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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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during the 1960's there was a little snow just to the north of NYC in 1966 and 1967...I saw some wet flakes mixed in with heavy rain and temps in the upper 30's on 5/6/1967 ...Washington DC had a few flurries during the early morning on May 1st...NYC just missed as precip stopped and temps dropped into the 30's...On May 9th, 1966 precip stopped as temps fell into the mid 30's...on 5/27/1961 NYC had a max/min of 47/41 with rain...both record lows...Some places saw IP's like LGA...On May 25th 1967 NYC had a max/ min of 46/42 with light rain...record low max and near record low min...there was snow way north of the city...

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Last weekend's brief bout of warmth is now a memory. Colder air is now drilling into the region.

Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below.

The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows:

Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019
Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019
Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010
Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992
Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978

Moderation may commence near mid-month.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +5.00 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.631.

On May 3, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.391 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.475.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 52degs., or about 8.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  +4.2[62.8].       Should be about  -4.4[55.6] by the 13th.

48* here at 6am.       47* at 7am.        56* by 1pm.         65* by 6pm.

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Models continuing with record low May 500 mb heights this weekend. The Euro has a -5 SD event with the TPV. So maybe we can see some flurries if the precipitation coincides with the lowest temperatures in the morning. Would be a tie with 1977 for the latest trace of snow at the coast. 
 

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If ever there was a year to have high humidity, heat, and clear skies, this would be it. Viral droplets do not spread efficiently in humidity and sunshine will help kill them off. It isn't a huge reduction in R0 but ANY reduction in R0 is a good thing.

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may be more of an incremental warm up with that big cold pool to our east. So we’ll probably have to wait a while longer for our first 90.

B377CB47-AB53-4176-B9D9-F47D86845765.thumb.png.7fe772c01c5354ae3d0216dba7e94c0f.png
A4FFC685-0DF9-4EE2-B16E-9153771C188E.thumb.png.764ada820b65455777da265cbfa1221a.png

probably up and down temps with convection

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

18z NAM with a rare late season interior snow. Maybe some flakes to the coast behind the storm. Models really struggling with the TPV storm details. 

1B38177D-DBE5-4A76-B64E-0E8B88348D39.thumb.png.07296e9ee7f74f4008dbfe1e3751109c.png

 

GFS went way south. Wonder if models are too amped with this. NAO/AO turning negative too.

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

If ever there was a year to have high humidity, heat, and clear skies, this would be it. Viral droplets do not spread efficiently in humidity and sunshine will help kill them off. It isn't a huge reduction in R0 but ANY reduction in R0 is a good thing.

Not to mention seasonal allergies (pollen) will now likely extend into early summer given the cool spring.

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