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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Montreal's 98 degree high yesterday set a new all-time record . The old record was 97 degrees from August 8, 2001.

wow all time record set in May. That's like if we had a late May day at 107 or 108 in the city, 109 at Newark.

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4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 4 days of May are averaging 69degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.0[58.8].            May should end at  -2.3[60.1].

GFS OP says heatwave starts June 8.      The ENS is much lower out that far, but AN.

At any rate, by June 15 we enter what I always call the 80/80 period-----80 days of normal highs of at least 80 degrees.

62* here at 6am-(FOG<0.1mile).

Throughout much of this month, the GFS has often shown the development of heat in the extended range only to see the heat not materialize. It's unclear, but possible, that the partial fix for the wintertime cold bias/snowfall bias in the FV3 core might be responsible.

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Newark is on track for the 5th coolest spring maximum temperature at only 86 degrees.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1968 79 0
2 1967 83 0
- 1966 83 0
- 1958 83 0
- 1950 83 0
3 1971 84 0
- 1952 84 0
- 1940 84 0
4 1983 85 0
- 1982 85 0
5 2020 86 4
- 1997 86 0
- 1973 86 0
- 1961 86 0
- 1954 86 0
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On 5/27/2020 at 5:27 PM, uncle W said:

1944 and 1977 were noted for its heat waves topping out at 100 degrees...I didn't look at maps for those years to see if the overall pattern was the same in late May...1944 and 1977 are both in the 11 year hot summer cycle...next year is the cycle year...1943 was a hot summer...one of the few that preceded the 11 yr cycle...

Yes 1944 was one of our 11 yr cycle hot years, it really stands out compared to the other summers in that decade.  1977 was also part of the 11 yr cycle but its extreme heat was brief. possibly because of the second year el nino?  Still got us to 104 degrees!

 

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On 5/27/2020 at 3:04 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Burlington reached 94 degrees at 3 pm. That surpassed the daily record( 91 degrees set in 1944 and tied in 2016) and monthly record (93 degrees set on May 22, 1977 and tied on May 18, 2017).

Burlington topped out at 95 degrees!  It was 93 in the Poconos where I was.  How is all this heat escaping locations further south like us?  Weird to have heat coming in from the north!

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Burlington topped out at 95 degrees!  It was 93 in the Poconos where I was.  How is all this heat escaping locations further south like us?  Weird to have heat coming in from the north!

 

Once the continent dries out for the season the warm air is always away from the coasts. This doesn't bode well for the upcoming fire season, they have so many strikes against them already that this year could end up a real doozy. 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Burlington topped out at 95 degrees!  It was 93 in the Poconos where I was.  How is all this heat escaping locations further south like us?  Weird to have heat coming in from the north!

 

Deep southerly flow and the ridge being so steep that the warmest air aloft is shooting directly north of us. The marine influence one way or another this spring has been incredibly consistent. Almost no westerly flow at all. 

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Tomorrow will be another mostly cloudy day. Some sunshine could break through. In addition, some showers and perhaps thundershowers are also possible. Readings could rise well into the 70s.

Parts of Quebec continued to experience unseasonable heat.
Based on preliminary data, Îles de la Madeleine set a new May record high temperature of 77°(old record: 73°, 2001).

The final data from yesterday for Montreal and Quebec City revealed that both cities set May records and Montreal had its second highest temperature on record.

Montreal: 36.6°C/98°F ***New May Record***
Quebec City: 33.1°C/92°F *** New May Record***

For the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, no excessive heat is likely through at least the first week in June. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased.

The SOI was +1.55 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.581.

On May 27, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.484 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.316.

June will likely have a temperature anomaly within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Deep southerly flow and the ridge being so steep that the warmest air aloft is shooting directly north of us. The marine influence one way or another this spring has been incredibly consistent. Almost no westerly flow at all. 

Yeah, seems like a pattern for the summer.  Lots of humidity, not much heat for us.

 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Once the continent dries out for the season the warm air is always away from the coasts. This doesn't bode well for the upcoming fire season, they have so many strikes against them already that this year could end up a real doozy. 

I'll never forget that fire I saw near I-80 in the Delaware Water Gap, in February!  Sign of things to come?

The other thing is the two tropical storms in May, haven't seen that since 2012 and that was only the third time that happened.  As we all know, Sandy happened in 2012.

 

 

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The last 3 days of May are averaging 68degs., or 1deg AN.

Month to date is  -2.8[59.2].       May should end at  -2.3[60.1].

64* here at 6am, clammy look, but visibility about 7 miles.         68* by Noon.

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