Cfa Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Quick shower, no hail, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Got small grauple or hail falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Hail here just before 5PM. Second time this spring. It actually started to cover the ground. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 47 minutes ago, dWave said: Approaching record low territory again next 2 nights? Especially LGA and JFK Record lows: 5/12 5/13 NYC 40 39 LGA 44 45 JFK 43 42 EWR 40 37 ISP 37 37 BDR 40 38 Few more days and it'll finally feel like early summer. Thank goodness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebwx Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I live 5 blocks away from there Nice, I'm working at the new hospital.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Few more days and it'll finally feel like early summer. Thank goodness. next week it might feel warmer than that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 47 minutes ago, forkyfork said: next week it might feel warmer than that Pushing 90 next week with that look. The 11-15 day looks toasty. From 30 degree temps to 90 degree temps in a week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 47 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Pushing 90 next week with that look. The 11-15 day looks toasty. From 30 degree temps to 90 degree temps in a week I was thinking about big temp swings. I know we have had some in the few years, but mainly in winter., but like 60 degree swings in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 some years with big temperature swings in April and May...NYC April...……...………... 1896...31 on 4/8.....90 on 4/18 1929...34 on 4/2.....89 on 4/7 1976...25 on 4/12...91 on 4/17 1977...25 on 4/9.....90 on 4/12 1991...36 on 4/3.....90 on 4/8 2002...30 on 4/7.....92 on 4/16 May...………………………. 1891...32 on 5/6.....82 on 5/9 1947...35 on 5/9.....86 on 5/13 1956...38 on 5/8.....89 on 5/13 1970...38 on 5/7.....90 on 5/9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Another strong cold front moved through the region today, bringing showers, thundershowers, and even some hail to parts of the region. The air mass behind the front was sufficiently cold to bring 0.5" snow to Detroit last night. Tomorrow morning could witness more low temperature records challenged or broken across parts of the region. Daily record low temperatures for May 12 include: Allentown: 34°, 1963 Binghamton: 31°, 1988 and 1996 Bridgeport: 40°, 1990 Harrisburg: 36°, 1907 New York City-JFK: 43°, 1963 and 2019 New York City-LGA: 43°, 1940 New York City-NYC: 40°, 1874 and 1907 Newark: 40°, 1938 Philadelphia: 37°, 1962 White Plains: 38°, 1969 and 1990 There is a chance that New York City's low temperature could drop below 40°. Currently, May 2020, which has had 3 such days, is tied with 1874, 1891, 1923, 1947, and 1963 for the most such days in May. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 15 days of May could see readings average 4.0° to as much as 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, just before mid-month, the pattern will likely change bringing about warmer weather, including more frequent days where the temperature is above normal. The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal. There is growing model and ensemble support for at least one bout of much above normal readings. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +1.70 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.261. On May 10, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.683 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.523. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Cold out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: next week it might feel warmer than that Perhaps though it looks the core of the warmth could be west of us. Still, 90F potential is definitely there with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Cold out Beautiful I can live with this all summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs., or 2degs. BN. Month to date is -4.8[54.7]. Should be about -3.6[57.4] by the 20th. The next 17 days are averaging between 60 and 67, or averaging the the GFS ENS and OP, 63.5---just Normal. So we should be near -1.9[60.1] by the 29th. 44* here at 6am. 50* by 11am. 60* by 5:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Newark had a low of 34 on Saturday. If Newark can reach 84 degrees on Friday, then it would be a 50 degree temperature rise. The 6 day record for May was 50 degrees set back in 1996. NYC needs to reach 81 to tie its 47 degree record also set in 1996. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=150&month=may&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Why dont you guys have a corona virus thread like the other regions!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 in May 1970 Newark had a low of 38 on the 7th and a high of 91 on the 9th...a 53 degree rise in two days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 42 minutes ago, uncle W said: in May 1970 Newark had a low of 38 on the 7th and a high of 91 on the 9th...a 53 degree rise in two days... That was the 3 day May record for NYC. These graphs only use hourly readings. Looks like the NYC high was 93 that day between hours. So a 55 degree rise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 in May 1947 at Newark the temperature went from 34 on the morning of the 10th to 85 on the 12th and 90 on the 13th...the temp dropped from 90 on the 13th to 42 the next day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Looks like we could see more onshore influence than we thought. The big ridge is setting up much further west on GFS. Could be a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like we could see more onshore influence than we thought. The big ridge is setting up much further west on GFS. Could be a fluke run. We usually find a way to make a run on 90 in late May if we can verify a 588 DM ridge in the East. But there will probably be a backdoor nearby between the warm surges. Newark usually reaches 90 degrees between May 20th to 31st. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature May 20 to May 31 Missing Count 2019-05-31 90 0 2018-05-31 92 0 2017-05-31 80 0 2016-05-31 96 0 2015-05-31 91 0 2014-05-31 88 0 2013-05-31 94 0 2012-05-31 92 0 2011-05-31 92 0 2010-05-31 95 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like we could see more onshore influence than we thought. The big ridge is setting up much further west on GFS. Could be a fluke run. Philly will roast & NYC will probably see a hot day and then get backdoored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like we could see more onshore influence than we thought. The big ridge is setting up much further west on GFS. Could be a fluke run. Definitely something to watch. As of now it looks cooler than we first thought, but we'll see how things evolve into the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 this is backdoor season and the ocean is still cold enough to drop temps in the 40's if the winds come off the ocean... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 On 5/8/2020 at 1:58 PM, NorthShoreWx said: I recall frost on the cartops around May 20 -22 sometime in the late 80s or 90s, but it didn't seem to damage any vegetation at the time. I wouldn't use that as a reason to wait the extra 2 weeks. Ed, do you have any records of data from Westhampton going back to 1966 or 1967 showing that they had a freeze in early June? And their latest 0 temp on the first day of Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 hours ago, uncle W said: this is backdoor season and the ocean is still cold enough to drop temps in the 40's if the winds come off the ocean... Still cold enough lol- I think the ocean hasn't warmed any since January haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 hours ago, uofmiami said: Philly will roast & NYC will probably see a hot day and then get backdoored. It will probably be warmer in the Poconos than it will be on Long Island lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We usually find a way to make a run on 90 in late May if we can verify a 588 DM ridge in the East. But there will probably be a backdoor nearby between the warm surges. Newark usually reaches 90 degrees between May 20th to 31st. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature May 20 to May 31 Missing Count 2019-05-31 90 0 2018-05-31 92 0 2017-05-31 80 0 2016-05-31 96 0 2015-05-31 91 0 2014-05-31 88 0 2013-05-31 94 0 2012-05-31 92 0 2011-05-31 92 0 2010-05-31 95 0 May and Spring in general was definitely much warmer during the 80s and 90s....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 19 hours ago, uncle W said: some years with big temperature swings in April and May...NYC April...……...………... 1896...31 on 4/8.....90 on 4/18 1929...34 on 4/2.....89 on 4/7 1976...25 on 4/12...91 on 4/17 1977...25 on 4/9.....90 on 4/12 1991...36 on 4/3.....90 on 4/8 2002...30 on 4/7.....92 on 4/16 May...………………………. 1891...32 on 5/6.....82 on 5/9 1947...35 on 5/9.....86 on 5/13 1956...38 on 5/8.....89 on 5/13 1970...38 on 5/7.....90 on 5/9 2002 was special, we went from a historically unsnowy winter to a brief shot of cold in early April, to a historic heatwave in mid April to another cold down in May to historic heat again over the summer lol. There was snow in the Poconos in May 2002 also. in 1990 we had a stretch of upper 80s in mid March to 1 inch of snow in early April lol....before that we had a Thanksgiving snowstorm going to a historically cold and dry December going to a historically warm Jan/Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 5 hours ago, uncle W said: in May 1947 at Newark the temperature went from 34 on the morning of the 10th to 85 on the 12th and 90 on the 13th...the temp dropped from 90 on the 13th to 42 the next day... thats Rapid City level extremes right there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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