be ruled out either, mainly across eastern OH and western PA/NY vicinity. These strong to severe storms should quickly weaken into central PA/NY by Thursday evening as low-level moisture and related instability decrease with eastward extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: SPC discussion: There is some concern that this precipitation and/or cloud debris may limit diurnal destabilization across eastern OH into parts of western PA/NY. Regardless, modestly enhanced (30-40 kt) mid-level flow coupled with even weak destabilization along/ahead of the front should prove sufficient for storm organization by early Thursday afternoon. Multicells and small bowing line segments should be the primary storm mode given the linear nature of the low-level forcing mechanism (front), but an embedded supercell or two cannot be ruled out with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear expected. Strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as low-level lapse rates modestly steepen ahead of the morning storms/clouds. Some enhancement to the low-level flow suggests a brief tornado cannot be ruled out either, mainly across eastern OH and western PA/NY vicinity. These strong to severe storms should quickly weaken into central PA/NY by Thursday evening as low-level moisture and related instability decrease with eastward extent. Buckle up. Tomorrow could be nice and active! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 21 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Only 2%, typical media over blowing things. Up to 5% today now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Up to 5% today now. Definitely rare! 3k shows a nice line of storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Looks like a pretty thick cloud deck in WNY. Wonder if that will limit severe potential there later. BUF still bullish per the SWS issued this morning. Conversely, full sun here at Chaumont with a roaring south wind. Hoping to see some storms roll across the lake later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Sun out in rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Sun out in rochester. Looks like some possible super cells over lake Erie out ahead of the main line of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Would think there will be a enhanced area in any. New short range models hitting buffalo to roc pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looks like some possible super cells over lake Erie out ahead of the main line of storms? Yeah, they look impressive. Anyone with views down the lake right now, please post pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Sim echo tops on hrrr near 50000 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Looks like a pretty thick cloud deck in WNY. Wonder if that will limit severe potential there later. BUF still bullish per the SWS issued this morning. Conversely, full sun here at Chaumont with a roaring south wind. Hoping to see some storms roll across the lake later. Yeah full cloud cover here. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Hrrr going to town on western fingerlakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Starting to see the cloud deck thinning out over central Ohio. I’m thinking that clearing keeps pushing our way and burning off with the midday sun. If we can start getting some sun by noonish should provide us a 2 hour window to destabilize things further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Starting to see the cloud deck thinning out over central Ohio. I’m thinking that clearing keeps pushing our way and burning off with the midday sun. If we can start getting some sun by noonish should provide us a 2 hour window to destabilize things further. Looks like all of Erie County about to get round one...just heard a good boom of thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Incoming! Just had a huge crack of thunder shake the whole house! Looks like BUF is about to get a good raking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looks like all of Erie County about to get round one...just heard a good boom of thunder... We really want full sunshine until this afternoon. These smalls storms might mess up this afternoons potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We really want full sunshine until this afternoon. These smalls storms might mess up this afternoons potential. Maybe, or it helps to destabilize the atmosphere if this line gets through fast enough and sunshine breaks out...but im with you i think this will dampen the opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2020 Author Share Posted July 16, 2020 ...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon... While some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the western counties later this morning and during the midday...the ingredients will come together for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours. The greatest severe weather threat will come from damaging wind gusts, although there will be the risk for tornadic activity...particularly across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Thing western fingerlakes roc area has double whammy threat today. Severe and flooding risks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Maybe, or it helps to destabilize the atmosphere if this line gets through fast enough and sunshine breaks out...but im with you i think this will dampen the opportunity. If the first batch can soak the ground a bit and then we break into a few hours of sun that would be the ideal setup. Would love to see the DP's jump into the upper 60's to 70 with a little extra low level juice. It's a risky scenario though, the first round of showers will definitely steal some CAPE and leave the lower levels slightly more stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 1240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161618Z - 161815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across eastern OH, western PA, and far western NY over the next few hours. Conditions are favorable for some severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. A tornado or two is also possible. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over far southern Lower MI, with a cold front extending back south-southwestward through western OH and southern IN. A pre-frontal trough also arcs eastward and then southwest across OH. Some deep cumulus has been noted in the vicinity of this pre-frontal trough over the past half hour. Deeper cloud billows have also been noted across eastern OH and into western PA, where air mass destabilization is occurring amid filtered daytime heating and low-level moisture advection. Expectation is destabilization and forcing for ascent along the two surface boundaries (augmented by ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough) to persist, resulting in scattered thunderstorm development from eastern OH into western PA. Enhanced low-level flow throughout the eastern periphery of the shortwave trough will support moderate low-level shear and the potential for a few stronger, more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even tornado or two. The best overlap between ongoing storms and the enhanced low-level flow is anticipated over northwest PA and far western NY. Some interaction with the warm front is also possible across western NY. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary severe threat, but these conditions lead to a relatively greater tornado potential in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 I think this current light rain is screwing everything up for later this afternoon. Every time the rain slows or stops it picks right back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think this current light rain is screwing everything up for later this afternoon. Every time the rain slows or stops it picks right back up again. Yep this ones done for. Nothing more than some steady rain today with an occasional clap of thunder and lightning. Not enough time to break into any sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. Oh well at least we’re getting some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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