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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Only 60 right now at Oak Beach with 35mph south winds. Low-mid 60s in Long Beach. 

Portions of the South Shore could see their first 80 degree reading of spring today. We finally get a warmer offshore flow for a change. The spring high so far at JFK is 78 and 79 at ISP.

 

42ECF804-70FD-481B-A655-7ABC8CE6A7A1.thumb.gif.00ac84ff5389505b24df0d50da0077d2.gif

 

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Made it to 86 yesterday after back to back 80s Wed/Thu.  Today looks spectacular (wish we could have had this last memorial day weekend) but none the less low 80s and lowering humidity with partly to mainly sunny skies. Beach weather.

Warmer overall temps appear to be coming closer to  fruition on guidance in the 6/7 and beyond period.  Ridging moves from the Plains and GL into the east  in the period but appears to be potentially active storm wise.  Would seem likely for the first 90s of the season between 6/7 and 6/12.  Could be heading into the warmer but wetter theme for the summer.  Will see how it goes and if any strong heat can overspread the area a kin to 2008.

 

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Latest first 80 of the season at JFK since 2010.

Kennedy Intl   MOSUNNY   80  51  36 W10   

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-07 (2010) 09-08 (2012) 123
Mean 05-03 10-02 151
Maximum 05-25 (2016) 10-19 (2016) 177
2019 05-20 (2019) 86 10-02 (2019) 95 134
2018 05-02 (2018) 83 10-07 (2018) 80 157
2017 04-16 (2017) 83 10-10 (2017) 84 176
2016 05-25 (2016) 87 10-19 (2016) 86 146
2015 05-05 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 80 146
2014 05-26 (2014) 85 09-27 (2014) 84 123
2013 04-09 (2013) 83 10-04 (2013) 80 177
2012 04-17 (2012) 81 09-08 (2012) 83 143
2011 05-24 (2011) 82 10-10 (2011) 84 138
2010 04-07 (2010) 87 09-25 (2010) 87 170

 

 

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Following today's warmth, cooler air will move into the region for a few days. Warmer weather should follow the cool shot. Late in the first week of June into the start of the second week of June, readings could be in the 80s in at least parts of the region. Nevertheless, no excessive heat is likely through at least the ten days of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased.

The SOI was +17.79 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.352.

On May 29, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.310 (RMM). The May 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.367.

June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

 

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The last day of May is averaging 63degs., or 4degs. BN.

Month to date is  -2.1[60.2.].      May will end at  -2.1[60.3].

The first half of June is averaging about 70.5degs. or just about Normal.

58* here at 6am.           64* by Noon.

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5th coolest spring maximum temperature at Newark and 4th coolest at Philly.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1968 79 0
2 1967 83 0
- 1966 83 0
- 1958 83 0
- 1950 83 0
3 1971 84 0
- 1952 84 0
- 1940 84 0
4 1983 85 0
- 1982 85 0
5 2020 86 1
- 1997 86 0
- 1973 86 0
- 1961 86 0
- 1954 86 0

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1968 82 0
2 1950 83 0
3 1972 84 0
- 1967 84 0
- 1961 84 0
4 2020 85 1
- 1982 85 0
- 1966 85 0
- 1952 85 0
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Just now, bluewave said:

5th coolest spring maximum temperature at Newark and 4th coolest at Philly.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1968 79 0
2 1967 83 0
- 1966 83 0
- 1958 83 0
- 1950 83 0
3 1971 84 0
- 1952 84 0
- 1940 84 0
4 1983 85 0
- 1982 85 0
5 2020 86 1
- 1997 86 0
- 1973 86 0
- 1961 86 0
- 1954 86 0

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1968 82 0
2 1950 83 0
3 1972 84 0
- 1967 84 0
- 1961 84 0
4 2020 85 1
- 1982 85 0
- 1966 85 0
- 1952 85 0

1952 and 1966 had 100 degree heat near the end of June...

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21 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1952 and 1966 had 100 degree heat near the end of June...

100 degree days have been few and far between since the record Northeast Pacific warming in 13-14.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 
Missing Count
2019 1 0
2018 0 0
2017 1 0
2016 0 0
2015 0 0
2014 0 0
2013 2 0
2012 1 0
2011 1 0
2010 2 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 
Missing Count
2019 0 0
2018 0 0
2017 0 0
2016 0 0
2015 0 0
2014 0 0
2013 2 0
2012 3 0
2011 4 0
2010 4 0


74B0D183-E875-4F67-ADB8-E0904F5FDB7E.png.2859637d0581bb147004b52198d91eb6.png

 

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