CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Looks like this whole week of wet/cold weather is going 'poof' real fast. I called this one early. Not what I wanted, just kinda saw it coming Need some rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 8 hours ago, snowfan said: So the 18z GFS keeps most of us dry til late wednesday now? The tropical low is going to miss east, and high pressure from eastern Canada will have an opening to build southward down the east coast. With that, the upper low will dig and cutoff well west. The good rains will be in the mountains south and west of our region. SW burbs of DC have the best chance in the metro area of seeing some decent rain this week, while places further north and east, like my yard, its gonna be paltry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Here is the picture at the surface- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 17, 2020 Author Share Posted May 17, 2020 48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The tropical low is going to miss east, and high pressure from eastern Canada will have an opening to build southward down the east coast. With that, the upper low will dig and cutoff well west. The good rains will be in the mountains south and west of our region. SW burbs of DC have the best chance in the metro area of seeing some decent rain this week, while places further north and east, like my yard, its gonna be paltry. Don't forget places immediately to your east and southeast like VA beach, the lower Virginia peninsula and Delaware getting into Arthur's rains as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 1 minute ago, George BM said: Don't forget places immediately to your east and southeast like VA beach, the lower Virginia peninsula and Delaware getting into Arthur's rains as well. Yeah SBY - OC MD up to SE NJ may get a few hours of decent rain. Its gonna be close though, as it appears that it will be turning more eastward as it moves north. Maybe I can get a random shower on the western fringe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Showers around this morning and 59 degrees. Rare to hit on a 20% POP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 The end of the week may offer the better chance of significant rains for northeastern parts of the region, as the cutoff low gets picked up and moves towards the coast, closer to the thermal gradient. Could pop a surface low along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rainfall contest still on? Looks bone dry through Thursday here. Only shot at rain looks to be Friday when what's left of the ull circulation finally lifts ne and throws some showers or drizzle our way .( Northeast Md pummeled ) .......... with sprinkles I'll take dry vs drizzle for a week if I'm not tracking a 3-6" rain event . What looked very interesting a couple days ago on guidance has went poof . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 even though the rain went poof its still easterly flow diarrhea keeping us cool and cloudy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rainfall contest still on? That thread should be locked lol. I put my predictions in early. General idea still looks good, but I would drop the amounts proportionally across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: even though the rain went poof its still easterly flow diarrhea keeping us cool and cloudy I rather have the 3-6" of rain then another cloudy boring week with low 60's and drizzle. Cloudy, 60 with drizzle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rainfall contest still on? Looks bone dry through Thursday here. Only shot at rain looks to be Friday when what's left of the ull circulation finally lifts ne and throws some showers or drizzle our way .( Northeast Md pummeled ) .......... with sprinkles I'll take dry vs drizzle for a week if I'm not tracking a 3-6" rain event . What looked very interesting a couple days ago on guidance has went poof . Who's idea was that? He's a clown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Euro visibility actually suggests some sun tomorrow thru Wed Well if that's the case, then sunny with diarrhea easterly flow. At least its better than cloudy and damp, and as a bonus the temperatures might overperform during the day and it doesn't turn out so bad after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Yeah with the UL pretty far SW and that high nosing down, I would expect to see at least some sun here and there. Probably mostly cloudy, but not overcast the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Who's idea was that? He's a clown. My guess is looking pretty good ATM. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 GFS less than 1” precip though day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Time to move this discussion to the drought thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 While I only picked up 0.04, JUST (like within 2 miles) north and then north from there 2-5 inches fell in a 3 to 4 hour period yesterday evening. Storms just kept back building right on I-64 and pushing north. Northern Alleghany, Bath and western Rockbridge counties got hammered. Several mudslides, a couple road washouts and flooded buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Ummmm, BTW, I'll gladly take the 60's and drizzle if no one else wants it. We will have PLENTY of heat and humidity to spread and sadly share shortly...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: GFS less than 1” precip though day 10. EURO is really screwy with rainfall beyond D3 this spring it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 EPS mean has just under two tenths of rain thru friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Ummmm, BTW, I'll gladly take the 60's and drizzle if no one else wants it. We will have PLENTY of heat and humidity to spread and sadly share shortly...... I am totally down with an E to NE flow all week, with temps in the 60s. Even though there are showers in the forecast here for every period, it clearly wont be raining most of the time, and there should be some sunny periods as well. I'll take this while I can get it. We have had some days in the 70s and low 80s too, and the inevitable heat and humidity bath is coming, and when it does, it wont be leaving anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Beginning Friday, GEFS has highs in the 70s to low 80s straight through the end of the run, which is June 1. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 That sounds pretty perfect actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 I believe Mersky gave me the weenie icon for posting that good rains would be tough to come by up hereNot an ideal May week but I’ll take it over 3-4 days of showery weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I believe Mersky gave me the weenie icon for posting that good rains would be tough to come by up hereNot an ideal May week but I’ll take it over 3-4 days of showery weather That's his only response to any post. Its actually better that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 I believe May 8 was the last time measurable rain occurred here. Going on 10 days of dry, and not much of a chance this week either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Wait. What happened to my 5-6” of I-95 rain this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, Scraff said: Wait. What happened to my 5-6” of I-95 rain this week? Poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Larry Cosgrove calling for a loooong hot summer for much of the U.S with cooler anomalies in the Midwest. Through November lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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