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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Mid 60s today here. Glad I’m not on the south shore. 

15th negative departure day this month in NYC.

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         68        MM  93    1996  72     -4       71
  MINIMUM         46        MM  40    1907  55     -9       56
  AVERAGE         57                        64     -7       64
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This morning, temperatures fell to near record lows with a few record lows in the region. Low temperatures included:

Allentown: 34°
Bridgeport: 41°
Islip: 39° (tied record set in 2009)
New York City-JFK: 42° (old record: 43°, 2002)
New York City-LGA: 48°
New York City-NYC: 46°
Newark: 47°
Poughkeepsie: 36°
Westhampton: 32°
White Plains: 38°

Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry. The final days of the month could end on a warmer note.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +10.97 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.001.

On May 20, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.331.

Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

 

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9 hours ago, JoshSnow said:

66 and perfect. I hope it starts getting hot we need some hot weather now it’s about time we get it. Looks muggy and periodically wet the next couple of weeks. I love that weather. 

Average highs are in the mid 70s. The 90s can wait till July.

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The next 8 days are averaging 68.5degs., or 2.5degs. AN for a change.

Month to date is  -3.8[57.2].       Should be  -2.1[60.2] by the 30th.

The average of the GFS OP/ENS. for the last 10 days of May is 70/65 or 67.5.     With this, May ends at  -2.0[60.4].       Neither the EURO OP or GFS ENS even hit 80 for the period.      The GFS says damn the easterly flow.       Maybe it will be accurate for inland areas.

57* here at 6am.      60* at 8am.       62* at 9am.         66* by Noon.         68* by 2pm.       65* by 4pm.          62* by10pm. (Fog 0.5mi. for past several hours)

 

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46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cool onshore flow continuing into early next week. Then we transition to a warmer 80+ pattern away from the shore. The warm up is followed by the next cool down to start June.

836B88C9-5AA7-4D23-B818-4A289EB4FDE2.thumb.png.fe8f901868c689fb53f6c26c9ea1c40b.png

A0A4D975-E19D-43BD-B9CB-5B776C799E86.thumb.png.8cc8ad311f6ecba7493b5ee9ce7241f6.png

FEBCB896-4D1B-46A0-B58D-13DB25683B7A.thumb.png.49886d9e39ffb01751699ca579551d6e.png

 

 

More Barney purples to start June. 

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Cool onshore flow continuing into early next week. Then we transition to a warmer 80+ pattern away from the shore. The warm up is followed by the next cool down to start June.
836B88C9-5AA7-4D23-B818-4A289EB4FDE2.thumb.png.fe8f901868c689fb53f6c26c9ea1c40b.png
A0A4D975-E19D-43BD-B9CB-5B776C799E86.thumb.png.8cc8ad311f6ecba7493b5ee9ce7241f6.png
FEBCB896-4D1B-46A0-B58D-13DB25683B7A.thumb.png.49886d9e39ffb01751699ca579551d6e.png
 
 
Seems like the seasons have been pushed forward a month lately. It's gonna be June soon and it feels like end of April.
Woke up to 35 degrees yesterday. By the time we heat up we start losing daylight.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

More Barney purples to start June. 

The MJO is only spending a brief period in the warm phases next week. So it quickly returns to the cooler 8-1 phases to start June. This is pretty much opposite of what happened from mid-December through March.

DF86B92B-3D52-44C8-851C-0B4292B39394.gif.a10e73d0125e22f551f1fc27ff9989aa.gif

 

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is only spending a brief period in the warm phases next week. So it quickly returns to the cooler 8-1 phases to start June. This is pretty much opposite of what happened from mid-December through March.

DF86B92B-3D52-44C8-851C-0B4292B39394.gif.a10e73d0125e22f551f1fc27ff9989aa.gif

 

 

Could April, May & June be BN? When's the last time that happened. 

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23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could April, May & June be BN? When's the last time that happened. 

The last below normal AMJ was in 2003.

2020 39.1 40.1 48.0 50.4 57.2 M

 

2003 27.5 30.1 43.1 49.8 58.7 68.4

 

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Getting past the ULL Fri / Sat, the rest of the memorial day weekend looks much like the past week onshore flow / Calinfornia style weather.

Temps warming Tue/Wed with first shot of 90s Thu-Sat (5/28 - 5/30) in the warmer spots - expecting temps to beat current guidance..  Cold front arrives Sat/Sun next weekend with cooler start to June 5/31 - 6/4 as ridge builds into the  Plains/ GL.  Gotta watch hung / slow frontal passage 5/31 - 6/2.  Way out there there but  6/5  still troughing pushing into the WC, with ridge  orientation needing to improve to get the sustained warmth into the east.  Will be interesting to see how it progresses and if the current dry is ended with an abrupt soaker a few days.  

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1 hour ago, tek1972 said:

Seems like the seasons have been pushed forward a month lately. It's gonna be June soon and it feels like end of April.
Woke up to 35 degrees yesterday. By the time we heat up we start losing daylight.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

There had been a June cool pocket over the Northeast since the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

89A30365-FDDA-449C-9B3B-DF67FAC37B03.png.ed8235f7cb01864850655600cd51d52b.png


F7FD2329-40FF-4CBC-87EB-0DF8311793D8.png.85adfdfbc5f4ef9de21c8d07541bcefb.png

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Getting past the ULL Fri / Sat, the rest of the memorial day weekend looks much like the past week onshore flow / Calinfornia style weather.

Temps warming Tue/Wed with first shot of 90s Thu-Sat (5/28 - 5/30) in the warmer spots - expecting temps to beat current guidance..  Cold front arrives Sat/Sun next weekend with cooler start to June 5/31 - 6/4 as ridge builds into the  Plains/ GL.  Gotta watch hung / slow frontal passage 5/31 - 6/2.  Way out there there but  6/5  still troughing pushing into the WC, with ridge  orientation needing to improve to get the sustained warmth into the east.  Will be interesting to see how it progresses and if the current dry is ended with an abrupt soaker a few days.  

Any chance of snow? :D

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