May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark had a low of 34 on Saturday. If Newark can reach 84 degrees on Friday, then it would be a 50 degree temperature rise. The 6 day record for May was 50 degrees set back in 1996. NYC needs to reach 81 to tie its 47 degree record also set in 1996.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=150&month=may&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

in 1996 we had snow during Mother's Day weekend too, 1-3 inches in the Poconos, I came home to a big heavy frost on Long Island on Monday, the 14th! 33 degree low.  1995-96 might have been our longest snow season!

 

[LibertyBell]

On 5/9/2020 at 7:12 AM, uncle W said:

when noaa switched to ASOS reporting its missed many a trace of snow...they need feet on the ground  but those days are over...there should be a video camera operating so we can go to the video tape as Warner Wolf used to say...

the ASOS also underdoes summer temps at NYC and the wind reports are laughable.

was ASOS a cost cutting measure so they dont have to pay people?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 5/9/2020 at 9:23 AM, SACRUS said:

Last weekend's oasis of warmth seemed so long ago.  Agreed on the 70s but Ill take the upper 50s/low 60s  with sun tomorrow and enjoy it :-).  I guess i brought the cooler weather when returning from a winter on the wc easter weekend.  

Did any part of our area reach 80 yet?

 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

May and Spring in general was definitely much warmer during the 80s and 90s.......

March has been the only consistently cooler spring month in recent times. The cold this year from mid April into May has been a big outlier. Seems like the usual March blocking and cold got delayed a bit this year. Could be a function of the record winter polar vortex taking longer  to break down.

1981-2019 monthly temperature trends per decade for the OKX forecast zones

Jan...+0.9°F/decade

Feb....+0.2

Mar...+0.2

Apr...+0.6

May..+0.5

Jun..+0.4

Jul...+0.7

Aug...+0.7

Sep...+1.1

Oct...+1.0

Nov...+0.1

Dec...+0.9

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March has been the only consistently cooler spring month in recent times. The cold this year from mid April into May has been a big outlier. Seems like the usual March blocking and cold got delayed a bit this year. Could be a function of the record winter polar vortex taking longer  to break down.

1981-2019 monthly temperature trends per decade for the OKX forecast zones

Jan...+0.9°F/decade

Feb....+0.2

Mar...+0.2

Apr...+0.6

May..+0.5

Jun..+0.4

Jul...+0.7

Aug...+0.7

Sep...+1.1

Oct...+1.0

Nov...+0.1

Dec...+0.9

for some reason I remember 90s occurring more frequently in April and May back then (with the exception of 2002 and 2010 of course.)

It's been like pulling teeth to get 90 at JFK before June in recent years......

 

when was the last time we had a polar vortex like this during the winter?

 

 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It will probably be warmer in the Poconos than it will be on Long Island lol.

 

Not that uncommon this time of year. It can easily be 45-50 here with raw conditions and in the 60s or even 70s there on west winds. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

for some reason I remember 90s occurring more frequently in April and May back then (with the exception of 2002 and 2010 of course.)

It's been like pulling teeth to get 90 at JFK before June in recent years......

 

when was the last time we had a polar vortex like this during the winter?

 

 

There was some impressive May heat in the 1990’s. Years like 92 and 96 also had some of the coolest summers of the decade. But we had had plenty of April May record heat since 2010.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1996	99	0
2	1992	98	0
-	1987	98	0

[Cfa]

No backdoors please, not after such a horrific April/early May. I can’t take it anymore.

62 today, but at least it’s sunny.

[uncle W]

March 7th 1990 had a low of 13 with 3" of snow on the ground...six days later on the 13th it was 85 degrees...

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Cfa said:

No backdoors please, not after such a horrific April/early May. I can’t take it anymore.

62 today, but at least it’s sunny.

That’s tough to do this time of year. Looks like 80+ for the warm spots on Friday before the backdoor on Sunday.

[uncle W]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

in 1996 we had snow during Mother's Day weekend too, 1-3 inches in the Poconos, I came home to a big heavy frost on Long Island on Monday, the 14th! 33 degree low.  1995-96 might have been our longest snow season!

 

are you sure about 1996?...

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That’s tough to do this time of year. Looks like 80+ for the warm spots on Friday before the backdoor on Sunday.

GFS really pushing that backdoor hard right over our area. Would be 3+ days of showers/clouds and temps in the low 50s starting Sunday.

Large ULL/possible subtropical system lurking nearby. 

[Rtd208]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS really pushing that backdoor hard right over our area. Would be 3+ days of showers/clouds and temps in the low 50s starting Sunday.

Large ULL/possible subtropical system lurking nearby. 

Yeah it looks like the GFS at least has gotten much wetter for the second half of the upcoming weekend into early next week.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There was some impressive May heat in the 1990’s. Years like 92 and 96 also had some of the coolest summers of the decade. But we had had plenty of April May record heat since 2010.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1996	99	0
2	1992	98	0
-	1987	98	0

The really major heat was between 2010 and 2013, now we seem to have much more rainy springs (and a lot more allergies.).  2011 was a year in which we had both extreme heat AND lots of rain- like 1983 in that respect!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

are you sure about 1996?...

snow in the Poconos after severe weather yes.  I saw a heavy frost when I got back to Long Island Monday morning after Mother's Day.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

March 7th 1990 had a low of 13 with 3" of snow on the ground...six days later on the 13th it was 85 degrees...

and back to snow in early April lol

 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS really pushing that backdoor hard right over our area. Would be 3+ days of showers/clouds and temps in the low 50s starting Sunday.

Large ULL/possible subtropical system lurking nearby. 

Euro and GFS agree on the backdoor and cool easterly for Sunday. But Monday and Tuesday depend on how far north the UL and subtropical system get. Euro is warmer for us Monday and Tuesday with the system staying suppressed. While the GFS is further north with cooler onshore flow lingering. 

[JustinRP37]

It seems like each spring now we get stuck in backdoor purgatory and I am struggling to find a reasonable explanation. Very odd spring patterns lately around here. Will be very interesting to see how ticks are this spring/summer once we can get back to our routine sampling (if we can get to that sampling). Usually after winters like this they are much lower in our experience. 

[donsutherland1]

The wind will diminish tonight. Under mainly clear skies readings will drop into the 30s outside New York City. Some frost is possible in some of the distant suburbs.

Afterward, slow moderation should commence. Nevertheless, generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 15 days of May could see readings average 4.0° to as much as 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

However, just before mid-month, the pattern will likely change bringing about warmer weather, including more frequent days where the temperature is above normal. The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal. There is growing model and ensemble support for at least one bout of much above normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +3.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.324.

On May 11, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.653 (RMM). The May 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.675.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°.

 

[SnowGoose69]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

There was some impressive May heat in the 1990’s. Years like 92 and 96 also had some of the coolest summers of the decade. But we had had plenty of April May record heat since 2010.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1996	99	0
2	1992	98	0
-	1987	98	0

1996 never hit 90 after May until like 8/25.  And it was a legit no 90 either.  I want to say LGA/JFK never hit 90 once during that stretch and EWR hit 90 maybe 1 or 2 times and it was only 90, not even 91.

[Rtd208]

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
   of the Northeast States as well as the southern Plains and Ozark
   Plateau Friday.

   ...Northeast...
   A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
   eastward from its position early Friday over Upper Great Lakes
   through the Northeast States. Surface low associated with this
   system will likely begin the period over southwestern Ontario before
   then moving quickly eastward across NY. Cold front attendant to this
   low will move eastward through the Upper OH Valley and NY/northern
   Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are
   forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively,
   resulting in a modest instability. Consequently, thunderstorm
   development is anticipated along the front during the afternoon.
   Strong mid-level flow will support fast-moving bowing line segments
   capable of damaging wind gusts. Isolated hail and a brief tornado
   are also possible.

[doncat]

38° low currently...maybe last 30's till ?

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 59.5degs., or 3.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  -5.3[54.4].           Should be -4.6[56.4] by the 21st.

43* here at 6am.           Reached 64* at 4:00pm.         Back to 54* at 5:00pm!

[SnoSki14]

Looks like an omega block pattern developing early next week on Euro/GFS. 

Both trending stronger with ULL/sub-tropical storm off coast. If true would be cool & unsettled next week. 

[qg_omega]

Wasn’t expecting to hit freezing last night, wow 

[gravitylover]

11 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

It seems like each spring now we get stuck in backdoor purgatory and I am struggling to find a reasonable explanation. Very odd spring patterns lately around here. Will be very interesting to see how ticks are this spring/summer once we can get back to our routine sampling (if we can get to that sampling). Usually after winters like this they are much lower in our experience. 

Anecdotally, from mt bikers, it's worse than recent years but I've yet to pick one up myself.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like an omega block pattern developing early next week on Euro/GFS. 

Both trending stronger with ULL/sub-tropical storm off coast. If true would be cool & unsettled next week. 

Models backing off the torch next week. More seasonable temps with some days cooler then avg.

[JakkelWx]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models backing off the torch next week. More seasonable temps with some days cooler then avg.

torches right after tho.. the general trough west ridge east pattern is still there but a trough is undercutting it bringing colder air for the time being. then its off to the races

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

torches right after tho.. the general trough west ridge east pattern is still there but a trough is undercutting it bringing colder air for the time being. then its off to the races

Either way we will have warmer temps then the last month and half. Temps in the 70’s with a day or two in the 80’s. 

[bluewave]

Euro and EPS moving to more of an extended UL pattern along the East Coast starting with the backdoor on Sunday. The big warm up that the models were showing during this period will have to wait. The strongest ridging will remain to our west. So it looks like the 80+ on Friday will be our warmest day for a while.

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