May Discobs 2020

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, frd said:

Are you salivating about the potential of robust blocking in 20-21 winter? Delayed effect and timed also with the favorable QBO .  Need an @Isotherm  grain of salt to ponder on over the hot summer months.   

 

 

 

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

HL blocking is extinct in winter until proven otherwise.

Tbh, I can't salivate about anything after the last three winters...it's like crap has been broken up there in the atmosphere for winter, lol BUT...when looking back at all our winters surrounding a solar minimum on record, we never had a complete dud. In fact, all but 2 solar minimums produced a winter with above average snow. 

So I looked at two consecutive winters that fell either during or after the minimums (due to the suspected "lag effect" that's been discussed here)

The lowest total was the 40s at 18"...which isn't a dud but exactly our average. Now I don't know how to make a chart showing all this...but I can post a list of the winters sometime soon (too lazy to do it right now, lol)

But you'd think...that if we saw zero solar minimum effect last year...we'd have to see some kind of effect this year, right? (What are the odds we see no effect in the atmosphere?)

[nj2va]

What a fan-fcking-tastic evening.  Just took a 2 mile walk through the neighborhood and now enjoying a glass of rose (#basic) on the patio.  Today’s weather/this evening has been great for my mental health.  I wasn’t sure if I could deal with more chill/clouds (even if we have to go through it again next week).

[Chris78]

What a beautiful day. 10 out of 10.

I hope the 18z  gfs is wrong for next week. Has the pesky cut off low hanging out till Friday. With several inches of rain.

[Maestrobjwa]

So here are a list of solar minimums--counted here as the start of a new solar cycle--and the two consecutive winters that followed each one. I used approximate months for the start of new solar cycles that I found on wiki (yeah I know, lol That's why I just put the season, as opposed to the individual months--except for the winter months).

Solar Minimum: January 1902
1902-1903: 19.8"
1903-1904: 25.9"

SM: Summer 1913
1913-14: 23.0"
1914-15: 16.0"

SM: Summer 1923
1923-24: 33.6"
1924-25: 19.2"

SM: Fall 1933
1933-34: 47.9"
1934-35: 29.2"

SM: Winter 1944
1944-45: 17.3"
1945-46: 26.1"

SM: Spring 1954
1954-55: 10.1"
1955-56: 19.1:

SM: Fall 1964
1964-65: 18.6"
1965-66: 32.8"

SM: Late Winter 1976
1976-77: 11.1"
1977-78: 34.3"

SM: Fall 1986
1986-87: 35.2"
1987-88: 20.4"

SM: Summer 1996
1996-97: 15.3"
1997-98: 3.2"

*****Now this was a bit of an anomaly...of course we all know what happened BEFORE this minimum, lol

SM: Dec 2008
2008-09: 9.1"
2009-10 77.0"

So I'll let the experienced minds weigh in here...but there seems to be a trend of either one winter or the other seeing average or above average snow. I don't know what that would mean for this year. Do we know where we are with our solar status? Did we hit the minimum sometime last year, or this year? I've read that nailing down the cycles precisely can be a challenge. But nevertheless...this is what I observed just by looking at the record.

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So here are a list of solar minimums--counted here as the start of a new solar cycle--and the two consecutive winters that followed each one. I used approximate months for the start of new solar cycles that I found on wiki (yeah I know, lol That's why I just put the season, as opposed to the individual months--except for the winter months).

Solar Minimum: January 1902
1902-1903: 19.8"
1903-1904: 25.9"

SM: Summer 1913
1913-14: 23.0"
1914-15: 16.0"

SM: Summer 1923
1923-24: 33.6"
1924-25: 19.2"

SM: Fall 1933
1933-34: 47.9"
1934-35: 29.2"

SM: Winter 1944
1944-45: 17.3"
1945-46: 26.1"

SM: Spring 1954
1954-55: 10.1"
1955-56: 19.1:

SM: Fall 1964
1964-65: 18.6"
1965-66: 32.8"

SM: Late Winter 1976
1976-77: 11.1"
1977-78: 34.3"

SM: Fall 1986
1986-87: 35.2"
1987-88: 20.4"

SM: Summer 1996
1996-97: 15.3"
1997-98: 3.2"

*****Now this was a bit of an anomaly...of course we all know what happened BEFORE this minimum, lol

SM: Dec 2008
2008-09: 9.1"
2009-10 77.0"

So I'll let the experienced minds weigh in here...but there seems to be a trend of either one winter or the other seeing average or above average snow. I don't know what that would mean for this year. Do we know where we are with our solar status? Did we hit the minimum sometime last year, or this year? I've read that nailing down the cycles precisely can be a challenge. But nevertheless...this is what I observed just by looking at the record.

Personally I don’t think that data supports any conclusions.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Personally I don’t think that data supports any conclusions.

Maybe maybe not....I just thought by the numbers there seemed to be an either or pattern. Sometimes in those next two winters was always either average or above average. Don't know why or if it's just a statistical blip...but there does seem to be repeated with the exception of 1996 (where it happened just before)

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maybe maybe not....I just thought by the numbers there seemed to be an either or pattern. Sometimes in those next two winters was always either average or above average. Don't know why or if it's just a statistical blip...but there does seem to be repeated with the exception of 1996 (where it happened just before)

But if you can find other two year periods where the same occurred outside of the years you chose, then that would make the conclusion invalid.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But if you can find other two year periods where the same occurred outside of the years you chose, then that would make the conclusion invalid.

But why would that invalidate it?...Are there not enough repetitions with the same variable (the solar minimum) present? Sure, any two year period could repeat a pattern, but it wouldn't be with any consistency. Whereas here...there seems to be at least a degree of consistency when one variable (the minimum) is present.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But why would that invalidate it?...Are there not enough repetitions with the same variable (the solar minimum) present? Sure, any two year period could repeat a pattern, but it wouldn't be with any consistency. Whereas here...there seems to be at least a degree of consistency when one variable (the minimum) is present.

Maybe do the solar max years?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Maybe do the solar max years?

Now that's an idea...may look at that tomorrow!

[Weather Will]

WB 0z EURO.  This is not the tropical feature directly but next week is looking increasingly stormy and wet.  Enjoy the next few days.  Storm picture Wed.  Precip map 10 day total.

[JakkelWx]

crapola outdoor activity pattern from monday through thursday... at least it isn't for multiple weeks. seems like some people on wxtwitter are overreacting. then again what's new?

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now that's an idea...may look at that tomorrow!

My understanding of solar min/max and the correlation to NAO is that it shifts. I read a paper back in winter and IIRC in the last 50 years or so a -NAO is correlated with higher solar activity. Of course you also have to look at other factors, specifically ENSO state, as it also influences the the NAM/NAO phases. There are a lot of complex interactions so this stuff ends up being pretty speculative, and who knows to what degree any established relationships are influenced by a changing climate.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still some uncertainty as would be expected 5-6 days out . Latest Gefs (6z ) actually looks more progressive.  Lower heights to the northeast keeps our energy in the mid Atlantic from digging in like a tick and cutting off all week . Something to watch. Either way it looks wet for at least a couple days. 

 

I could use some rain in my yard. With all the trees now active, higher sun, and plenty of wind lately, my soil has gotten a tad dry. Grass can start to struggle pretty quickly here heading into summer. Hate to have to start watering already.

[nw baltimore wx]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I could use some rain in my yard. With all the trees now active, higher sun, and plenty of wind lately, my soil has gotten a tad dry. Grass can start to struggle pretty quickly here heading into summer. Hate to have to start watering already.

I’m getting my veggies in this weekend so although I’m looking forward to more weather like the last couple of days, the forecast is looking good for the garden.

[Vice-Regent]

If anything solar minimums lead to diminishing returns in the AGGI climate due to greater quasi resonance patterns (rosby waves). The PV gets stuck in the mid-latitude troposphere and breaks apart.

The cold May is bad news for winter if you like snow and cold. There is probably a correlation if you look for it.

[North Balti Zen]

Who invited Mr. and Mrs. Clouds and their friends?

[WinterWxLuvr]

The average temperature in Winchester for the month of May has been 14.6 degrees warmer than the average was in January 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The average temperature in Winchester for the month of May has been 14.6 degrees warmer than the average was in January 

Spring is warmer than winter, who knew.

[North Balti Zen]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Spring is warmer than winter, who knew.

Good one.

There is usually about a 30 degree difference in average highs between January and May. Average high in Balt is 44 in January and about 75 in May. So I will go ahead and note that Luvr's stat is rather amazing, there only being a 14 degree difference so far in Winchester in average high as between Jan and May...

[WinterWxLuvr]

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Spring is warmer than winter, who knew.

10 out of 10 dude. Well crafted

[Eskimo Joe]

55 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Good one.

There is usually about a 30 degree difference in average highs between January and May. Average high in Balt is 44 in January and about 75 in May. So I will go ahead and note that Luvr's stat is rather amazing, there only being a 14 degree difference so far in Winchester in average high as between Jan and May...

Now with that added context it makes more sense!

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs showing another  possible outcome for next  week. This run it has the ull much further sw keeping our area basically dry through Thursday.  See what Euro says .

Yeah the models are having a tough time trying to figure out the placement of the ULL which probably won't begin to get resolved for a couple of days yet. At least in my area the 12z GFS/CMC (and GEFS) have all backed off on the heavier rainfall amounts for next week. So still alot of uncertainty. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs showing another  possible outcome for next  week. This run it has the ull much further sw keeping our area basically dry through Thursday.  See what Euro says .

Canadian disagrees...rain from Tuesday through the following saturday

[poolz1]

Euro going the way of the Canadian....miserable weather unless we have a heavy rainer to contend with.  Waiting for EJ to be tentatively excited about a flooding risk..

Easterly flow with a frontal boundary and a slight trop connection/capture....then a cutoff.  Def interesting.. 

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Euro going the way of the Canadian....miserable weather unless we have a heavy rainer to contend with.  Waiting for EJ to be tentatively excited about a flooding risk..

Easterly flow with a frontal boundary and a slight trop connection/capture....then a cutoff.  Def interesting.. 

That sounds miserable.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Can't see exact numbers but the Euro looks wet.

[yoda]

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That sounds miserable.  

No warm weather for you!

[yoda]

21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Along and West of 81 substantial rain

3-6" 

2-4" east 

Lovely... sounds great 

[North Balti Zen]

Brutal.