MJO812 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 5 hours ago, Rjay said: Not much rain lol If only the models were really accurate from 144 hours out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Probably a compromise between the now heavy QPF GFS and Euro which is now just west of the area with the heavy rains. Long duration cut off ULL Mon - Fri/Sat next week. Still much uncertainty of timing and positions but likely see 3 or 4 of the 5 days mainly cloudy with 1 or 2 days very wet and a sneaky partly cloudy nice day. Beyond there as we move into Memorial Day weekend we should see the ridge rebuild as the ULL moves out with warming temps and our first shot at some heat/ 90s into the Memorial day holiday and subsequent week 5/25. 68 degrees and clearing on our way to a third very nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Finally some nice weather arrives. Yesterday was great. Beautiful morning and you can feel the drier air has worked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 huh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: huh Forky, What is your early call for Memorial day weekend? Temp/precip for NYC metro area? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 11 hours ago, forkyfork said: rain. That track kind of reminds me of Sandy's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: https://nypost.com/2020/05/14/the-sun-has-entered-a-lockdown-period-which-could-cause-freezing-weather-famine/ crazy times coming or fake news? Fake So far this year, the sun has been “blank” with no sunspots 76 percent of the time, a rate surpassed only once before in the Space Age — last year, when it was 77 percent blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: If only the models were really accurate from 144 hours out lol thats for the week. Yesterday it had 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: huh The New Normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: huh The GFS tried to do the same with Joaquin while the Euro was OTS. You can see the 12z beginning to shift toward the other models. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/06/what-the-european-model-win-over-the-american-model-means-for-weather-forecasting/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS tried to do the same with Joaquin while all the other guidance was OTS. You can see the 12z beginning to shift toward the other models. Are you trying to say that this setup is impossible or just the GFS is bad at handling ULLs? Also keep in mind the GFS received a new upgrade since that time. Spring Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Are you trying to say that this setup is impossible or just the GFS is bad at handling ULLs? Also keep in mind the GFS received a new upgrade since that time. Spring Sandy The Euro does much better with tropical and trough interactions than the GFS. I would believe it if the 12z Euro came in more phased than the 0z run. But the 12z GFS took a step further east. The 12zCMC, UKMET, and NAM are similar to the 0z Euro more OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro does much better with tropical and trough interactions than the GFS. I would believe it if the 12z Euro came in more phased than the 0z run. But the 12z GFS took a step further east. The 12zCMC, UKMET, and NAM are similar to the 0z Euro more OTS. Did you see the eps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 WRF-NMM model. I think the GFS is perfectly capable of handling ULL interactions. The short-term motion is what is causing the changes. Most likely from the beefed up energy in Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 I feel like we won't see much rain but it'll be dreary, cloudy, breezy for most of the week. 50s to low 60s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Did you see the eps ? This was 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was 0z. 6z eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 16, 2020 Author Share Posted May 16, 2020 A very nice day today. Current temp 76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z eps 12z Euro is dry through 120 hrs with the tropical system remaining offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 16, 2020 Author Share Posted May 16, 2020 I personally would lean towards the Euro at this point but that does not mean it will be the end all be all result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Glad we’re not in the bullseye five days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Topped out at 78 here, low of 61, first low in the 60’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Hopefully the models shift the storm west. Interesting weather is better than boring weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Very well defined seabreeze on radar. Pushed through here and temp is down to 69 with a stiff east wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Yeah 66° now with that sea breeze, coming off a high of 78°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Cfa said: Topped out at 78 here, low of 61, first low in the 60’s. Today was a perfect day. Wish we had more days like this..San Diego like. 78 after a low of 65, now 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Early clouds gave way to abundant sunshine. In response, temperatures rose into the 70s across the region. Tomorrow will likely be cooler with readings mainly in the middle 60s. The potential exists for a very wet week next week though differences exist among the guidance. Much will depend on the track what will likely become Tropical Storm Arthur will take and how it interacts with a system coming out of the Ohio Valley. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +12.66 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.070. On May 15, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.052 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.076. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17, 2020 Author Share Posted May 17, 2020 High for the day was 79 here. Current temp 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully the models shift the storm west. Interesting weather is better than boring weather . It won't be coming west-looks like a pretty sharp recurve. We should know by now-once the Euro catches onto a particular solution with tropical systems it's much more likely right vs. the GFS. The Euro has several days at least of crap easterly flow and below normal temps/probably low clouds and garbage. The ridge is oriented west of us and a big trough is digging in NE of us and highs building over the Maritimes. To make it better we have a cutoff low SW of us to aid in dragging in the easterly flow garbage, with any interesting weather mostly well south of here. You know the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Maxed out at 76 for Saturday out here in the sticks of Warren County. Trees have been trying HARD to fully leaf out but the many morning freezes/frosts have been proving difficult out this way thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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