MJO812 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Far interior gets snow on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Far interior gets snow on the Euro. Less amped solutions could be right here which means someone's in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 A storm tracking northeastward off the North Carolina Coast will bring periods of rain and cool temperatures to the region tomorrow. Rainfall amounts are likely be be 0.25" or less except for southeastern New England where 0.50" to 1.00" with some locally higher amounts are possible. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below. The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows: Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019 Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019 Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010 Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992 Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978 Moderation may commence near mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -1.74 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.300. On May 4, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.050 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.393. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Less amped solutions could be right here which means someone's in for a surprise. Cold rain for us on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Under bright sunshine the temperature rose into the lower 60 this afternoon after a brisk morning with temperatures in the 40s. Two photos: Maybe they could add a few more languages to the signs. It could be that these pictured future world leaders aren’t familiar with the languages that are posted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Check out the 0z Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 AO and NAO are negative right now. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 51.5degs., or about 9.5degs. BN. Month to date is +2.5[61.1]. Should be about -4.9[55.2] by the 14th. The next 17 days on the GFS ENS are averaging an astonishing 50degs., or about 12degs. BN! This would leave us at about -9.0[52.4] by the 23rd. 14/20 members have a Trace of Snow on Sat. AM. 52* here at 6am. 54* by 9am. 53* at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: AO and NAO are negative right now. Unbelievable. 6z nam is 1-2 nnj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Euro has some the lowest May 850 mb temperatures on record for Saturday. So it looks like NYC has a good chance to dip below 40 for the first time in May since the 1970’s. NYC may not get out of the 40’s for a high on Saturday. There also could be some wet snowflakes mixed in during the morning. That would tie 1977 for the latest trace of snow on record in NYC. The NYC record low is 35 and low max 44. Record Lowest Max Temperature M 69 94 in 1979 44 in 1977 Min Temperature M 52 74 in 2000 35 in 1947 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Amazing how much leaf out happened within the last several days. Lot of lush green trees and vegetation. Our Dogwoods also came out, which is average for them anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Amazing how much leaf out happened within the last several days. Lot of lush green trees and vegetation. Our Dogwoods also came out, which is average for them anyway. same here-a few warm days will do the trick.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 i love gloomy chilly weather i wish everyday was like this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 How do we save allsnow’s impatiens this weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i love gloomy chilly weather i wish everyday was like this I love this weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: How do we save allsnow’s impatiens this weekend? do you get below freezing? I'm on the CT coast so looks like 35-36 here which is probably ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 43 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i love gloomy chilly weather i wish everyday was like this move to London or Eureka CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: do you get below freezing? I'm on the CT coast so looks like 35-36 here which is probably ok. 35-36 wouldn't be a freeze obviously, but we know that it's common for frost to form when temps get down to the mid 30s. So sensitive plants could be in trouble this weekend. Really glad I decided to not plant warm weather vegetables like tomatoes yet. I usually do in the first few days of May, but this year I held off due to this cold blast. Mid next week will be a good time to plant since we'll be starting a warmer pattern then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: do you get below freezing? I'm on the CT coast so looks like 35-36 here which is probably ok. Luckily it's late enough that even an anomalously cold airmass still isn't cold enough to get temps down to freezing. In fact freezing temps would challenge all time May lows. Still 35/36 is nothing to scoff at and a few models like the NAM suggest even colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 35-36 wouldn't be a freeze obviously, but we know that it's common for frost to form when temps get down to the mid 30s. So sensitive plants could be in trouble this weekend. Really glad I decided to not plant warm weather vegetables like tomatoes yet. I usually do in the first few days of May, but this year I held off due to this cold blast. Mid next week will be a good time to plant since we'll be starting a warmer pattern then. 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Luckily it's late enough that even an anomalously cold airmass still isn't cold enough to get temps down to freezing. In fact freezing temps would challenge all time May lows. Still 35/36 is nothing to scoff at and a few models like the NAM suggest even colder temps. way back in 2001 (I remember it b/c it was my 30th birthday) I planted a large annual/periennal garden on 5/5 given or take-the next morning there was a light frost on the roofs and cars-definitely some damage to some of the plants. Goes to show you it's not totally safe until about 5/12-5/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: move to London or Eureka CA 2 places i thought about when it comes to this kinda weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 13 hours ago, MJO812 said: AO and NAO are negative right now. Unbelievable. would have bet this 6 months ago....same crap as last year. -nao in the spring and summer.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 This may be a new surface to 500 mb steep lapse rate record for our area on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 May Have to take a drive from Lynbrook Long Island to Liberty NY to witness a rare May snow event Just wish NYC/LI could see snow in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 14 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Maybe they could add a few more languages to the signs. It could be that these pictured future world leaders aren’t familiar with the languages that are posted. Young people don't read, it's a social disadvantage to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 15 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Maybe they could add a few more languages to the signs. It could be that these pictured future world leaders aren’t familiar with the languages that are posted. https://youtu.be/c9lh7lqZojc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 A high temperature not getting out of the 40s in early to mid May without any rain is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 1 hour ago, WarrenCtyWx said: A high temperature not getting out of the 40s in early to mid May without any rain is unreal. It really is. Happened imby last year but it was a rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: way back in 2001 (I remember it b/c it was my 30th birthday) I planted a large annual/periennal garden on 5/5 given or take-the next morning there was a light frost on the roofs and cars-definitely some damage to some of the plants. Goes to show you it's not totally safe until about 5/12-5/15 When I was a kid the guidance was always to put the sensitive plants out after May 15. Even though things have warmed since then and a lot of years you can get away with planting the tomatoes early, it seems that May 15 is still the date if you want a high degree of confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 I believe that 5-22-02 was the latest freeze for the coldest spots on Long Island. Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2002 05-22 (2002) 32 10-15 (2002) 31 145 2016 05-20 (2016) 32 10-11 (2016) 31 143 2008 05-20 (2008) 31 10-07 (2008) 31 139 2003 05-19 (2003) 32 10-03 (2003) 29 136 2000 05-16 (2000) 30 10-09 (2000) 32 145 2013 05-15 (2013) 32 10-19 (2013) 32 156 1999 05-15 (1999) 31 10-06 (1999) 31 143 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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