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May Discobs 2020


George BM
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Reached 32°F at RIC this morning, this is the 2nd latest freeze on record. The latest occurred only a day later, on 5/11 back in 1966. The all time May low record is 31°F set on 5/9/1956. This is the first time RIC reached freezing in the month of May since 1986.

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3 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

But hey we can still track 90+ heat with 75 dewpoints. 

 

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Indeed.  We will over perform on that. BECH...Biblical East Coast Heatwave.  

 

2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Of course we go right into summer from the 5 months of March we just had. @BristowWx I'm saving that term lol. I love it. BECH all the way from May 15 to October 15 game on

Let us be near the northern/northeastern periphery of the biblical heat and humidity with a 750-400mb WNW flow of at least 50-60+kts, MLCAPE of at least 5,000 J/kg, DCAPE AOA 1500 J/kg, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Then come August through October let us be near the west-end of a monster Bermuda High with an Ohio Valley trough stuck to our west so some fun spinny cloud masses will train up the eastern seaboard.

Then it will REALLY be "Game On". 

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3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The weather markedly different here, I can tell you that.

I'm still at a out 50% leafage here.  Winchester has looked like summer weeks ago.  Kinda weird.  I'm only about 250 ft higher but it's just quite different.

Rains a lot more out here.  But its windy AF.

Same here, valley floors leafed out and look springish, the ridge tops still bare. Transition zone is 2000-3500, above there nada. 24 degrees should have put a dent in anything out, to say the least lol!

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Both GFS and Canadian agree on 80s for most of us Friday Saturday and Sunday and in some cases near 90

Even tho we almost always over perform on heat, I will take the under for now. 78-82 looks reasonable, with maybe a day of mid 80s. 

This excludes DCA ofc, which may very well be 90+ for the entire period.

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So happy I’m looking at this forecast vs what we’ve been dealing with.  Say goodbye to the perpetual March finally! 

Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

BWI missed the record by 1F this morning. Seems in general this morning was a bit warmer than progged throughout the northeast.

I think on saturday BWI  set the new record in the early morning and tied  that  record before midnight. That’s special 

i think that cements this as going into my weather diary started in 1965. They were 9 shots at a record fri   night thru sat  night and two were set and two were tied(one tied twice)

 

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LWX may want to fix this part of the forecast...

Tuesday
Widespread frost after 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday Night
Widespread frost before 9pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
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JUST missed a record low again this morning, 30.7 degrees was low past 24 hours, record is 30 degrees from 1983. Socked in the clouds and 43.7 degrees this am, may not get a lot warmer going by the forecast. We did hit 65 yesterday afternoon, but the 15-25 mph winds made it not an enjoyable time. 

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Thursday night will become a far cry from the next three nights including Thursday morning. The wind flow becomes southerly on Thursday, bringing more humid conditions with temps close to 70 that day... then we summer on Friday, with temps surpassing 80F. Should be a stellar weekend minus showers on Sunday but with temps in the mid 70s and a coming ridge advertised on the models might reverse the cooler water anomalies off the East Coast. Waters are running pretty cold off the New England and upper mid-atl coast due to the record cold we've just had. Interesting thing to note, it feels like this is the ridge that increases the tendency for more ridging to develop, bringing sustained warmth due to the water temp anomalies warming.

We may have the risk for backdoor cold fronts though, as this seems to happen every spring now and in May. The trough up north may stay far enough away that BDCFs may only reach as far south as NYC.. 500 mb height anomaly maps aren't everything. We don't live at the 500 mbar level. Ridges don't always mean warmth, especially if there's a trough to the northeast which would serve to bring cooler conditions under the ridge to a certain point. I think it all boils down to the placement of the trough over Canada. On the GEFS there does seem to be lingering trough issues, particularly during the period between Monday and Wednesday where there is a brief relaxation in the ridge over the U.S allowing for cooler air to draw in from New England for a brief time before another ridge pulse sends it back north and we torch.. there may also be the risk for some thunderstorms during the times when the flow becomes NWerly.

Still plentiful blocking over the arctic in the AO regions, however not much in terms of -NAO... in fact, looks more +NAO till later in the run where ridging develops again over the Baffin Bay region. -NAO may actually help with bringing warmer than normal temperatures later in May as a -NAO doesn't affect us as greatly as it does in the early spring. I think how hot we get will depend on the placement of the trough in the W US over the coming days, which will also affect our risk for the all-hated BDCF.

All things said I think we're in for a warm to hot period for weather across the eastern U.S for at least the next 2-3 weeks or so, minus the BDCF risk. With cool-neutral to weak La Nina conditions developing over the summer and as I type this (IIRC La Nina brings hot summers to the E US). 

Today is a pretty windy day again. Only the 59493th time so far and it looks to be 59494th counting today.

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro tries to backdoor northern areas this weekend.  I'll take 70 vs 80s .Friday verbatim the warmest here . VA can keep the 85-90 stuff.:D

Lookin closer...some of the reason for lower temps is being  rain cooled . Euro keeps the frontal boundary draped overhead it appears for a couple days. 

Always bank on the backdoor front getting further SW than modeled.

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I CRUSHED a new 'cool max' for the date, 46.6 is all I made it to yesterday for a high. Temp actually started falling a little after noon to the upper 30's and has stayed there since. Previous record for the date was 54 degrees in 1989, that is over 7 degrees!!! Currently 39.6/31.4 with a light W wind at 3 and cloudy skies. That helped keep the temp up overnight.

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