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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Beauty out there 68 so far.  Back into the dinginess next 10 days.  Looking like till later part of May for a  possible transition into less troughing in the east.  2008 feel to me, ended the cool with a resounding heatwave.  

 

 

 

All of next week looks dry?

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5 hours ago, uncle W said:

1976 comes after a early heat wave in mid April...1976 is the latest 38 or low for so late in the season...1977 came after the earliest 90 degree day in April...about a week or two later it was back in the 90's...1978 came on the first...it too saw 90's later in the month...1970 had a 90 degree day a few days later...

Its interesting when you look at the NYC record lows how after 5/12 there's a pretty good uptick with almost all of them jumping 5-6-7 degrees from the first 10-12 days of the month.

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32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its interesting when you look at the NYC record lows how after 5/12 there's a pretty good uptick with almost all of them jumping 5-6-7 degrees from the first 10-12 days of the month.

yeah after the 11th its mostly 40's...

5/9 35 in 1947 36 in 1977 38 in 1923
5/10 36 in 1966 36 in 1947 38 in 1923+
5/11 36 in 1913 37 in 1923 41 in 1945+
5/12 40 in 1907 40 in 1874 41 in 1938
5/13 39 in 1895 41 in 1928 41 in 1878
5/14 40 in 1878 41 in 1871 42 in 2013+
5/15 42 in 1947 42 in 1920 43 in 1880
5/16 42 in 1878 43 in 2016 43 in 1983+
5/17 39 in 1956 40 in 1888 41 in 1983
5/18 41 in 1973 42 in 1976 42 in 1882
5/19 38 in 1976 41 in 2002 42 in 1882
5/20 43 in 2002 43 in 1907 45 in 1994+
5/21 40 in 1907 42 in 2002 45 in 1949+
5/22 42 in 1907 44 in 1990 45 in 1895+
5/23 43 in 1963 44 in 1976 44 in 1935
5/24 39 in 1963 43 in 1877 44 in 1956+
5/25 41 in 1925 42 in 1967 42 in 1956
5/26 42 in 1967 43 in 1925 45 in 1930+
5/27 41 in 1961 43 in 1915 45 in 1930
5/28 43 in 1961 43 in 1907 44 in 1927
5/29 43 in 1902 43 in 1884 44 in 1936
5/30 42 in 1884 45 in 1949 46 in 1961
5/31 46 in 1938 46 in 1930 46 in 192
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49 minutes ago, uncle W said:

yeah after the 11th its mostly 40's...

5/9 35 in 1947 36 in 1977 38 in 1923
5/10 36 in 1966 36 in 1947 38 in 1923+
5/11 36 in 1913 37 in 1923 41 in 1945+
5/12 40 in 1907 40 in 1874 41 in 1938
5/13 39 in 1895 41 in 1928 41 in 1878
5/14 40 in 1878 41 in 1871 42 in 2013+
5/15 42 in 1947 42 in 1920 43 in 1880
5/16 42 in 1878 43 in 2016 43 in 1983+
5/17 39 in 1956 40 in 1888 41 in 1983
5/18 41 in 1973 42 in 1976 42 in 1882
5/19 38 in 1976 41 in 2002 42 in 1882
5/20 43 in 2002 43 in 1907 45 in 1994+
5/21 40 in 1907 42 in 2002 45 in 1949+
5/22 42 in 1907 44 in 1990 45 in 1895+
5/23 43 in 1963 44 in 1976 44 in 1935
5/24 39 in 1963 43 in 1877 44 in 1956+
5/25 41 in 1925 42 in 1967 42 in 1956
5/26 42 in 1967 43 in 1925 45 in 1930+
5/27 41 in 1961 43 in 1915 45 in 1930
5/28 43 in 1961 43 in 1907 44 in 1927
5/29 43 in 1902 43 in 1884 44 in 1936
5/30 42 in 1884 45 in 1949 46 in 1961
5/31 46 in 1938 46 in 1930 46 in 192

My latest temp in the 30's is a 39° reading on the 21st...Have been as  low as 36° on the 18th.

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58 minutes ago, doncat said:

Huh where do you see that?....Highest hourly reading  I see is 74°. High looks like 75°.

SORRY, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.        MADE SCHOOL GIRL  ERROR OF USING  "NEW" INSTEAD OF "EWR" FOR NEWARK, AND GOT NEW ORLEANS DATA!!!

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A notably warmer weekend is underway. Today, the temperature reached 70° in Central Park hit 70° for the first time since March 20 when the thermometer reached 77°.

High temperatures included: Allentown: 73°; Bridgeport: 74°; Harrisburg: 72°; Islip: 72°; New York City: 73°; Newark: 74°; and, Philadelphia: 73°.

Some parts of the region could experience similar or even warmer high temperatures tomorrow. Nevertheless, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

During the cold, New York City could see among its lowest May readings since 2000. Since 2000, there were 25 days on which the temperature fell to 45° or below in May; 15 days on which the temperature fell to 44° or below; 4 days on which the temperature fell to 43° or below; and, 3 days on which the temperature fell to 42° or below.

The last time the temperature fell below given thresholds in May were as follows:

Below 45°: 44°, May 15, 2019
Below 44°: 42°, May 13, 2019
Below 42°: 41°, May 10, 2010
Below 41°: 40°, May 6, 1992
Below 40°: 38°, May 1, 1978

Moderation may commence near mid-month.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during May.

The SOI has seen an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +3.77 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.487.

On May 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.412 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.611.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May.

 

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55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nicest day in weeks. Tomorrow looks awesome too then things go downhill.

Next weekend looks yuck. Multiple highs in 50s lows in 30s. Frost/freeze potential in colder areas probable.

I guess it could be worse. I've seen highs in the 40s for May before.

may 2005 was a dumpster fire 

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The next 8 days are averaging 55degs., or 5degs. BN.

The GFS ENS actually has 9 straight mornings in the upper 30's!       I will wait for the next run to calculate the next 17 days.

The ENS for the next 17 days is averaging 51degs., or 10degs. BN.        It has 10 straight lows in the upper 30's.

56* here at 6am.     55* at 6:30am.      59* at 9:00am.        Just 63* here at Noon.         66* at 1pm.      79*---80* throughout the period 5:30pm.7:30pm.        71* by 10pm.

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Looks like mid to upper 70’s today. Probably the warmest day for the first half of the month. While it will feel warm, temperatures will be much cooler than the record heat two years ago.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 2001.

 

 

2F5A5837-D065-48A0-8BEC-A9192F19C34C.thumb.png.19b07d3cf512057dc910928de613acfe.png

 

 

 

 

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