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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

New all-time May record high possible for BTV today.  Impressive 588 to 591 DM ridge builds near the Northeast. Onshore flow in our area keeps the record heat well to the north.
 

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Monthly record is 93 (May 22, 1977 and May 17, 2017). Montreal and Quebec City might also make a run at their May records.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Monthly record is 93 (May 22, 1977 and May 17, 2017). Montreal and Quebec City might also make a run at their May records.

Also some new dew point records around that region.

 

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35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 2 pm, the temperature was 35 degrees C (95 degrees F) in Montreal. That surpassed the previous May record of 34.7 degrees C (94 degrees F), which was set on May 26, 2010.

Their all time record high is 97 so this is remarkable. Ottawa is currently at 97 and their all time record high is 100.

Even crazier is that their low temps during the weekend may drop to upper 30s.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Burlington reached 94 degrees at 3 pm. That surpassed the daily record( 91 degrees set in 1944 and tied in 2016) and monthly record (93 degrees set on May 22, 1977 and tied on May 18, 2017).

1944 and 1977 were noted for its heat waves topping out at 100 degrees...I didn't look at maps for those years to see if the overall pattern was the same in late May...1944 and 1977 are both in the 11 year hot summer cycle...next year is the cycle year...1943 was a hot summer...one of the few that preceded the 11 yr cycle...

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BTV added another degree to their all-time May monthly high at 95 degrees. Newark only reached 95 or higher twice since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 86 5
2019 90 0
2018 94 0
2017 94 0
2016 96 0
2015 91 0
2014 88 0
2013 94 0
2012 92 0
2011 92 0
2010 95 0
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As had been the case yesterday, clouds broke for sunshine and temperatures rose into the upper 70s across much of the region. Tomorrow will likely be mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers and cooler as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bertha pass well to the west of the region.

Parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Quebec and Ontario saw record heat. In some places, new May records were set.

High temperatures included:

Burlington: 95° (old record: 91°, 1944 and 2016) ***New May Record***
Caribou: 87°
Montreal: 96° (old record: 89°, 1978 and 2016) ***New May Record***
Ottawa: 95° (old record: 93°, 1914)
Quebec City: 90°
Saranac Lake, NY: 93° (old record: 88°, 1914)

Montreal's 96° (35.8°C) temperature was the hottest temperature recorded anywhere in Canada today.

Some of those areas could see near record to record warmth again tomorrow. Much cooler air will arrive there for the coming weekend.

No excessive heat appears likely through at least the first week in June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799.

On May 26, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.315 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.276.

Uncertainty still exists with regard to June. However, the recent guidance has begun to converge on a scenario where the temperature anomaly would be within 1° of normal (some areas on the cool side, others on the warm side) within the region.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.1°. That would be the coolest May since 2008 when the monthly temperature was also 60.1°.

 

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The last 4 days of May are averaging 69degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.0[58.8].            May should end at  -2.3[60.1].

GFS OP says heatwave starts June 8.      The ENS is much lower out that far, but AN.

At any rate, by June 15 we enter what I always call the 80/80 period-----80 days of normal highs of at least 80 degrees.

Latest GFS OP finally goes all the way.      Predicts first 100-Degree Day   (101 on June 10th.).

62* here at 6am-(FOG<0.1mile).          66* by 11am and visibility 5 miles.

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