Rtd208 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 Current temp is 66 which is the high for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 4-6 inches of rain on the Euro centered over western NJ/Eastern PA Yeah W.NJ/E.PA would be the jackpot with 1-3" of rain in the NYC metro if the Euro is right. The GFS has the heavier rain a bit further east but placement will be difficult to pinpoint at this range. Regardless a prolonged heavy rain event is becoming increasingly likely for the area next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 This weather is horrible. Cold outside right now. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 At least it wasn't cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Very unusual 1800’s style April maximum temperature and May minimum temperature. Even more out of place following the 4th warmest December through March. So there are no analogs for this type of extreme pattern reversal. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1874 64 0 - 1873 64 0 2 1940 67 0 - 1875 67 0 3 2020 68 0 - 1883 68 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1891 32 0 2 1874 33 0 3 2020 34 19 4 1947 35 0 - 1880 35 0 5 1977 36 0 - 1966 36 0 - 1913 36 0 - 1876 36 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Mar 31 Missing Count 1 2012-03-31 43.1 0 2 2016-03-31 43.0 0 3 2002-03-31 42.2 0 4 2020-03-31 41.4 0 5 1998-03-31 41.1 0 6 1991-03-31 40.5 0 I saw some videos indicating that it snowed in Brooklyn during the day on Saturday. I thought the snow happened in the middle of the previous night? I wasn't aware that any snow fell in NYC or Long Island during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 3 hours ago, uncle W said: coldest May's since 1960... 1967...55.2... 2003...58.7... 1997...59.4... 1973...59.5... 1968...59.6... 2005...59.8... 1961...59.9... 1966-67 was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It has been the 7th coldest so far. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Apr 15 to May 12 Missing Count 1 1875-05-12 47.2 0 2 1874-05-12 47.6 0 3 1873-05-12 49.3 0 4 1917-05-12 50.0 0 5 1893-05-12 50.2 0 6 1967-05-12 50.5 0 7 2020-05-12 51.0 0 - 1882-05-12 51.0 0 Besides the amazing 1966-67 season all those years are during or prior to world war 1! Actually the vast majority are from the 1800s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 6 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC is at -5.3 for May through the 12th. April finished at -2.7. The last time NYC had a cold April and May was in 2003. So it will be interesting to see if the cool onshore pattern coming up is enough for May to finish below normal. The April average temperature in NYC is 53.0 and 62.4 in May Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Season 2020 50.4 54.4 52.4 2019 55.5 62.2 58.9 2018 49.5 66.9 58.2 2017 57.2 61.1 59.2 2016 53.3 62.8 58.1 2015 54.3 68.5 61.4 2014 52.3 64.0 58.2 2013 53.0 62.8 57.9 2012 54.8 65.1 60.0 2011 54.3 64.5 59.4 2010 57.9 65.3 61.6 2009 54.5 62.5 58.5 2008 55.0 60.1 57.6 2007 50.3 65.2 57.8 2006 55.7 63.1 59.4 2005 55.1 58.9 57.0 2004 53.6 65.2 59.4 2003 49.8 58.7 54.3 wow 2002-03 was the complete opposite of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 9 hours ago, uncle W said: after one of the coldest Mays on record June 1967 was warm...it turned out the only Summer month with temps above average...80 degrees this time of year is seasonably warm...I'd like to see a hot summer day...I hope today was the last of the record cold...it could get hot for a day or two...Some years had their hottest period of the year around the end of May...1880 with three straight days over 95 comes to mind...1969 and 1987 too... 1996 too, hottest weather of the year was in the third week of May after it had been record cold the week before..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Euro and EPS moving to more of an extended UL pattern along the East Coast starting with the backdoor on Sunday. The big warm up that the models were showing during this period will have to wait. The strongest ridging will remain to our west. So it looks like the 80+ on Friday will be our warmest day for a while. New run Old run this is looking more and more like a warm and wet summer coming up rather than hot and dry. You dont often get a hot summer with such a high soil moisture content. Might be a 1996 kind of summer oncoming, really humid but not hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, psv88 said: This weather is horrible. Cold outside right now. Brutal It was beautiful today in Garwood NJ (central Union County). Close to one of the ten best, in my opinion. I guess you'll have your nice days in the summer, when the rest of us are all sweltering? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Temperatures again ran below normal today, but slow moderation should commence in coming days. Nevertheless, the first 15 days of May could see readings average 4.0° to as much as 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Just before mid-month, the pattern will likely change bringing about warmer weather, including more frequent days where the temperature is above normal. The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal. There is model and ensemble support for at least one bout of much above normal readings. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +15.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.546. On May 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.933 (RMM). The May 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.650. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.8°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 13 hours ago, gravitylover said: Anecdotally, from mt bikers, it's worse than recent years but I've yet to pick one up myself. Do you know if they are blacklegged ticks or dog ticks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: It was beautiful today in Garwood NJ (central Union County). Close to one of the ten best, in my opinion. I guess you'll have your nice days in the summer, when the rest of us are all sweltering? NJ usually gets spring 3-4 weeks before we do. And yes we do enjoy the sea breeze come August, definitely nice to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 55 minutes ago, psv88 said: NJ usually gets spring 3-4 weeks before we do. And yes we do enjoy the sea breeze come August, definitely nice to have I didn't mind it outside much today actually. But yeah, days of more garbage easterly flow and wet weather incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Friday evening could be interesting. Probably nothing severe but maybe some decent storms if we get into the 80s as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 ...Northeast States... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward/southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast States on Friday. Strong mid-level flow attendant to this system will spread eastward just ahead of it while an associated surface low and cold front also move across the Northeast. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively, resulting in modest instability. Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon as the front interacts with this instability. Low to mid-level flow will strengthen over the region as the shortwave trough approaches, contributing to both moderate vertical shear and fast storm motions. Fast-moving bowing line segments, which may eventually amalgamate into a coherent convective line, will be the predominant storm mode. Damaging wind gusts from these bowing segments will be the primary severe hazard, although some isolated hail may occur, particularly with any more cellular/discrete storms. Additionally, moderate veering of the low-level wind profiles will support a low-probably tornado potential with both discrete development ahead of the line and line-embedded circulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 61.5degs., or about 2degs. BN. Month to date is -5.6[54.3]. Should be about -4.2[57.0] by the 22nd. 52* here at 6am. 54* at 7am. 57* by 9am. 63* by 4:30am. (sea breeze kept T variable all day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 11 hours ago, jm1220 said: I didn't mind it outside much today actually. But yeah, days of more garbage easterly flow and wet weather incoming. Springs seem to have gotten a lot rainier. Saw a map today that showed the Eastern US has gotten about 55% rainier in the last 60 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 14 hours ago, Dark Star said: It was beautiful today in Garwood NJ (central Union County). Close to one of the ten best, in my opinion. I guess you'll have your nice days in the summer, when the rest of us are all sweltering? to me a nice summer day is 95+ with high humidity 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: to me a nice summer day is 95+ with high humidity So that’s what happened to your avatar. As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 87F to 93F is my sweet spot, with dews in the 70’s and partly cloudy skies. 38F here this morning, this is far and away the latest I can recall seeing 30’s. Very quick rebound but still it’s ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Where’d the sun go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 37 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Where’d the sun go It’s still shinning on Red Hook, fo whatever good that does. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 16 hours ago, LibertyBell said: this is looking more and more like a warm and wet summer coming up rather than hot and dry. You dont often get a hot summer with such a high soil moisture content. Might be a 1996 kind of summer oncoming, really humid but not hot. The latest JMA summer forecast has a big IO standing wave pattern. It places the strongest ridging and warmest temperatures over the Western US. But there looks like a weak WAR keeping our temperature departures a little above normal. Pattern also looks wet and humid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Springs seem to have gotten a lot rainier. Saw a map today that showed the Eastern US has gotten about 55% rainier in the last 60 years. up to 1970 the average annual rainfall for NYC was around 42"...since 1970 the average is around 50"...that's about 20% more over the last 50 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Another beauty out there today building on Wednesday's great weather. Brief taste of summer Fri and some of Saturday before ocean flow and cutoff spoil an otherwise strong ridging pattern through Fri 5/22. Do think first shot of 90s isnt fa behind the ULL lifting out of the area in the 5/24-5/27 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest JMA summer forecast has a big IO standing wave pattern. It places the strongest ridging and warmest temperatures over the Western US. But there looks like a weak WAR keeping our temperature departures a little above normal. Pattern also looks wet and humid. We really need to see this IO standing wave pattern break for any hope of a cold 20-21 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We really need to see this IO standing wave pattern break for any hope of a cold 20-21 winter The CanSIPS has the same summer pattern. The IO has had a big influence on our weather since the record +IOD last fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Models clearly have a lot to work out next week. GFS radically different this run. Hopefully ULL stays south of us, I'm ready for a nice long warm stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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