North Balti Zen Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 What a glorious morning for a walk that was. Comfortable temp, light breeze, no humidity. Awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 Spent much of the day hiking in Shenandoah National Park. From Thornton Gap entrance to Big Meadows was socked in with fog reducing visibilty to near zero at times, a steady mist/drizzle and 57° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 Stupid ass weather. Can’t ever get more than a day or so of sun before it turns to shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 Had a storm roll thru less than an hour ago and drop .30 in about 10 minutes, another is on the door step and thundering loud currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 63 and cloudy with an eerie Stephen King fog rolling in. Good weather to landscape in front of the new shed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 Another 0.40 in 20 minutes from storm #2, 0.70 in 50 minutes, water running everywhere again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 24, 2020 Author Share Posted May 24, 2020 ^There's a tropical wave with a surface trough affecting Cuba and Florida with heavy rains now. A few models actually try to spin-up something weak (probably too weak for any tropical classification) from this. This would be especially true if the disturbance moves off the east coast of Florida, Georgia and into the Carolinas. Regardless, this would result in the high Pwats in the region by mid/late week. #Notanexpertopinion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 5 hours ago, Rvarookie said: Stupid ass weather. Can’t ever get more than a day or so of sun before it turns to shit Starting to think this might be the theme of the summer and we don't see any big heat. We're almost in June and it's been really cold and gloomy overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Starting to think this might be the theme of the summer and we don't see any big heat. We're almost in June and it's been really cold and gloomy overall. I just need to see the sun especially with all this stuff going on. It seems like even when we do get sun we have to wait until 10/11am befor things clear out. Past few sprigs haven’t felt too clean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Starting to think this might be the theme of the summer and we don't see any big heat. We're almost in June and it's been really cold and gloomy overall. I'm fine with cooler than average - summers get wayyyy too hot and muggy in these parts. Only exception would be to fuel some nice severe storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Eps mean showing a pretty moist flow aimed at us around that Atlantic high. Timing centered on Thursday. Pwats near 1.80 inches . Maby some heavy rainers. LWX in their afternoon AFD did mention this... but stated not many members showed a heavy rain threat for Wed-Thur... also maybe a severe threat on Friday .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front pushes in from the Midwest Friday, and with increasing warmth and humidity, probabilities are good that it will have decent instability to work with. Something to watch for severe potential Fri. In advance of that though, some model members of GFS and Euro ensembles show tropical moisture now over Florida heading into the Mid Atlantic in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Not a lock for heavy rain with many members not showing that, but something to watch for heavy rain potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Friday appears to be the better day for organized (severe?) storms with the front nearing. Looks like a true summer like day, with temps well into the 80s and high dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 There are also suggestions of the front slowing/stalling on guidance, so Saturday and possibly even Sunday could be on the humid side with more rain chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 GFS and GGEM show some rain Thursday as well. Haven’t seen euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS and GGEM show some rain Thursday as well. Haven’t seen euro. Euro has some showers on Thursday as well, mostly focused N-S from the bay to just west of I-95. Looks like there will be some rain associated with moist flow on the western side of the Atlantic high. Has a round of heavier showers on Friday, and then a line of convection on Saturday with what appears to be the actual front. Pretty juicy run overall. Widespread 1-2" +. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Ninj'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 73 and sunny. Perfect day at the lake 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 65 and still cloudy here. No complaints though- the warmth is on the doorstep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 72 and sun finally starting to poke through. Why does it take so long for sun to come out everyday? Are we stuck in some crap pattern that won’t let go until we hit 90s and roast? Or is this so I don’t start drinking at noon everyday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 70 with sun. Perfect day Yeah I think people were getting nervous with all the clouds this morning but knew it would clear. Started to really get better around 1230 down at the harbor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Still cloudy here! Temp is up to 68 though. Enjoyable day despite the lack of sun. Plenty of days of 80s and humidity in the very hear future. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Foggy morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 61 and clear in Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Dense fog here this morning. Hopefully the sun makes an appearance before dinner time today lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Sterling's latest ... The wave of low pressure to our south will move into our region late Wednesday and into Thursday. Situ awareness ensembles are indicating anomalous moisture with this system which suggests that moderate to heavy rain will be possible with this low. As PW will be upwards of 1.74 to 2 inches , there will be a threat for localized flooding / flash flooding on Thursday. Increasing daytime temps and moisture during late morning to early afternoon periods on Thursday will prime the environment to be modestly unstable. Models have the potential for 500 to 1500 J/KG of CAPE but shear and forcing will be lacking. Thunderstorms will be possible mainly during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening periods but the severe threat will be limited due to lack of shear and forcing. I can`t rule out some isolated instances of strong thunderstorms but I expect the main threat for Thursday to be isolated instances of flooding as PW`s are high but low level instability remains weak with this low. The better severe threat will be on Friday as a cold front approaches and moves through our area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday is still shaping up to be one of the most active days of the week in terms of convective potential. In an amplified upper flow pattern, ridges will be located over the Atlantic and Desert Southwest, while a closed low in the deep south becomes absorbed by a digging northern stream trough. A surface cold front ahead of the trough will approach but likely won`t reach the area during the daylight hours of Friday. However, there will be height falls and a warm/humid/moist airmass in place. Thus, numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely develop with peak heating. While some strong storms are possible, marginal shear and questions about cloud cover/heating could be limiting factors. Localized flooding could be a bigger threat due to precipitable water values of 1.5-2 inches and potential for slow storm motions. However, the lack of a low level forcing feature and weak shear may mean the storms could tend to pulse and propagate by means of cold pool interactions/initiation. The threat may also be dependent on the preceding amount of rain since some areas have been dry lately. Continues to look like an interesting period upcoming. Mount Holly's thoughts- Quote Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of these systems. The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight differences in the track of the system, and given the rather compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the stronger convective cores. Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday night with the approach of a strong cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 ^^^^ This week could well bring more rain than last week when we were initially expecting 2+ inches at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Dense fog here this morning. Hopefully the sun makes an appearance before dinner time today lol. I know, right. Just another cloudy, damn and shitty morning. It looked like it me a decent morning at around 7. Then the fog and mist rolled in right on time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Left the house in Dundalk at 830, was foggy, cloudy and a little misty but once I got to about Parkville on 695, the sun popped and it’s been sunny here in Timonium area since I got to the park here at 9am. Great day to park watch and make sure nobody breaks any rules! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 After sitting outside here for a half hour it’s actually a little more humid than desired and kinda hot already lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Rest of the week looks to turn cooler and wetter. Shocker. We might be struggling to get out of the 60s this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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