May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We really need to see this IO standing wave pattern break for any hope of a cold 20-21 winter

I wonder if the emerging Nina will disrupt it. I'm hoping we see a strong Nina to radically alter this stale pattern we've been in. 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, uncle W said:

up to 1970 the average annual rainfall for NYC was around 42"...since 1970 the average is around 50"...that's about 20% more over the last 50 years...

I think the map depicted just the Spring avg rainfall increase.

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We really need to see this IO standing wave pattern break for any hope of a cold 20-21 winter

one thing's for sure, the 2021 summer will be a true scorcher (it follows the 11 yr pattern.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The latest JMA summer forecast has a big IO standing wave pattern. It places the strongest ridging and warmest temperatures over the Western US. But there looks like a weak WAR keeping our temperature departures a little above normal. Pattern also looks wet and humid.

 

 

 

 

 

Sounds like quite a few of our summers post 2013.

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CanSIPS has the same summer pattern. The IO has had a big influence on our weather since the record +IOD last fall. 
 

 

 

Each of the ocean basins is taking its turn..... is this retrograding and will it be the Atlantic's turn next?  First it was the Pacific and then the Indian....

[Allsnow]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CanSIPS has the same summer pattern. The IO has had a big influence on our weather since the record +IOD last fall. 
 

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if the emerging Nina will disrupt it. I'm hoping we see a strong Nina to radically alter this stale pattern we've been in. 

Yeah, a strong Niña could at the very least cool the tropical pacific 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yeah, a strong Niña could at the very least cool the tropical pacific 

it remains to be seen if we see that though, I thought the projections were for a weak la nina or even cold neutral?

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it remains to be seen if we see that though, I thought the projections were for a weak la nina or even cold neutral?

 

Some are expecting a Niña but to early to tell. If we learned anything from the last two winters is it’s impossible to really know until late December. 
 

If we do see the same IO standing wave pattern next winter it will be important to have a weak PV. 

[Rtd208]

43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models clearly have a lot to work out next week. GFS radically different this run.

Hopefully ULL stays south of us, I'm ready for a nice long warm stretch.

Yep so far both the 12z GFS/CMC (and GEFS) have backed off on the heavy precipitation from early runs. The GFS actually backed off on the 00z run then went heavy again at 06z but now shows virtually nothing for us. So clearly the models are trying to figure out the placement of the ULL for next week and they probably wont begin to have an idea for another couple of days or so. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yeah, a strong Niña could at the very least cool the tropical pacific 

We had 2 recent winters with the La Niña background state and an El Niño that couldn’t really develop. The MJO remained  in the unfavorable phases. Models are hinting at a -IOD for next winter. This would mean more warm SST’s north of Australia near the Maritime Continent. So unfavorable MJO phases could be a player again. But the coupled La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18 had to deal with this . We were able to sneak in snowy intervals during those winters which alternated with record warmth. The last few winters the snowy intervals never materialized. So it will be interesting to see if a more coupled La Niña next winter resembles 16-17 and 17-18. Or has more in common with 18-19 and 19-20. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models clearly have a lot to work out next week. GFS radically different this run.

Hopefully ULL stays south of us, I'm ready for a nice long warm stretch.

yep, it suppresses the low-we get nothing from it and there's a big high building in

[Stormlover74]

Enhanced now northwestern areas

[qg_omega]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Enhanced now northwestern areas

Not seeing It

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yep, it suppresses the low-we get nothing from it and there's a big high building in

Easterly fetch would still keep us cool but far cry from what it was showing.

Will see if it shifts again.

PS. Looks like a bit of easterly influence today. Mid 60s here while mid 70s in western NJ. 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We had 2 recent winters with the La Niña background state and an El Niño that couldn’t really develop. The MJO remained  in the unfavorable phases. Models are hinting at a -IOD for next winter. This would mean more warm SST’s north of Australia near the Maritime Continent. So unfavorable MJO phases could be a player again. But the coupled La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18 had to deal with this . We were able to sneak in snowy intervals during those winters which alternated with record warmth. The last few winters the snowy intervals never materialized. So it will be interesting to see if a more coupled La Niña next winter resembles 16-17 and 17-18. Or has more in common with 18-19 and 19-20. 

this years el nino could end up as the weakest on record...oni has been +0.5 for five three month intervals...It may very well be another bad winter...timing has been off with very cold November outbreaks ( three years in a row ) and mild February's...1917-18 was a very good winter overall...I'll sign up for that now...

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

this years el nino could end up as the weakest on record...oni has been +0.5 for five three month intervals...It may very well be another bad winter...timing has been off with very cold November outbreaks ( three years in a row ) and mild February's...1917-18 was a very good winter overall...I'll sign up for that now...

Last two winters were supposed to be huge for us and were duds so I think I'll take my chances. 

The standard analogs have less punch than they used to.

Also it can't get any worse than last winter outside of zero snow I suppose.

[forkyfork]

maybe the upper low can go so far southwest we get back into a ridge pattern

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Last two winters were supposed to be huge for us and were duds so I think I'll take my chances. 

The standard analogs have less punch than they used to.

Also it can't get any worse than last winter outside of zero snow I suppose.

This past winter wasn’t supposed to be huge for us. I saw perditions mostly for below average snow. 

Also we don’t want a strong Nina. Those favor big SE ridges and heavy snow in the upper Midwest and I-90 north. 

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This past winter wasn’t supposed to be huge for us. I saw perditions mostly for below average snow. 

Also we don’t want a strong Nina. Those favor big SE ridges and heavy snow in the upper Midwest and I-90 north. 

10/11 was a strong nina but we had a strong -ao/-nao which caused all the nina pac jet disturbances to be snow for us until it broke down

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

10/11 was a strong nina but we had a strong -ao/-nao which caused all the nina pac jet disturbances to be snow for us until it broke down

what caused the extreme blocking in 10-11? was that an epo ridge?

la ninas after el ninos tend to be really good (remember 95-96 also), but this winter was barely an el nino.

 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what caused the extreme blocking in 10-11? was that an epo ridge?

la ninas after el ninos tend to be really good (remember 95-96 also), but this winter was barely an el nino.

 

Likely some type of atmospheric lag from the 09-10 Nino which usually has (and did) have significant blocking.  Obviously we did not see that same impact in the 98-99 winter but we did in the 83-84 winter which most would have probably forecast to be a torch and was not. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had 2 recent winters with the La Niña background state and an El Niño that couldn’t really develop. The MJO remained  in the unfavorable phases. Models are hinting at a -IOD for next winter. This would mean more warm SST’s north of Australia near the Maritime Continent. So unfavorable MJO phases could be a player again. But the coupled La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18 had to deal with this . We were able to sneak in snowy intervals during those winters which alternated with record warmth. The last few winters the snowy intervals never materialized. So it will be interesting to see if a more coupled La Niña next winter resembles 16-17 and 17-18. Or has more in common with 18-19 and 19-20. 

The last 30 years its been awfully hard to see 3 consecutive duds in a row.   We have been tending more towards extremes so it seems when we have 2 bad winters the next one has always been somewhat good.  1996-1999 was an exception

[doncat]

Another below normal day but still nice.... 63/39 temp split.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

This past winter wasn’t supposed to be huge for us. I saw perditions mostly for below average snow. 

Also we don’t want a strong Nina. Those favor big SE ridges and heavy snow in the upper Midwest and I-90 north. 

A lot of forecasts I've seen had near to above normal snow this year courtesy of west based Nino. 

Whatever the ENSO state it'll all depend on blocking as always. 

[Rtd208]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yep, it suppresses the low-we get nothing from it and there's a big high building in

 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Easterly fetch would still keep us cool but far cry from what it was showing.

Will see if it shifts again.

PS. Looks like a bit of easterly influence today. Mid 60s here while mid 70s in western NJ. 

While plenty of uncertainty still exists with regard to next week my hunch says we will end up being much drier then what the models were originally showing. We'll see.

[gravitylover]

23 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Do you know if they are blacklegged ticks or dog ticks? 

I don't.  I'll try to pay more attention and let you know.

[donsutherland1]

The exceptional cold pattern that led to parts of the region experiencing a rare May snowfall is now behind us. Moderation is underway.

Ahead of an approaching front, temperatures could surge into the upper 70s and even lower 80s across the region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely late in the day. A few could be strong. Despite tomorrow's warmth, the first 15 days of May will see readings average 4.0° to as much as 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal overall. There is some model and ensemble support for at least one bout of much above normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +8.90 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.230.

On May 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.959 (RMM). The May 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.927.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.8°.

 

[uncle W]

my first winter on this earth was 1949-50the first good winter of my life was 1955-56...only a great second half of March and April saved that winter...56-57 wasn't that great making one out of eight winters exceptable...the 1950's only had two exceptable winters...the sixties had five good to great winters...the 2000's had six good to great winters...the 2010's had eight...the last two winters were bad to worse  but we did  get a record breaking mid November snowstorm in 18-19 and a record breaking snow in May 2020....the terrible winter of 2011-12 had the greatest October snowstorm ever...Since 2010 there have been some record breaking snowfalls...

2009-10...three storms over 10" for the first time on record...snowiest February on record...

2010-11...two storms 19" or more for the first time on record...snowiest January on record...

2011-12...October snowstorm...first October snowstorm on record...

2012-13...Early November snowstorm two weeks after Hurricane Sandy...

2013-14...another 50" snow season...

2014-15...another 50" snow season...

2015-16...biggest snowfall on record in January...

2016-17...30" even though it was a mild winter...

2017-18...a 40" season...

2018-19...early mid November snowstorm...record early cold...

2019-20...May snowfall and record late cold...

[psv88]

67/35 split on the day, getting there...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs., or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is  -5.5[54.5].        Should be about  -4.2[57.2] by the 23rd.

The average of the GFS OP/ENS for the remainder of the month is about 63degs., or about 1.5degs. BN.       If so, May would end at  -3.3[59.1].     It would miss the Top Ten by a whole degree.

60* here at 6am.     62* here at 8am.     65* by 9am.         70* by 10:30am.        71* by Noon, sea breeze not helping here.         73* at 1pm.          79* by 4pm.>>>(84*---NYC, 85*---Newark----JFK is 71*, down from 76* at 1pm.)          82* at 5pm.