NNE Warm Season Thread 2020

[powderfreak]

Probably some tough driving on I-89 between BTV and Waterbury with 1.0-2.5” of rain estimated in short duration there.  

[J.Spin]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Probably some tough driving on I-89 between BTV and Waterbury with 1.0-2.5” of rain estimated in short duration there.  

The gauge collected ~1.40” here, so we’re in that sort of range.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

The gauge collected ~1.40” here, so we’re in that sort of range.

You’ve gotten hit with some big rainer storms this summer!  I do think there’s something with the Winooski Valley and convergence.  Storms and squalls like to split the gap.

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You’ve gotten hit with some big rainer storms this summer!  I do think there’s something with the Winooski Valley and convergence.  Storms and squalls like to split the gap.

There are those times when one wonders if it’s just the radar beam sneaking through the gap in the Greens and giving the impression of more precipitation.  But the ground truth on liquid and snowfall numbers year after year suggests that there really is some sort of convergence going on around here that consistently wrings out that extra moisture.

[backedgeapproaching]

All water holes nice and warm with the pretty much sustained sun and warmth..felt like mid 70s maybe..kids enjoyed a nice dip

 

[wxeyeNH]

Newfound Lake surface water temperature was 82.2F.   That is about the warmest I have ever seen it.

[eyewall]

3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

All water holes nice and warm with the pretty much sustained sun and warmth..felt like mid 70s maybe..kids enjoyed a nice dip

 

That looks amazing!

[Angus]

On 7/9/2020 at 7:05 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Newfound Lake surface water temperature was 82.2F.   That is about the warmest I have ever seen it.

I agree. Winnisquam right now is silly warm. Hiked Tripyramid yesterday from the Kancamagus and cars were parked all along the road with people in the Swift River.

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, Angus said:

I agree. Winnisquam right now is silly warm. Hiked Tripyramid yesterday from the Kancamagus and cars were parked all along the road with people in the Swift River.

Swimming spots are incredibly busy right now... it's nice to see folks getting outside and enjoying the heat in NNE. 

Hiking trails were as busy as I've ever seen them prior to the high dews the past few days.  Folks heading outdoors even more than normal this summer so far, in a place where folks go to get outside.  Thanks COVID.  Only the high dews deter them only to the swimming holes though. 

 

[backedgeapproaching]

Some house shakers rolling through..been a quite a while since I can even remember any thunder and lightning that wasnt 20 miles away.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

Damn, looks like a possible covid cluster here locally in Manchester.  5 positives in 1 day from a town of 4500 people seems pretty high. It's been zoo of out of staters the past month or so, which I guess was expected with stuff reopening. 

 

[J.Spin]

18 hours ago, powderfreak said:

70s today felt good and it’s weird when a dew of 64F seems refreshing.  

A/C off after a rare couple day stretch.

I guess it was a relatively short stretch of those higher dew points, but you’re so right about how funny it is that these low and even mid-60s F dew points feel amazing.  It’s so nice to be back to something at least resembling NNE summer weather – heading out for rides the past couple of days has been so much more comfortable.  Thankfully we haven’t had to turn on the A/C yet this summer like we did a couple of summers back, but we were starting to contemplate it for those final couple of days where it was getting tough to get the house below 70 F.  We should be passing peak climate temperatures around here in the next week though.

[powderfreak]

When the tropical weather breaks up... that was a textbook hazy, hot and humid stretch.

[dendrite]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

When the tropical weather breaks up... that was a textbook hazy, hot and humid stretch.

Mansfield Lea

[backedgeapproaching]

Last night was first time a long while it seems we got down into the 50s.

 Total COC today and perfect evening unfolding...

 

 

[J.Spin]

5 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Last night was first time a long while it seems we got down into the 50s.

 Total COC today and perfect evening unfolding...

Today was awesome, especially after that period of humidity.  It’s interesting to note that even in July, the average lows around here are still in the 50s F, and in order to get down to those temperatures, you typically need to have dew points down in that range, so our “average” weather should be COC weather.  Whenever we have those stretches where dew points and lows are well up into the 60s F, they have to somehow be balanced out by something to get those average lows in the 50s F, but those must be some chilly July nights.

[backedgeapproaching]

20 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Today was awesome, especially after that period of humidity.  It’s interesting to note that even in July, the average lows around here are still in the 50s F, and in order to get down to those temperatures, you typically need to have dew points down in that range, so our “average” weather should be COC weather.  Whenever we have those stretches where dew points and lows are well up into the 60s F, they have to somehow be balanced out by something to get those average lows in the 50s F, but those must be some chilly July nights.

Right, it's not like it was some super anomalous cool shot, just pretty much normal like you said. Felt good though compared to recent weeks. Even down here average low is about 59 right now, and my low was 58, so again pretty normal.

I remember a few years ago 4th of July was really chilly at night. I remember being outside with multiple layers and blankets later at night..must have been low-mid 40's I'm sure for low, like you said balancing out those lows in the 60s. 

[powderfreak]

What an evening.  Chamber of Commerce returned today. 

Air was finally cleared of the haze and visibility on our evening dog walk up Spruce Peak was the best in the past week it appeared.

71/57 down in the valley, it was a nice 63F at top of Spruce around 7pm.

 

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What an evening.  Chamber of Commerce returned today. 

Air was finally cleared of the haze and visibility on our evening dog walk up Spruce Peak was the best in the past week it appeared.

71/57 down in the valley right now, it was a nice 63F at top of Spruce around 7pm.

 

Summer nights like this are spectacular.  As much as I love winter, this is pretty damn nice too.

[powderfreak]

Just now, mreaves said:

Summer nights like this are spectacular.  As much as I love winter, this is pretty damn nice too.

Yeah, comfortable but still warm so you know it's summer.  Temperature dropped fast too with the sun.

71/57 to 63/58 in one hour.... you know it's a Chamber quality air mass when it drops 8F at sunset and with very little movement in the dew point.

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, mreaves said:

Summer nights like this are spectacular.  As much as I love winter, this is pretty damn nice too.

Very clear last evening, best summertime view of the Milky Way in a long time.  Walked well up into the nearby field and was able to see the comet, fairly dim (no magnification) but quite obvious and moreso than Halley's comet 34 years ago.  (I've read that '86 was Halley's poorest display in centuries.)

[J.Spin]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, comfortable but still warm so you know it's summer.  Temperature dropped fast too with the sun.

71/57 to 63/58 in one hour.... you know it's a Chamber quality air mass when it drops 8F at sunset and with very little movement in the dew point.

 

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Very clear last evening, best summertime view of the Milky Way in a long time.  Walked well up into the nearby field and was able to see the comet, fairly dim (no magnification) but quite obvious and moreso than Halley's comet 34 years ago.  (I've read that '86 was Halley's poorest display in centuries.)

The lower moisture air mass and relatively clear skies set things up for some fantastic celestial viewing last night – once it actually got dark enough.  Even though we’re a month past the solstice, the evening light seemed to take forever to dissipate – it was well past 10:00 P.M. before comet viewing really took off.  Once that light fades though, NEOWISE simply explodes out of the night sky and is blatantly obvious with the naked eye around here.  I’ve always been very impressed with how dark the skies are in our area, and I think it’s due to the fact that we’re way down in the Winooski Valley, and light from Burlington, and even Waterbury, is blocked by the surrounding mountains.  The mountains obviously make it tough to get views on the horizon, but NEOWISE is high enough in the sky that it’s not an issue.  A guy I spoke with last night said 10:30 P.M. is pretty optimal for viewing NEOWISE.

After chatting with a colleague at work yesterday who had been getting pictures earlier this week, I shot 4-second images at F/4, ISO 16,000, with a focal length of 80-100 mm on APS-C.  That focal length seems decent to catch a good sense of the tail and some surrounding stars.  I just took a few quick shots and didn’t have time to really nail any images at the level of focus I’d like to get, but I’m happy with that exposure level, so hopefully I can try later this week when the skies are supposed to clear up again.

Indeed as Tamarack noted, NEOWISE is much more impressive than what I saw of Halley’s in ’86 – I only remember seeing this faint wisp that was just visible through binoculars, and right along the horizon.  That was pretty underwhelming, but apparently that visit of the comet represented the least favorable viewing on record.  It’s funny that I don’t have a strong impression from Hale-Bopp back in ‘96, because it was apparently so bright that it was easily visible in large cities.

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

The lower moisture air mass and relatively clear skies set things up for some fantastic celestial viewing last night – once it actually got dark enough.  Even though we’re a month past the solstice, the evening light seemed to take forever to dissipate – it was well past 10:00 P.M. before comet viewing really took off.  Once that light fades though, NEOWISE simply explodes out of the night sky and is blatantly obvious with the naked eye around here.  I’ve always been very impressed with how dark the skies are in our area, and I think it’s due to the fact that we’re way down in the Winooski Valley, and light from Burlington, and even Waterbury, is blocked by the surrounding mountains.  The mountains obviously make it tough to get views on the horizon, but NEOWISE is high enough in the sky that it’s not an issue.  A guy I spoke with last night said 10:30 P.M. is pretty optimal for viewing NEOWISE.

It was about 10:15 by the time my eyes got accustomed to the dark, about the same sun-time here as 10:30 there.  Some afterglow, augmented by Farmington 6 miles away, on the western horizon even at that time.  Nice that the comet's tail points at the lowest star in the Big Dipper's current orientation.

[wxeyeNH]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

It was about 10:15 by the time my eyes got accustomed to the dark, about the same sun-time here as 10:30 there.  Some afterglow, augmented by Farmington 6 miles away, on the western horizon even at that time.  Nice that the comet's tail points at the lowest star in the Big Dipper's current orientation.

Still some light but with a few second time exposed the comet was visible above the house.  

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A nice soaking 0.58” this morning with some rolling thunder.  

66/66

We were similar here with 0.67” this morning after a bit of earlier rain during the overnight.  This latest round of rain pushed our site past 5” for the month, and past the July average here, so with some of the month left, maybe we’ll make up some ground from June being a bit low.

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

We were similar here with 0.67” this morning after a bit of earlier rain during the overnight.  This latest round of rain pushed our site past 5” for the month, and past the July average here, so with some of the month left, maybe we’ll make up some ground from June being a bit low.

For sure it’s turned decidedly more wet ever since that multi-day cut off low a few weeks ago.  Up on the mountain, a lot of the streams and creeks were pretty dry in June, just spring fed trickles.  Now all the drainages are flowing steadily on a regular basis.  It’s almost like we hit the summer dry flow really early this year, as normally that “dry up” seems to happen in July and August.  But the mountains seem to be adding 0.5-1.0” every 3-4 days it seems, because I know whatever water we get in town, Mansfield on average is going to top that by at least 50% or more.

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

For sure it’s turned decidedly more wet ever since that multi-day cut off low a few weeks ago.  Up on the mountain, a lot of the streams and creeks were pretty dry in June, just spring fed trickles.  Now all the drainages are flowing steadily on a regular basis.  It’s almost like we hit the summer dry flow really early this year, as normally that “dry up” seems to happen in July and August.  But the mountains seem to be adding 0.5-1.0” every 3-4 days it seems, because I know whatever water we get in town, Mansfield on average is going to top that by at least 50% or more.

Yes, the many little streams on my property all have water in them now. It was really dry for a while there. The vegetation is exploding again.

[J.Spin]

On 7/23/2020 at 3:28 PM, powderfreak said:

For sure it’s turned decidedly more wet ever since that multi-day cut off low a few weeks ago.  Up on the mountain, a lot of the streams and creeks were pretty dry in June, just spring fed trickles.  Now all the drainages are flowing steadily on a regular basis.  It’s almost like we hit the summer dry flow really early this year, as normally that “dry up” seems to happen in July and August.  But the mountains seem to be adding 0.5-1.0” every 3-4 days it seems, because I know whatever water we get in town, Mansfield on average is going to top that by at least 50% or more.

On the topic of our July rainfall around here, I tried out one of those cool plots I’ve been seeing in our subforum from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.  I plotted rainfall for here in VT up through yesterday, and I was somewhat encouraged by the result for this area.  Our site is in that region of black shading that covers this portion of the Northern Greens, and although that color is off scale, it would at least jive with the 5.10” of liquid we’ve had this month.

I was a bit less excited when I tried out some other plots though.  It has us shaded for something in the range of 1.20” – 2.00” for June rainfall, when we actually had 4.27” for the month.  I also tried out snowfall for this past season, and it put us in the 84” – 101” range, when I recorded >140” during the period.  It even has the Mt. Mansfield area in the next tier down for snowfall (67” – 84”) during that period so it’s clear that there are issues.

Exporting the input numbers gave me some insight into what might be part of the issue – there were only 22 stations used, and they look like co-op stations, so I’m guessing no CoCoRaHS data.  I’m not sure if there’s a way to include more station data, because that would obviously help improve the plots with the vast array of mountain microclimates we’ve got around here.  The BTV NWS plots of this sort seem to include those data, or certainly at least some of it, and bringing in  CoCoRaHS info offers the chance for 80+ additional VT stations that could really fine tune the plots to catch some of the microclimates.  It’s obviously a nice tool regardless, but if anybody knows how to infuse more data points, certainly pass that along.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The drier air is on it's way though.

Dews are plummeting to the west and it just hit BTV. 

SLK dew went from 67F this morning to 50F currently!

BTV dew just dropped 11 degrees in the past hour down to 60F. 

We don't get cold fronts anymore, just dew fronts.

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

What a dew front! 

BTV was a humid 72F Td at 11:15am... an hour later at 12:10pm it is 52F.  A 20-degree drop in the dew point in 55 minutes. 

That line of showers is the dew front... It's still 70F Td here and about to get soaked again... dews in the 50s are a few miles away.

We picked up 0.03” of liquid from that frontal passage, but dew points should be dropping substantially behind it.

These past couple of days probably made for the most humid stretch of the summer up to this point around here – there were definitely thoughts of going with A/C for these past couple of nights, but thankfully we were able to cool things down decently with fans.  July is our most (some would say only) summery month in this area, and it certainly did its job this year as it often does.  If it’s coming in with record numbers this year, it certainly felt as if it was on the top end humidity side for at least a couple of periods.

The forecast looks fine for the rest of the month though, and even beyond into August, and we’re getting well past the climatological peak of heat here (~July 17^th) so hopefully this most recent humidity episode will represent the peak in that arena.  We’re typically safe from a stretch like that here in the mountains once we get to August from what I’ve seen – we can definitely get some hot days, but they’re more like warm June days and typically can’t match the potency of July’s combination of heat and humidity.  The most extreme episodes we get from August onward on are typically shorter and seem to be due to events like a tropical storm really punching that type of air this far north. 

It’s crazy to look at our weather here now and think that heat indices in the 100 F range are still the topic of conversation in SNE.  We’re certainly on different sides of a front now.

[powderfreak]

You’re a soldier @J.Spin if you managed this latest stretch without AC!  

We’ve had ours on for 2 full days but I turned it off this morning with the dews dropping.  The other night when it was in the 80s at 1-2am before the storms pushed my limits for sleeping with windows open, ha.  I had to do AC.  We’ve got one of those in-wall units but it’s an older louder model.  

I will consider newer more efficient AC if these summers continue.  2018 and 2020 are going to be top 3 all-time I think at both BTV and Mansfield.  

Mansfield this year will be hottest June recorded and hottest July recorded... largely due to overnight mins which is mostly a function of humidity I think.

Feels glorious out now.  Dews of 50-55 right now feel like an autumn air mass, lol.