NNE Warm Season Thread 2020

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I wouldn’t make an investment in that area expecting the Balsams planned ski area to go anywhere.  That’s been like two decades of talks it seems like.  The market just isn’t there for that place IMO.

Ya it’s the 7’th year with good ole Les as director of expansion. He is a four letter word in some parts from prior activities.

The Balsams  expansion website acts like they are ready lol just have to approve that 28 Million bond .

[PhineasC]

Now THIS is the weather I envisioned when I bought this place. Glorious!

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I wouldn’t make an investment in that area expecting the Balsams planned ski area to go anywhere.  That’s been like two decades of talks it seems like.  The market just isn’t there for that place IMO.

I agree with @tamarack about Saddleback’s snow quality as likely the best in Maine due to the upslope component, and the reported annual snowfall averages from the state’s largest resorts would argue for that with Sunday River at ~155”, Sugarloaf at ~200”, and Saddleback at ~225”.

On that same note, I seriously think that the Dixville Notch/Balsams area would get that prize in New Hampshire.  It’s likely that Mt. Washington itself has greater raw snow/liquid equivalent numbers up above 4,000’, but the beating and wind scouring that the snow gets up in those alpine elevations is so extreme that the quality often takes a hit.  And of course, skiing up in that alpine terrain with the combination of winds, temperatures, and deadly terrain hazards is really not an option for most people.  Wildcat and Bretton Woods, which are literally right there in the Mt. Washington area both report ~200” a season, and Balsams seems to report ~250”.  It’s really hard to get reports from people skiing that area (I think visitation was always sparse even back when Balsams was operating), but it’s got great latitude and potential for upslope, and it really feels like the snow quality should be way up there.  I think elevations top out around 3,500’ there, so that’s a touch lower than the peaks of some of the resorts, but it feels like it would come in just a tier behind the Northern Greens (maybe akin to the Central Greens) for snow amounts/snow quality.

With the terrain there, I bet the ski touring is really nice in spots where tree spacing is sufficient.  If the ski footage they used in their promo video is actually from the Balsams, it certainly shows promise.  You can see that one shot at 1:07 where you’ve got that upslope-style snow stuck to every deciduous branch.  You typically need upslope/backside snow, and protection from the wind to get snow deposition like that.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya , if I got land it wouldn’t be in some mediocre spot relative to Snowfall . Rangeley seems like it would have the most seasons for rental potential (Busy summer lake ) / Winter (Ski) early / mid fall (foliage ) thou Covid has thrown a large wrench into that market , should be some distressed second home sales this winter in my opinion and likely a lot more if travel /lodging restrictions are re imposed .

There are a few plots near Dixville / E Colebrook that would  see nice appreciation if that proposed ski resort ever got the funding to get off the ground near the Balsams. 

I can't speak for Western ME, but the real estate market is on fire here, maybe that changes come winter, but wealthy NJ/NYers etc. are gobbling up homes here. Maybe some are trying to unload their second homes, but there seems to be more than enough buyers to purchase them too. My wife's company had two familes  from N NJ close this week on houses and already have their kids enrolled in the private elementary school here. Maybe more inventory pops up this winter if travel bans go into effect like you mentioned.  In the 5 years I've been here the market has been turtle like slow, lots of stuff sitting forever and you could make real low ball offers, doesn't seem to be the case anymore.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I can't speak for Western ME, but the real estate market is on fire here, maybe that changes come winter, but wealthy NJ/NYers etc. are gobbling up homes here. Maybe some are trying to unload their second homes, but there seems to be more than enough buyers to purchase them too. My wife's company had two familes  from N NJ close this week on houses and already have their kids enrolled in the private elementary school here. Maybe more inventory pops up this winter if travel bans go into effect like you mentioned.  In the 5 years I've been here the market has been turtle like slow, lots of stuff sitting forever and you could make real low ball offers, doesn't seem to be the case anymore.

Some NYC / Manhattan NNJ wealthy folks are voting with their feet , and that is a real trend .

Nannies/ Live in tutors/ teachers  are in Super high demand for the very wealthy w Covid 

So much uncertainty with how this Covid plays out regarding restrictions as school tried to go hybrid as many fight the Covid fatigueugh

Mountain homes are in high demand even as a investment ..away from the uncertainties of protecting upscale private property in urban areas now  is a legit worry , look at Manhattan the expensive stores that have windows are ALL literally boarded up , this is not even hyperbole lol. 

If we have winter lockdowns folks with big cash can swoop in and steal nice mountain homes 

[dendrite]

63.2/56 off of a high of 71.9F. Not a drop today.

[PhineasC]

4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some NYC / Manhattan NNJ wealthy folks are voting with their feet , and that is a real trend .

Nannies/ Live in tutors/ teachers  are in Super high demand for the very wealthy w Covid 

So much uncertainty with how this Covid plays out regarding restrictions as school tried to go hybrid as many fight the Covid fatigueugh

Mountain homes are in high demand even as a investment ..away from the uncertainties of protecting upscale private property in urban areas now  is a legit worry , look at Manhattan the expensive stores that have windows are ALL literally boarded up , this is not even hyperbole lol. 

If we have winter lockdowns folks with big cash can swoop in and steal nice mountain homes 

I swooped in and stole a mountain home, so yeah it is a real thing.

[CoastalWx]

I'll probably be up north a lot more this winter, as my folks finally got wifi at their place. Will be nice to escape what should be hell on Earth and at least get a change of scenery while schooling/working.

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is a 7 acre plot for 45k across street from Long pond about 3 miles from Rangeley  lake . Elevated up so there could be a fine view .

 

DeLorme has Long Pond (aka Beaver Mountain Pond) at 1,729' so that lot might be 1800+.  View looking south across the pond includes Public Lands' Four Ponds Unit, the lot is handy to Rangeley, 3 miles or so from the AT crossing of Route 4, maybe 5 from Smalls Falls and if it's readily buildable that seems a good price.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, tamarack said:

DeLorme has Long Pond (aka Beaver Mountain Pond) at 1,729' so that lot might be 1800+.  View looking south across the pond includes Public Lands' Four Ponds Unit, the lot is handy to Rangeley, 3 miles or so from the AT crossing of Route 4, maybe 5 from Smalls Falls and if it's readily buildable that seems a good price.

It’s definitely a sloped parcel , that’s the one . I probably won’t do anything for 3 months ,so it may be gone ...but there should be good potential w the ability for a view and proximity to skiing and water in seasons .

[Angus]

Whenever I drive into Rangeley in the winter and maybe even the summer you get glimpses of the pond. There are a couple of homes on it that can be seen from the road and I always think that's a nice spot. The best thing is the road has been improved - it was bad until the improvements a decade plus ago. That is a long drive so you need to be committed if you are doing weekends or coming from out of state. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll probably be up north a lot more this winter, as my folks finally got wifi at their place. Will be nice to escape what should be hell on Earth and at least get a change of scenery while schooling/working.

Not too excited for La Nina?

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, Angus said:

Whenever I drive into Rangeley in the winter and maybe even the summer you get glimpses of the pond. There are a couple of homes on it that can be seen from the road and I always think that's a nice spot. The best thing is the road has been improved - it was bad until the improvements a decade plus ago. That is a long drive so you need to be committed if you are doing weekends or coming from out of state. 

The improvement uphill from Smalls Falls blew a wide hole thru the 400-acre tract on Twp E that our agency manages.  It also eliminated the steep and curvy stretch that had many many crashes.  On balance, a clear win. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Not too excited for La Nina?

Is there a La Niña snowfall climo map for NNE

is it neutral for upslope ?

Maybe mount Rainier sees 1100” 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Not too excited for La Nina?

Oh I meant more from COVID and dealing with 2 ppl working while trying to school...etc. It's not going to be easy. 

[J.Spin]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is there a La Niña snowfall climo map for NNE

is it neutral for upslope ?

Maybe mount Rainier sees 1100” 

In my experience in this area, upslope snow can be tough to quantify specifically because of the way storm cycles often simply transition from the more synoptic snows into “upslope” snow without an obvious demarcation.  To try to give a sense for the relative amount of upslope from one season to the next, we usually just have to go by some subjective level of “feel” based on our experiences over the course of the season.  PF is pretty good on that though with the way he is out on the mountain almost every day during the winter.

In general, I feel as though I’ve liked La Niña seasons up here – some mixing in systems, but we’ve often had lots of moisture passing through the area.

I can look at my data to get some numbers though – which seasons are we considering to be La Niña (and does weak/moderate/strong matter)?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is there a La Niña snowfall climo map for NNE

is it neutral for upslope ?

Maybe mount Rainier sees 1100” 

All I know is the 2010-11 Nina was huge for upslope.  2007-08 was just a big snow year in general but I generally have an overall positive outlook on Ninas... seem less prone to suppression depression too, even if they are SWFE mixed bags.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

All I know is the 2010-11 Nina was huge for upslope.  2007-08 was just a big snow year in general but I generally have an overall positive outlook on Ninas... seem less prone to suppression depression too, even if they are SWFE mixed bags.

Yeah, I assume I should root for big-time moisture since temps are more likely to work out in my backyard regardless of pattern.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, I assume I should root for big-time moisture since temps are more likely to work out in my backyard regardless of pattern.

Yup you want above normal moisture IMO.  If the moisture is there, eventually at this latitude and at elevation it’ll snow a bunch.  

[wx2fish]

The status of the Balsoms project doesn't seem very encouraging. I talked with someone who went inside the old hotel not too long ago and they said its in really bad shape. I'm not sure if renovating it was part of the plan or they were gonna tear it down.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

In my experience in this area, upslope snow can be tough to quantify specifically because of the way storm cycles often simply transition from the more synoptic snows into “upslope” snow without an obvious demarcation.  To try to give a sense for the relative amount of upslope from one season to the next, we usually just have to go by some subjective level of “feel” based on our experiences over the course of the season.  PF is pretty good on that though with the way he is out on the mountain almost every day during the winter.

In general, I feel as though I’ve liked La Niña seasons up here – some mixing in systems, but we’ve often had lots of moisture passing through the area.

I can look at my data to get some numbers though – which seasons are we considering to be La Niña (and does weak/moderate/strong matter)?

For here, strong ENSO in either direction is usually bad news.

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is there a La Niña snowfall climo map for NNE

is it neutral for upslope ?

 

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

All I know is the 2010-11 Nina was huge for upslope.  2007-08 was just a big snow year in general but I generally have an overall positive outlook on Ninas... seem less prone to suppression depression too, even if they are SWFE mixed bags.

Well just checking the layman’s listing of La Niña years, the ones during the period in which I’ve got snowfall records are shown as: 2007–08, 2008–09, 2010–12, 2016, and 2017–18.

I’m not sure how to incorporate the one listed as just 2016 (did it just happen during part of the year or the summer?  Which “winter” does it go with?), but for the rest of them, snowfall at our site was as follows:

2007-2008:  203.2”

2008-2009:  179.4”

2010-2011:  197.0”

2011-2012:  115.3”

2017-2018:  167.2”

There are some pretty heavy hitters in there, and only one below average season in the group.  The average snowfall for those winters is 172.4”, which is more than 10% above the overall snowfall average in my data set.

[powderfreak]

2011-12 stands out like a sore thumb lol.

[J.Spin]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

2011-12 stands out like a sore thumb lol.

Yeah, I always figured that season was likely to be near that bottom of what we’d typically see for seasonal snowfall around here… that was until the insanity of 2015-2016 happened.

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, I always figured that season was likely to be near that bottom of what we’d typically see for seasonal snowfall around here… that was until the insanity of 2015-2016 happened.

Ha I was right there with ya... like 240-ish upper mountain snowfall seems like the low barometer until a 156” or whatever it was dropped on us in 15-16.

*I should note that 11-12 was only 212” I think during operating season, which ended early on April 1st after a week of 70s/80s in March.  We did get that big elevation 24-30” upslope event after closure but before scheduled closure so I generally roll that into the total.

[#NoPoles]

last 3 nights have bottomed out at 45-46 degrees.

 

The Bretton Woods Real Estate market is def a sellers market. Average time on the market for a property is 2 days, if it even makes it to being publicly listed

[STILL N OF PIKE]

There is a nice plot in VT approx 2 miles ENE of Main lodge at approximately 1350’. 3 Westover Rd North Troy . Not awful . 

 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

last 3 nights have bottomed out at 45-46 degrees.

 

The Bretton Woods Real Estate market is def a sellers market. Average time on the market for a property is 2 days, if it even makes it to being publicly listed

Yeah, you definitely radiate better than me here in Randolph. Last 3 nights for me: 53/52/55

 

[PhineasC]

The temp here plummets after sundown but then seems to get "stuck" by around 10-12 PM and doesn't go much lower overnight. I have noticed this pattern all summer. We'll see if that changes in the winter. 

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, you definitely radiate better than me here in Randolph. Last 3 nights for me: 53/52/55

 

Almost exactly what my frost pocket site had - only difference was 56 yesterday morning, but we had a fair amount of clouds each night to limit radiating.