yoda Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps mostly agrees with the operational. Keeps rain chances around through next Friday. Eps mean high temps for Tues and Wed are in the 50s @nj2va approves of those temps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Along and West of 81 substantial rain 3-6" 2-4" east Hmmm, not as wet as I thought. The good thing is that long range QPF from NWP is terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Also ...any meso banding could bump things up locally as u know True, but it's going to be spread out over several days, and with the reduced continental aircraft data we've been busting high on QPF forecasting by over 50% since March. As of now, it doesn't appear to be a widespread issue unless things change quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, yoda said: @nj2va approves of those temps The thought of cloudy, damp, and low 50s the week before Memorial Day is just a cruel, sick joke. I’d take 90 over that crap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Also... decent pwats and orographic lift with the possible persistent wind direction you'd think would be a factor along the eastern facing slopes of the apps and foot hills . Yea, this setup favor the I-81 corridor more than anyone else. Us low landers are probably going to just get some wet weather. At least my young grass will win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 These convoluted setups always look "impressive" on guidance at this time frame. A subtropical low and at least 2 other disturbances interacting in some way, in an overall larger scale trough. Probably will be some showers here and there from Sunday through Wed, but nothing even close to a washout for any particular period. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely true sometimes . Verbatim Euro gets impressive rains with just combining 2 shortwaves ...not really interacting directly with the Atlantic energy verbatim. The Atlantic low looks to escape eastward, but it could inhibit lift on the western side. One possible reason guidance may have the best rains further inland currently, in addition to the 2 shortwaves potentially congealing to the west/sw of our region in the mountains. For now it's something interesting to monitor. If I had to make a call now, I would say the best chance for heavier rain would be in the mountains w/sw of here, with some showery periods further to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Now with that added context it makes more sense! LOL. Can’t believe anyone needed that one explained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 GFS doesnt look awful thru monday. Temps are good and precip mostly held in check. Showers saturday?? Monday night thru friday looks like a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: The Atlantic low looks to escape eastward, but it could inhibit lift on the western side. One possible reason guidance may have the best rains further inland currently, in addition to the 2 shortwaves potentially congealing to the west/sw of our region in the mountains. For now it's something interesting to monitor. If I had to make a call now, I would say the best chance for heavier rain would be in the mountains w/sw of here, with some showery periods further to the east. The Spring Sandy is coming. I cannot see this getting further east than 65W. The synoptics simply don't support it. We will be in for an extended period of multiple interactions with the cutoff low which is making this May a very special one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: $5 says i81 corridor gets Nam'd by Sunday with 6-10" 18z ICON is probably heading that way. 4-7" in the i81 corridor by 18z tue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Icon looks like a beat down again. What an ugly week setting up after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: Icon looks like a beat down again. What an ugly week setting up after Sunday. 00z CMC is 3-6" of rain area-wide pretty much through 00z SAT... 00z GFS looks similar, but has 2-4 along i95 and 3-6 isolated 8 out towards i81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 6Z GFS basically a 2" max rainfall for 95. Certainly not an end of the world scenario. And it never gets cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 This reminds me of winter when we're supposed to get a week of cold and snow chances. Then it ends up one cold day followed by 45 and rain for a week. Back to the 7 month November next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Last week we were in the 40s and 50s with 850 temps down to -8C or so. This upcoming week we’ll be in the 40s and 50s with 850s of +8 or higher. Multiple ways to lose around here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Enjoy mid June today. Tomorrow should be ok for the most part, but there will be a chance of some scattered showers. Still around 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Very foggy out there this morning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 44 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Last week we were in the 40s and 50s with 850 temps down to -8C or so. This upcoming week we’ll be in the 40s and 50s with 850s of +8 or higher. Multiple ways to lose around here. well said! At least last week, we watched places further north being even more cold and miserable (with some snow!), but next week, we'll watch it be 80 by Hudson's Bay and 75 in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Ok so saw it was 64 out and opened up the whole house. Came up from the downstairs and it feels like a sauna in here! 64/65/63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Wow - already up to 76 here with 68dp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Sheesh, euro op also 4-5” through next weekend for I95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro control just through Wed night . Baltimore lollie of 5" . That is pretty impressive for an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 This summer is looking like a hot/humid one with above average rainfall. Maybe not as hot but plenty of 90F days in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 85/65 I'll take a replay of the previous few days, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Someone start a rainfall contest. It would be something to do... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro has rain through Saturday am 3-6" Ninjd It never really develops the sub tropical low . Not much of a vort signature or surface reflection. The ull is a beast though . 20-35 winds and rain or showers for 4/5 days I think it probably works out better(for a more widespread rain event) if the subtropical low gets out of the way. A phase seems like a low probability, but if it hangs closer to the coast near our latitude there may be an area of subsidence on the northern/western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Loving today. About to finish working for the day to head outside to enjoy this weather. Next week looks like a shitshow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 I fall into this trap every year, open the pool early, surely this will be the year 90s return in may.... Enjoying my one pool day in May. Maybe I get another tomorrow...Then lights out for a while...temp 84, cocktail is cold and alcoholic.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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