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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Today was another warm day with temperatures again rising into the 70s and even 80s across the region. At Central Park, the temperature peaked at 80°. The last time the temperature reached 80° in New York City was October 2, 2019 when the temperature hit a daily record of 93°.

High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 72°; Hartford: 81°; Islip: 73°; New York City: 80°; Newark: 80°; and, Philadelphia: 79°.

This weekend's brief bout of warmth will become a memory in coming days. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below.

The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows:

Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019
Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019
Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010
Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992
Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978

Moderation may commence near mid-month.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +7.22 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.438.

On May 2, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.361 (RMM). The May 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.414.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

 

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3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Very nice week coming up low to mid 60s with sun is fine, week looks mostly dry

Self-destructive sun likely with strong cold pool aloft. Could see a lot of afternoon showers. 

Coastal threats popping up as well midweek and weekend. Rare May flakes are not out of the question. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 52.5degs., or about 7.5degs. BN.  (used 67/47 for today)

The GFS ENS for the next 17 days is averaging 51degs., or about 10.5degs.  BN.

64* here at 6am.         65* by 9am.       67* by Noon.         68* by 2pm.           62* by 4pm, wind busy for last 2hrs.         57* by 8pm.         54* by 9pm.

 

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Euro hinting at possibly the lowest 500mb heights on record for May next weekend. The TPV drops into the Northeast with a -4 to -5 SD departure. TPV related storm details can be difficult beyond 120 hrs. But portions of the Northeast can see late season snow along with impressive May cold for most. 

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7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Jumped into the 70’s here a lot quicker than the previous two days. I was expecting today to be cooler than the previous two days but so far it’s warmer than both were at this time.

that's what a top five highest minimum May 4th day will do for you...

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11 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Jumped into the 70’s here a lot quicker than the previous two days. I was expecting today to be cooler than the previous two days but so far it’s warmer than both were at this time.

Yeah expected temps to stay steady, maybe fall but it's up to 73 instead

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28 minutes ago, uncle W said:

that's what a top five highest minimum May 5th day will do for you...

It really made a huge difference out here.

22 minutes ago, dWave said:

Yeah expected temps to stay steady, maybe fall but it's up to 73 instead

I was expecting mid to upper 60’s at best, but it’s 75.

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