May Discobs 2020

[JakkelWx]

40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro has rain through Saturday am

3-6" 

Ninjd 

It never really develops the sub tropical low . Not much of a vort signature or surface reflection. The ull is a beast though . 20-35 winds and rain or showers  for 4/5 days 

You know what they say up in the New England forum? Wheel-O-Rhea! Also known as a cutoff low that brings in crap weather for sometimes days at a time. What would be May without this?

[North Balti Zen]

38 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

You know what they say up in the New England forum? Wheel-O-Rhea! Also known as a cutoff low that brings in crap weather for sometimes days at a time. What would be May without this?

April?

[nj2va]

57 minutes ago, GATECH said:

I fall into this trap every year, open the pool early, surely this will be the year 90s return in may.... Enjoying my one pool day in May.  Maybe I get another tomorrow...Then lights out for a while...temp 84, cocktail is cold and alcoholic....

Sounds amazing!  Enjoy 

[H2O]

85° on my PWS and was 78° inside so gave in and turned the a/c on.  Beer is still cold so thats what i want anyways

[Eskimo Joe]

Definitely a step in the right direction for rainfall next week.

[poolz1]

The control never fails to impress.  Large area of 5"+ with a WV panhandle/NOVA bullseye 

 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I nominate you!

Maybe DCA  BwI and HGR?

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Maybe DCA  BwI and HGR?

You’re a thinker. Should definitely include something west’ish. Go for it!

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Maybe DCA  BwI and HGR?

What about EZF or CHO?  Or SHD?

[WVclimo]

Still 80 here at the 8:53 p.m. ob, after a high of 85.  Had to put on the AC.  Looking forward to a week of 60’s/ 70’s and soaking rain.

[Eskimo Joe]

Thinking tomorrow is a good day to set down more grass seed and patch the lawn a bit more before we get a week of wet weather.

[KamuSnow]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Thinking tomorrow is a good day to set down more grass seed and patch the lawn a bit more before we get a week of wet weather.

If you get the kind of rain you're hoping for, it could move the dirt and seed around a little bit. Then again, it's the weather - you never really know. I'll usually roll the dice, but I've also had my share of do-overs. Sometimes that ideal stretch of weather is hard to come by, and sometimes it happens when it's not expected. Like if you got 1" total of rain next week, that would be great for germination. It makes it interesting.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

If you get the kind of rain you're hoping for, it could move the dirt and seed around a little bit. Then again, it's the weather - you never really know. I'll usually roll the dice, but I've also had my share of do-overs. Sometimes that ideal stretch of weather is hard to come by, and sometimes it happens when it's not expected. Like if you got 1" total of rain next week, that would be great for germination. It makes it interesting.

You can also add in that spring is not a good time to plant grass other than maybe to help fill bare spots. Sure if you get a wet summer it can work but under normal summer conditions that new grass has to be pampered if it’s gonna survive until fall. Getting grass to germinate in spring is super easy. Keeping it alive through the summer isn’t so easy.

[KamuSnow]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You can also add in that spring is not a good time to plant grass other than maybe to help fill bare spots. Sure if you get a wet summer it can work but under normal summer conditions that new grass has to be pampered if it’s gonna survive until fall. Getting grass to germinate in spring is super easy. Keeping it alive through the summer isn’t so easy.

Agree 100%. Not enough of a root system to take the heat, although semi shaded areas could have a chance. Usually when I seed in the spring it's a temporary aesthetic fix and maybe to reduce erosion, but I pretty much count on re-doing it in the fall.

I understand Eskimo's desire to get some nice grass going, but I found some humor in wanting 6" or more of rain next week right after seeding. An internal conflict, lol.

[yoda]

00z NAM already deciding to get the parts of the LWX CWA soaked... i81corridor has 2-4 inches of rain already through 12z TUES... however, there is quite the sharp cutoff along and east of the BR

[CAPE]

lol 6z GFS.

[dailylurker]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

lol 6z GFS.

What does it have to say? 

[BristowWx]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

lol 6z GFS.

Yep, it’s saying batten down the hatches and build that ark

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

What does it have to say? 

Tracks the Atlantic low straight up the coast.

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Thinking tomorrow is a good day to set down more grass seed and patch the lawn a bit more before we get a week of wet weather.

Not the best time of the year to plant grass seed, but good luck.

And you know this will not be a week of wet weather. Probably the best chance of significant rain (some place in the region) is Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond that it will probably be mostly cloudy and cool, with some showers around, if that upper low meanders for a few days.

[dailylurker]

27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Tracks the Atlantic low straight up the coast.

Oh wow. I see that. Looks like a possible soaker on the way. The grass and garden will be happy.

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Oh wow. I see that. Looks like a possible soaker on the way. The grass and garden will be happy.

Still plenty of uncertainty with the low interactions and the big upper ridge to the north.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You can also add in that spring is not a good time to plant grass other than maybe to help fill bare spots. Sure if you get a wet summer it can work but under normal summer conditions that new grass has to be pampered if it’s gonna survive until fall. Getting grass to germinate in spring is super easy. Keeping it alive through the summer isn’t so easy.

That's all we're doing patch management. 

[Baltimorewx]

Canadian is probably best case scenario if you don’t want a lot of rain. A lot more progressive and moves things out fast 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

 

The Gefs has a few members track the Atlantic low up into the bay lol. Eps is worlds apart from this  . 6z  Euro still has the Atlantic low escape and tracks the ull way sw of us and has basically dry conditions here through 90 

NAM has been looking that way too. Subsidence FTL (or win) depending on your perspective.

Here is an indication of which way I have been leaning with expectations- I watered my grass last evening/this morning. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’m for the solutions that produce the least prolonged period of rain. I’m in favor of a one day rain, 3/4 - 1” of rain, repeat about every 7-10 days. All other days sunny, 75 degrees. LOL 

[Baltimorewx]

NAM doesn’t really have any rain for up here thru the end of the run. Kinda thinking the doom and gloom forecasts for next week will be wrong for most of us, sure some unlucky folks will get caught under something and probably be miserable for a couple days but I’m thinking generally just dreary days up here and not all that much in the rain bucket 

[CAPE]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

NAM doesn’t really have any rain for up here thru the end of the run. Kinda thinking the doom and gloom forecasts for next week will be wrong for most of us, sure some unlucky folks will get caught under something and probably be miserable for a couple days but I’m thinking generally just dreary days up here and not all that much in the rain bucket 

This has been my thinking. The UL will do most of the "damage", and it will be an area of heavy rain mainly west of the metros. Most of the good rains end by Tuesday evening. Then as the low weakens and meanders, keeps things mostly cloudy and cool-ish with scattered showers mid to late week. The subtropical low has little impact, other than producing sinking air for eastern areas until it gets shunted further east.

[Vice-Regent]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This has been my thinking. The UL will do most of the "damage", and it will be an area of heavy rain mainly west of the metros. Most of the good rains end by Tuesday evening. Then as the low weakens and meanders, keeps things mostly cloudy and cool-ish with scattered showers mid to late week. The subtropical low has little impact, other than producing sinking air for eastern areas until it gets shunted further east.

No reason to believe one solution over the other. Usually these tropical systems get slingshotted around the ULL in the tropics.

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, Vice-Regent said:

The New Normal