Rtd208 Posted May 10, 2020 Author Share Posted May 10, 2020 It turned out to be a really nice day. Current temp 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 Nice recovery today, 65/39 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 Let the 80’s come! No use for 31 degree weather in the middle of May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: EPS is back to the same old theme of trending warmer from an original 240 hr forecast. That nearly 5SD block over the pole retreats back closer to Siberia. Very impressive Arctic warmth with that feature. So the SE Ridge and 80’s get more room to run north into our area. quite a pattern change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 The return of sunshine vanquished the early morning chill. As a result, a fairly large number of people came out to the local park. Three photos: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 10, 2020 Share Posted May 10, 2020 We got all this blocking over the pole because the Uber PV from the winter finally broke down. With no signs of the waters cooling in the tropical pacific it will be very important to have a weak Pv if we want a winter next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: We got all this blocking over the pole because the Uber PV from the winter finally broke down. With no signs of the waters cooling in the tropical pacific it will be very important to have a weak Pv if we want a winter next year. Well it can't get any worse than the past winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: quite a pattern change A little more ridging for us and to our southeast and we're talking near 90 potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Well it can't get any worse than the past winter. Yes, their is definitely that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Today, the temperature rebounded into the 60s after a brisk start. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of May were much cooler than normal in the Northeast. At New York City, the temperature averaged 4.5° below normal. Another cold front will move across the region tomorrow bringing showers and just a chance of a thundershower. Clouds will likely break during the afternoon. Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 15 days of May could see readings average 4.0° to as much as 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, near mid-month, the pattern will likely change bringing about warmer weather, including more frequent days where the temperature is above normal. The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +2.55 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.303. On May 9, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.517 (RMM). The May 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.406. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 2.5degs. BN. Month to date is -4.5[55.0]. Should be about -3.6[56.8] by the 19th. GFS OP is averaging 67degs., or +3.5degs. for the next 17days, and the GFS ENS is averaging 60degs. or -3.5degs. 51* here at 6am. 55* by 11am. 61* by 4:30pm. 52* by 8:00pm. 49* by 10:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 11, 2020 Author Share Posted May 11, 2020 It looks like a pretty decent area of rain is about to move into the NYC metro area according to the radar. Current temp 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Well it can't get any worse than the past winter. Well not obviously considered winter...to me , getting snow in may made it ALL worth it. Something we'll most likely (at the coast) never see again. If you were to ask me in september if id trade this winter for some may flakes..my answer? HECK YES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 just had a burst of hail with a little thunder... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Torrential hail storm for a few minutes, that was intense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Hailing here in Ossining with storms moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Hail before in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Hail here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Missed out in upper Manhattan. Dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Ooh I want hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 No hail. This is one weather phenomenon I’ve yet to actually witness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Hail in upper Manhattan with the storm over us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 that came out of no where, some briefly powerful winds and hail. Stopped but now another storm is starting up, more rain then hail this time but still a few pelting the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Quick hail shower in New Providence. Bigger cell coming down 78 behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebwx Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Nice few minutes of hail at 1:04 pm today... brooklyn ocean parkway and ave z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Cyg12 said: Quick hail shower in New Providence. Bigger cell coming down 78 behind it. had the same in springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, ebwx said: Nice few minutes of hail at 1:04 pm today... brooklyn ocean parkway and ave z. I live 5 blocks away from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Approaching record low territory again next 2 nights? Especially LGA and JFK Record lows: 5/12 5/13 NYC 40 39 LGA 44 45 JFK 43 42 EWR 40 37 ISP 37 37 BDR 40 38 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Loud thunder and hail out here in Suffolk, first time ive seen hail since ive moved here in 5 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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