May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

Newark has only reached 70 degrees or higher on 9 days since March 1st. This is the 4 lowest number of days on record through May 18th. Big reversal from years like 2010, 2012, and 2015.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	1966-05-18	4	0
2	1978-05-18	7	0
3	1967-05-18	8	0
4	2020-05-18	9	0
-	1997-05-18	9	0
5	1968-05-18	10	0
-	1940-05-18	10	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	2012-05-18	29	0
-	2010-05-18	29	0
2	1985-05-18	28	0
-	1977-05-18	28	0
3	1945-05-18	26	0
4	1981-05-18	24	0
-	1976-05-18	24	0
5	2015-05-18	23	0

[Brian5671]

A bit windy but a nice sunny day out there-65 here

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

A bit windy but a nice sunny day out there-65 here

more the n just a bit windy gale force winds...

[SACRUS]

California weather ensues this week.  Breezy but nice out with partly sunny skies in the mid - upper 60s today.  Onshore flow wont let go the next week but keeping the ULL well south and west till Fri PM / Sat when first shot at rain before more dry days look likely.  I Still think its a matter of delayed not denied as we move into a period of warmth with a potential 2008 style hot period.  First 90s on/around 5/28.  Not sure if thats the change to warmer but do see tendency for WC troughing and ridging east of HI to open June.

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark has only reached 70 degrees or higher on 9 days since March 1st. This is the 4 lowest number of days on record through May 18th. Big reversal from years like 2010, 2012, and 2015.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	1966-05-18	4	0
2	1978-05-18	7	0
3	1967-05-18	8	0
4	2020-05-18	9	0
-	1997-05-18	9	0
5	1968-05-18	10	0
-	1940-05-18	10	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	2012-05-18	29	0
-	2010-05-18	29	0
2	1985-05-18	28	0
-	1977-05-18	28	0
3	1945-05-18	26	0
4	1981-05-18	24	0
-	1976-05-18	24	0
5	2015-05-18	23	0

Interesting mix there with subsequent summers -  the very hot 66, warm 78 and cool 67, 97 and normal 68, not sure of 1940.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case through at least Friday. Conditions will also remain generally dry.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +0.17 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.696.

On May 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.743 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.464.

Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.6°.

 

50s summers were roasting hot and featured 100s from June through August (and sometimes September!)  Also lots of east coast landfalling tropical systems.  I think there was a year in there when the northeast had 3 landfalling hurricanes?

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Interesting mix there with subsequent summers -  the very hot 66, warm 78 and cool 67, 97 and normal 68, not sure of 1940.

1966 was one of my all time favorite summers, although I was not born yet   Just from a statistical perspective- hot and dry!  The winter that followed would also be among my all time favorites, 1966-67!  Nothing is better than hot and dry followed by cold and snowy!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

California weather ensues this week.  Breezy but nice out with partly sunny skies in the mid - upper 60s today.  Onshore flow wont let go the next week but keeping the ULL well south and west till Fri PM / Sat when first shot at rain before more dry days look likely.  I Still think its a matter of delayed not denied as we move into a period of warmth with a potential 2008 style hot period.  First 90s on/around 5/28.  Not sure if thats the change to warmer but do see tendency for WC troughing and ridging east of HI to open June.

2008 was hot?  No, 2010 was hot lol.  Warm and humid with high mins doesn't count in my book

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark has only reached 70 degrees or higher on 9 days since March 1st. This is the 4 lowest number of days on record through May 18th. Big reversal from years like 2010, 2012, and 2015.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	1966-05-18	4	0
2	1978-05-18	7	0
3	1967-05-18	8	0
4	2020-05-18	9	0
-	1997-05-18	9	0
5	1968-05-18	10	0
-	1940-05-18	10	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	2012-05-18	29	0
-	2010-05-18	29	0
2	1985-05-18	28	0
-	1977-05-18	28	0
3	1945-05-18	26	0
4	1981-05-18	24	0
-	1976-05-18	24	0
5	2015-05-18	23	0

2010 was actually a lot like 1966 (and both were part of the 11 yr cycle).....

 

[NJwx85]

Upper 80’s in the forecast here for next week. Just in time for met Summer.

[nycwinter]

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Upper 80’s in the forecast here for next week. Just in time for met Summer.

you must not be close to the coast...

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Interesting mix there with subsequent summers -  the very hot 66, warm 78 and cool 67, 97 and normal 68, not sure of 1940.

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1966 was one of my all time favorite summers, although I was not born yet   Just from a statistical perspective- hot and dry!  The winter that followed would also be among my all time favorites, 1966-67!  Nothing is better than hot and dry followed by cold and snowy!

 

That 1962-1966 drought was the most intense since the 1600’s. The 1966 record heat was at the end of that historic dry period. Our climate has become much wetter and humid since then. 

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

 

 

 

 

[Newman]

Currently only ~0.8" of precip has been recorded this May at Newark, and looking at future guidance it's possible Newark could end up with only around 1" of precip in the entire month of May 2020 if the drier guidance verifies. The average for the month of May is around 4" for reference. Now, I don't expect 1" to be a record, but it got me thinking: What's the record minimum amount of precip ever recorded at Newark for the Month of May?

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Newman said:

Currently only ~0.8" of precip has been recorded this May at Newark, and looking at future guidance it's possible Newark could end up with only around 1" of precip in the entire month of May 2020 if the drier guidance verifies. The average for the month of May is around 4" for reference. Now, I don't expect 1" to be a record, but it got me thinking: What's the record minimum amount of precip ever recorded at Newark for the Month of May?

Looks like Newark has a shot at top 10 driest May unless we get a heavy rain event near the end of the month.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1964	0.52	0
2	1939	0.78	0
3	2020	0.81	13
4	1941	0.98	0
5	1935	1.01	0
6	2005	1.21	0
7	1965	1.23	0
8	1977	1.31	0
9	1986	1.41	0
10	1962	1.46	0

[Newman]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Newark has a shot at top 10 driest May unless we get a heavy rain event near the end of the month.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1964	0.52	0
2	1939	0.78	0
3	2020	0.81	13
4	1941	0.98	0
5	1935	1.01	0
6	2005	1.21	0
7	1965	1.23	0
8	1977	1.31	0
9	1986	1.41	0
10	1962	1.46	0

Thanks for that. And yeah it'll be interesting, latest Euro paints only around 0.2-0.3" entering May 29th. Verbatim, with 3 days left, could be within the 4th-6th lowest ever May range. Long ways to go though.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

That 1962-1966 drought was the most intense since the 1600’s. The 1966 record heat was at the end of that historic dry period. Our climate has become much wetter and humid since then. 

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

 

 

 

 

yes thats why I dont buy some of these climate projections of us averaging 3 100 degree days by 2050.....it will be untolerably humid and air pollution will become horrid (already has) but our highs wont rise all that much because of all the humidity and rain, the mins will be affected much more.....we'll have a Miami like climate.....they dont hit 100 much either.

all the humidity and rainfall will blunt the high temps, but it will feel much worse than the dry heat of 1966 and 2010 did.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Newark has a shot at top 10 driest May unless we get a heavy rain event near the end of the month.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1964	0.52	0
2	1939	0.78	0
3	2020	0.81	13
4	1941	0.98	0
5	1935	1.01	0
6	2005	1.21	0
7	1965	1.23	0
8	1977	1.31	0
9	1986	1.41	0
10	1962	1.46	0

I wonder if this could lead to a rare dry summer?

 

[uncle W]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if this could lead to a rare dry summer?

 

the four summers from 1962-1965 were cooler than average and drier than average...August was especially cool...many record lows from those years still on the books for August...1963 set a record low...1964 broke it the next year...come October 1964 set a record high breaking the old record set in 1963...

[uncle W]

the warm season in 1962 had only 8 days with a minimum 70 or above...1963 had 14...1964 had 19...1965 with 17...the least amount of 70 or higher minimum days recently was 18 in 2009...

year....70 degree minimum days since 1930...

1962...….8

1946.....11

1950.....13

1963.....14

1992.....14

1965.....17

1967.....17

2009.....18

1954.....18

1964.....19

[WarrenCtyWx]

June 2008 had a pretty impressive heat wave early on.

[nycwinter]

20 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

June 2008 had a pretty impressive heat wave early on.

so did 2002 in april...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Thanks for that. And yeah it'll be interesting, latest Euro paints only around 0.2-0.3" entering May 29th. Verbatim, with 3 days left, could be within the 4th-6th lowest ever May range. Long ways to go though.

 

Record rainfall continuing over the Great Lakes.

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2020-05-05-great-lakes-record-levels-april

 

[uncle W]

some early season heat waves in nyc...

year...dates.......max. temps...95+
1880...5/25-27.....96 95 95
1895...5/30-6/3... 96 96 96
1896...5/9-11...... 92
1899...6/5-8.........95
1919...6/2-4........ 95
1925...6/3-7........ 99 99 98 96
1930...6/3-5........ 94
1931...5/28-30.... 93
1966...6/4-6........ 95
1976...4/17-19.... 96
1984...6/7-11...... 96 95
1986...5/30-6/1... 94
1987...5/29-6/1... 97
2000...5/7-9........ 93
2001...5/2-4........ 92
2002...4/16-18.... 96
2008...6/7-10...... 96 96

2013...5/30-6/1... 90

[jm1220]

The weekend could be pretty nasty/raw if the GFS/Euro are right. The upper low and surface reflection finally come east and a high builds over Nova Scotia. Probably means pretty stiff east wind and clouds/showers. By mid next week the ridge might finally push far enough east to turn the flow westerly and really warm us up. As long as these highs keep building NE of us we stay in this pattern. 

[doncat]

66° high today...Down to 55° currently.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

the warm season in 1962 had only 8 days with a minimum 70 or above...1963 had 14...1964 had 19...1965 with 17...the least amount of 70 or higher minimum days recently was 18 in 2009...

year....70 degree minimum days since 1930...

1962...….8

1946.....11

1950.....13

1963.....14

1992.....14

1965.....17

1967.....17

2009.....18

1954.....18

1964.....19

I would have loved the lower humidity, warm or cool....I still remember my first viewing of the Perseids in August 1986, no haze and 50 degree lows!  That kind of visibility was never matched again......

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

so did 2002 in april...

historic, a near match for 1976....and some of the bluest skies I've ever seen

[SACRUS]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2008 was hot?  No, 2010 was hot lol.  Warm and humid with high mins doesn't count in my book

 

Not referring to th summer overall but rather the strong heat in early June that followed the cool may.  Something like that is in the cards especially should it remain dryer than normal..

[donsutherland1]

Another May day, another day with cooler than normal readings. That has been the story through much of this month. That will remain the story for the foreseeable future.

Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was -8.71 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.444.

On May 18, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.692 (RMM). The May 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.746.

Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°.

 

[KEITH L.I]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1966 was one of my all time favorite summers, although I was not born yet   Just from a statistical perspective- hot and dry!  The winter that followed would also be among my all time favorites, 1966-67!  Nothing is better than hot and dry followed by cold and snowy!

 

I was 8 years old..it was very hot especially late June and early July. It hit 100 three times..snowy and cold the following winter with a snowstorm Christmas eve..a warm January and snow and cold all Feb and March