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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pushing 90 next week with that look. The 11-15 day looks toasty. From 30 degree temps to 90 degree temps in a week

I was thinking about big temp swings.  I know we have had some in the few years, but mainly in winter., but like 60 degree swings in a couple of days.  

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some years with big temperature swings in April and May...NYC

April...……...………...

1896...31 on 4/8.....90 on 4/18

1929...34 on 4/2.....89 on 4/7

1976...25 on 4/12...91 on 4/17

1977...25 on 4/9.....90 on 4/12

1991...36 on 4/3.....90 on 4/8

2002...30 on 4/7.....92 on 4/16

May...……………………….

1891...32 on 5/6.....82 on 5/9

1947...35 on 5/9.....86 on 5/13

1956...38 on 5/8.....89 on 5/13

1970...38 on 5/7.....90 on 5/9

 

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Another strong cold front moved through the region today, bringing showers, thundershowers, and even some hail to parts of the region. The air mass behind the front was sufficiently cold to bring 0.5" snow to Detroit last night.

Tomorrow morning could witness more low temperature records challenged or broken across parts of the region. Daily record low temperatures for May 12 include:

Allentown: 34°, 1963
Binghamton: 31°, 1988 and 1996
Bridgeport: 40°, 1990
Harrisburg: 36°, 1907
New York City-JFK: 43°, 1963 and 2019
New York City-LGA: 43°, 1940
New York City-NYC: 40°, 1874 and 1907
Newark: 40°, 1938
Philadelphia: 37°, 1962
White Plains: 38°, 1969 and 1990

There is a chance that New York City's low temperature could drop below 40°. Currently, May 2020, which has had 3 such days, is tied with 1874, 1891, 1923, 1947, and 1963 for the most such days in May.

Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 15 days of May could see readings average 4.0° to as much as 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

However, just before mid-month, the pattern will likely change bringing about warmer weather, including more frequent days where the temperature is above normal. The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal. There is growing model and ensemble support for at least one bout of much above normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +1.70 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.261.

On May 10, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.683 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.523.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 61degs., or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is  -4.8[54.7].          Should be about  -3.6[57.4] by the 20th.

The next 17 days are averaging between 60 and 67, or averaging the the GFS ENS and OP, 63.5---just Normal.         So we should be near  -1.9[60.1] by the 29th.

44* here at 6am.        50* by 11am.           60* by 5:00pm.

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Newark had a low of 34 on Saturday. If Newark can reach 84 degrees on Friday, then it would be a 50 degree temperature rise. The 6 day record for May was 50 degrees set back in 1996. NYC needs to reach 81 to tie its 47 degree record also set in 1996.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=150&month=may&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

DA06AEB8-9A45-45D9-BCE3-63346F73DB7A.png.34d2045fb39a6870c02ec1ea50c5006f.png

997E841E-196B-476F-BBD8-EB50D5A1E195.png.ebfb17f68c7add84a45564e88f16c370.png

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42 minutes ago, uncle W said:

in May 1970 Newark had a low of 38 on the 7th and a high of 91 on the 9th...a 53 degree rise in two days...

That was the 3 day May record for NYC. These graphs only use hourly readings. Looks like the NYC high was 93 that day between hours. So a 55 degree rise.

10FE392F-FB97-410C-9A05-4F5D8BF08A1A.png.44ee35e38dcb7fc2013fcf5fefaedb95.png

 

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like we could see more onshore influence than we thought. 

The big ridge is setting up much further west on GFS. Could be a fluke run.

We usually find a way to make a run on 90 in late May if we can verify a 588 DM ridge in the East. But there will probably be a backdoor nearby between the warm surges. Newark usually reaches 90 degrees between May 20th to 31st.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature May 20 to May 31
Missing Count
2019-05-31 90 0
2018-05-31 92 0
2017-05-31 80 0
2016-05-31 96 0
2015-05-31 91 0
2014-05-31 88 0
2013-05-31 94 0
2012-05-31 92 0
2011-05-31 92 0
2010-05-31 95 0

 

 

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44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like we could see more onshore influence than we thought. 

The big ridge is setting up much further west on GFS. Could be a fluke run.

Philly will roast & NYC will probably see a hot day and then get backdoored.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like we could see more onshore influence than we thought. 

The big ridge is setting up much further west on GFS. Could be a fluke run.

Definitely something to watch.  As of now it looks cooler than we first thought, but we'll see how things evolve into the middle of next week.

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On 5/8/2020 at 1:58 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

I recall frost on the cartops around May 20 -22 sometime in the late 80s or 90s, but it didn't seem to damage any vegetation at the time.  I wouldn't use that as a reason to wait the extra 2 weeks.

Ed, do you have any records of data from Westhampton going back to 1966 or 1967 showing that they had a freeze in early June?  And their latest 0 temp on the first day of Spring?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We usually find a way to make a run on 90 in late May if we can verify a 588 DM ridge in the East. But there will probably be a backdoor nearby between the warm surges. Newark usually reaches 90 degrees between May 20th to 31st.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature May 20 to May 31
Missing Count
2019-05-31 90 0
2018-05-31 92 0
2017-05-31 80 0
2016-05-31 96 0
2015-05-31 91 0
2014-05-31 88 0
2013-05-31 94 0
2012-05-31 92 0
2011-05-31 92 0
2010-05-31 95 0

 

 

May and Spring in general was definitely much warmer during the 80s and 90s.......

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19 hours ago, uncle W said:

some years with big temperature swings in April and May...NYC

April...……...………...

1896...31 on 4/8.....90 on 4/18

1929...34 on 4/2.....89 on 4/7

1976...25 on 4/12...91 on 4/17

1977...25 on 4/9.....90 on 4/12

1991...36 on 4/3.....90 on 4/8

2002...30 on 4/7.....92 on 4/16

May...……………………….

1891...32 on 5/6.....82 on 5/9

1947...35 on 5/9.....86 on 5/13

1956...38 on 5/8.....89 on 5/13

1970...38 on 5/7.....90 on 5/9

 

2002 was special, we went from a historically unsnowy winter to a brief shot of cold in early April, to a historic heatwave in mid April to another cold down in May to historic heat again over the summer lol.  There was snow in the Poconos in May 2002 also.

in 1990 we had a stretch of upper 80s in mid March to 1 inch of snow in early April lol....before that we had a Thanksgiving snowstorm going to a  historically cold and dry December going to a historically warm Jan/Feb

 

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