Upstate/Eastern New York

[Ericjcrash]

Euro is a crusher lol

[wolfie09]

Icon continues to slowly trend NW

 

[wolfie09]

Follow up system..

 

[cny rider]

Great disco from BGM:

Forecasting Spring snow storms is always a challenge in March
and April, so doing it in May doesn`t make it any easier. Seeing
the new 12Z Euro come in as I write this, doesn`t give a warm
fuzzy feeling either.

Shot of polar air (Yes, Polar Vortex) drops out of Ontario
Friday as surface low pushes eastward across Ohio Valley and
into Southern PA Friday afternoon/evening. As the two meet, low
pressure will start to rapidly deepen, but where exactly this
occurs and where the deepening surface low tracks will determine
who sees what, and how much. As mentioned, 12Z Euro is the most
aggressive guidance at this time, with strong frontogenetical
forcing/deformation band developing NW of the surface low. A
band of heavy precipitation (likely heavy snow) will develop
Friday evening. NAM and GFS are a bit further south than the
Euro, but still have some accumulating snow into the Southern
Tier, NE PA and into the Catskills...with higher elevations
doing the best as far as snowfall. For now, have played it
fairly conservative with the snowfall forecast, but based on the
trends in the model guidance, have definitely bumped up totals
from previous forecasts, with 1" to 3" likely across higher
elevations and less than an inch in the valleys.

As the surface low exits early Saturday morning, cold air
advection really gets cranking as upper trough/low settles into
Central NY. Cold northwest flow will keep high temperatures
only in the upper 30s to maybe lower 40s. Forecast soundings
show very steep lapse rates (8C/km) from the surface all the way
to 500 mb. With about 200 J/kg of SB CAPE, even considered
putting in thunder with the snow squalls that will be possible
(this is May 9th). Not expecting much in the way of accumulation
on Saturday, but short intense bursts of snow will be possible
through the day, with rates intense enough to accumulate while
snowing, but melting quickly after any snow shower ends. This
will likely be a situation where surface temperatures are 36 to
42 F and it is still able to snow due to the very cold air
aloft and the low sfc dew points (around 20F) allowing for
efficient wet- bulbing.

[wolfie09]

Looks like we are losing her.. Snow down to CNJ..

We should still see some may snow with the SW diving down..

[wolfie09]

That follow up wave could deliver some flakes as well..

 

[TugHillMatt]

Boy, you Central New Yorkers weren't kidding when you said Central NY sucks for synoptic snow. They either follow along the lakes and we get warm winds and rain...or they ride along the coast and we get whiffed to the SE...even in MAY! It's lake effect or nothing.

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Boy, you Central New Yorkers weren't kidding when you said Central NY sucks for synoptic snow. They either follow along the lakes and we get warm winds and rain...or they ride along the coast and we get whiffed to the SE...even in MAY! It's lake effect or nothing.

Central New York is historically the best place to be for synoptic. The hardest hit area rides about 20 miles inland from Ontario from Rochester to Syracuse. That's if you're not including lake enhanced into the equation. If you are the Chautauqua ridge is the best place to be.

[Ericjcrash]

Lol. 

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Central New York is historically the best place to be for synoptic. The hardest hit area rides about 20 miles inland from Ontario from Rochester to Syracuse. That's if you're not including lake enhanced into the equation. If you are the Chautauqua ridge is the best place to be.

Agreed. Northern finger lakes region is killer for synoptic. We probably get more synoptic snow storms than almost anywhere else. BUF is just a tic too far west and SE NY mixes. ADK’s are great but miss the moisture sometimes. ROC and SYR get the push on the Miller B’s and also are far enough SE to get in on the A’s west flank. 
Canadian came in pretty far NW. keeps it interesting.  

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Central New York is historically the best place to be for synoptic. The hardest hit area rides about 20 miles inland from Ontario from Rochester to Syracuse. That's if you're not including lake enhanced into the equation. If you are the Chautauqua ridge is the best place to be.

 

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Agreed. Northern finger lakes region is killer for synoptic. We probably get more synoptic snow storms than almost anywhere else. BUF is just a tic too far west and SE NY mixes. ADK’s are great but miss the moisture sometimes. ROC and SYR get the push on the Miller B’s and also are far enough SE to get in on the A’s west flank. 
Canadian came in pretty far NW. keeps it interesting.  

Interesting. Must be my perception from my two winters in this region. I know some of the local guys have said the Syracuse area is often in between events. Maybe it's the lack of lake enhancement the past couple winters (due to non-ideal storm tracks.)

[BuffaloWeather]

37 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Agreed. Northern finger lakes region is killer for synoptic. We probably get more synoptic snow storms than almost anywhere else. BUF is just a tic too far west and SE NY mixes. ADK’s are great but miss the moisture sometimes. ROC and SYR get the push on the Miller B’s and also are far enough SE to get in on the A’s west flank. 
Canadian came in pretty far NW. keeps it interesting.  

Yep, but Chautauqua ridge and SE Erie county (Boston Hills) still seem to beat you guys with the NW flow/upslope behind departing systems.

[BuffaloWeather]

34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Interesting. Must be my perception from my two winters in this region. I know some of the local guys have said the Syracuse area is often in between events. Maybe it's the lack of lake enhancement the past couple winters (due to non-ideal storm tracks.)

Yeah you simply cannot judge a locations winter on 2 seasons. You need decades worth of living here to get a good grasp. Syracuse has had many epic snowstorms in the past, you will see some incredible stuff in the next few years.

[wolfie09]

[winter_rules]

23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That may be the first time I have seen the expected snowfall map be much lower than the “high end amount.”  It strikes me as odd how often the high end amount is very close to the expected amount....and then we’re always disappointed when the storm underperforms.  That may just be my pessimistic perception after a terrible winter....I’ll try to pay more attention to it next winter.  

[Ericjcrash]

Hi-res RGEM is a crush job.

[crossbowftw3]

Overall though the models are slowly moving away from a more widespread heavier snow which makes sense.

still not counting on much more than a 1-3/3-5 deal, yet that doesn't matter as it'll for certain be the latest I've seen snow on record.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Where the hell is the rain forecasted today? Figures I drove the cage to work. 

[Ericjcrash]

Euro holds steady. This might actually happen.

[Ericjcrash]

Kuchera map is bordering insanity lol

[wolfie09]

Kbuf

Kbgm this morning..

 

[DeltaT13]

Some of the high res models now have KROC completely dry from Friday am until Monday. Seems hard to believe with such a cold pool aloft but I’d be fine with missing out completely if it was only going to be a glancing blow anyway. I either wanted to get legitimate measurable snow or nothing.  Maybe I can salvage some yard work yet this weekend. 

[TugHillMatt]

Getting thunderstorms here in the Syracuse region right now. Just had a very long, drawn-out rumble occur. 

And it wasn't coming from me...

[crossbowftw3]

18z Euro is (probably) the final nail in the coffin.

[Ericjcrash]

19 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

18z Euro is (probably) the final nail in the coffin.

Ugh. That's hideous 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Ugh. That's hideous 

Still count on a burst of snow but the writing on the wall was pretty evident

[Ericjcrash]

Both NAMs are dreadful. From too far SE at 18z to amped at 0z. Of course mega cold after the precip.

[Ericjcrash]

Only hope lies in the GFS... 

[Ericjcrash]

6z runs better across the board here... I guess that NW jog with the low last night was a blip. 2-4" looking good IMBY 

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

6z runs better across the board here... I guess that NW jog with the low last night was a blip. 2-4" looking good IMBY 

I’d consider anything this time of the year a huge bonus. I’ve never seen accumulating snow of any kind in my lifetime in May, not even a dusting. I’ve seen mangeled flakes and grapple in May before but that’s it.