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May Discobs 2020


George BM
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7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I was just about to run in here and be like Friday SVR bust?  Beat me to it. Ah well. Water the plants time, drink a beer time, and look to next week. B)

Weekend looks spectacular. I’ll start worrying about the drought Monday.

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23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm...some action on radar out toward the Shenandoah. Any chance it makes it to the urban corridor? Seems like some of the cooler air has already advected in so think it probably dies?

I would love for it to make it and see a quick storm... but I guess well see... SPC did leave us in SLGT in the 0100 OTLK and disco did mention region has 1500 to 2000 MLCAPE available 

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Evening AFD update confirms what @WxUSAF posted above... guess maybe?

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
922 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through tonight into early Saturday.
High pressure will build overhead Saturday night through early
next week. A warm front will move through the area Wednesday and
a weak cold front will stall out near the region late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Meso-analysis suggests that the airmass east of I-81 remains
highly sheared and unstable, which the 00Z LWX RAOB confirms.
Much of this area has yet to be worked over. Consequently,
showers driven by shortwave energy have been able to develop
once it reached this airmass...something which WoFS runs has
been suggesting all day. The latest output indicating that a
more solid line should develop as it lifts toward the
DC/Baltimore burbs by 11pm-midnight. Have already issued one
Severe Tstm Warning, and would not rule out a few more.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm...some action on radar out toward the Shenandoah. Any chance it makes it to the urban corridor? Seems like some of the cooler air has already advected in so think it probably dies?

       definitely weakening.    The evening period was always our best shot (if you back in the SVR thread, the guidance was pretty clear about this) at storms, but it's arriving just too late, as nocturnal cooling has really kicked in.

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Next couple days look like perfection for early summer.

Decent chance of the first 90 degree day on Wed for many as the trough departs and the upper ridge briefly shifts east. Luckily it looks to be very short lived. Maybe it will help fuel some decent storms when the cold front moves through later in the day.

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