SACRUS Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Unusual to get a 590 DM ridge overhead in late May without low to mid 90s. Trying to go back and see of Mays with such a persistent onshore flow. Even 2008 which i am liking this period and how it ended to, was more by way of deep trough into the east . You are right there isnt any lack of ridging in the east since May 8th. with constant troughs moving into the west coast too. Just a matter of time before the warmth spreads in from Canada :-) . Thu/ Fri look steamy with SSW flow ahead of the front. Clouds will hinder any chance those days of a stray 90 which was looking possible a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 34 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Trying to go back and see of Mays with such a persistent onshore flow. Even 2008 which i am liking this period and how it ended to, was more by way of deep trough into the east . You are right there isnt any lack of ridging in the east since May 8th. with constant troughs moving into the west coast too. Just a matter of time before the warmth spreads in from Canada :-) . Thu/ Fri look steamy with SSW flow ahead of the front. Clouds will hinder any chance those days of a stray 90 which was looking possible a few days ago. June looks to a least start out similar to recent years. Ridge and warmth building to our west with a cool trough hanging on near New England. This has been a fairly consistent June pattern since the super El Niño in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 @bluewave are the clouds supposed to burn off today? I was under the impression today would be the best of the last 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The ridge axis is pretty far north allowing more of an onshore flow for us. You can see how the warmer SW flow gets pushed up into NNE and SE Canada. 2019 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: June looks to a least start out similar to recent years. Ridge and warmth building to our west with a cool trough hanging on near New England. This has been a fairly consistent June pattern since the super El Niño in 2016. That might be amplified this year with a much larger area of cold SST anomalies. Anyone betting on early 90s will be disappointed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 25, 2020 Author Share Posted May 25, 2020 Current temp 69/DP 60/RH 74% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Currently 63 under a cloudy sky. The humidity is on the uptick, now @ 87%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That might be amplified this year with a much larger area of cold SST anomalies. Anyone betting on early 90s will be disappointed. I have no problem with that. The 90's can wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave are the clouds supposed to burn off today? I was under the impression today would be the best of the last 3 Finally getting some sun here in SW Suffolk and 63 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 72/62 here, still socked in with clouds. At least it’s warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: Finally getting some sun here in SW Suffolk and 63 degrees. Yep, just cracked open here. Today underperformed and yesterday’s outperformed expectation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 25, 2020 Author Share Posted May 25, 2020 Turned out to be a pretty nice day. Current temp 75/DP 63/RH 66% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 @forkyfork good set up for rain this week on Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 72° high here today with clouds finally clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 High of 75 here, skies fully cleared out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Beautiful day 65 and partly sunny here in Brooklyn 70s all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 The temperature rose into the upper 60s this afternoon as sunshine followed a mainly cloudy morning. It is currently horseshoe crab mating season. Below is a photo of a female horseshoe crab with a male attached to her taken at Playland Beach (Rye, NY) late this afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 even with the cooler pattern the models have under-mixed the low levels. i think friday can hit 90 if convective debris doesn't spoil it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Finally cleared here late in the afternoon. But now the fog is rolling in along the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: Finally cleared here late in the afternoon. But now the fog is rolling in along the South Shore. It was beautiful from 3 pm on. Hit 72 here. Incredible evening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Tomorrow will again see clouds yield to sunshine. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May. However, no excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days. Moreover, a fresh cool shot could arrive as May concludes and June commences. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into late May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased. The SOI was -3.58 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.151. On May 24, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.605 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.645. Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 did not make it out of the 60's again...foggy now and 57... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 next year is 11 years since the last hot summer in the 11 year hot summer cycle...if the cycle continues this year will be cooler than average...Next year is hot...the following year cooler again... the summers before the 11 year hot summer cycle were much cooler on average...the year after the hot summers were also much cooler on average...the total 90 degree days were... 1899-1910-1921-1932-1943-1954-1965-1976-1987-1998-2009 averaged 15... 90 degree days... 1900-1911-1922-1933-1944-1955-1966-1977-1988-1999-2010 averaged 26....90 degree days... 1901-1912-1923-1934-1945-1956-1967-1978-1989-2000-2011 averaged 13....90 degree days... 1922 was the only year with less 90 degree days than the year before or after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Quite foggy here along the south shore of Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 26, 2020 Author Share Posted May 26, 2020 NWS Mt.Holly ref: Wednesday thru Saturday. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly complicated medium-range forecast today, as a western Atlantic ridge will steer a weak system currently off the Florida coast northward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. This complicates the precipitation forecast Wednesday night through Friday, with the subsequent approach of a strong cold front bringing additional chances for convection through Saturday. The temperature forecast will also be problematic as a result of these systems. The 00z model suite poses an interesting set of solutions to our sensible weather Wednesday through Saturday. Perhaps the most problematic portion of the forecast is Wednesday and Thursday, as the operational models consistently depict a weak system off the Florida coast migrating slowly northward on the upstream side of a strong western Atlantic ridge into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Convection looks to accompany the weak surface reflection, as stronger instability noses northward as deep- layer southerly flow promotes warm/moist advection along the East Coast. Timing discrepancies exist amongst the model suite, with the GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF. There are also slight differences in the track of the system, and given the rather compact nature of the system`s associated lift, this track will be rather important to pinpoint for resultant QPF. Current thinking is that areas farther inland may have a better shot of precipitation, so the highest PoPs exist in these areas. Areal- average QPF, speaking of, is not particularly impressive when analyzing model solutions generally, but given the source region of the system and the high-octane air that will advect into the region (PWs approaching 2 inches by Thursday afternoon), locally heavy rainfall seems likely with the stronger convective cores. Preceding the weak Thursday system, surface flow will continue to slowly veer to a more south-southeast direction. With increasing boundary-layer dew points and a continued onshore component, would expect another round of fog and/or low clouds Wednesday night. As might be guessed, the temperature forecast is a little tricky, especially Thursday with the question marks regarding precipitation coverage. Although I expect it to be seasonably warm, the general trend was to nudge highs downward a bit. If precipitation is lacking and/or periods of reduced cloud cover occur, highs will be warmer than forecast. However, confidence is not high enough to stray much warmer than consensus at this point. Precipitation chances remain the primary concern Thursday night and Friday. The weak system on Thursday appears to lift north of the region by Thursday night, but the proximity of an approaching trough will allow several midlevel perturbations to eject northeastward in advance of the primary vort max. Scattered convection seems probable in much of the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday. Instability will likely gradually increase through the period as well, especially via diurnal diabatic heating on Friday. As such, the threat of thunderstorms looks to increase through this period, likely culminating Friday night with the approach of a strong cold front. The timing of the front is still under debate, with the GFS noticeably slower than the ECMWF/CMC. Tend to think a slower solution is more probable, owing to the strength of downstream ridging. As such, tended to keep PoPs a little bit higher than consensus on Saturday, which has ensemble support. If the slower solutions verify, Saturday would be another active convective day for portions of the region (especially the southeastern CWA). Severe storms are certainly possible on Friday and Saturday, though ambient shear appears rather weak. Thus, coverage of severe storms may be fairly sporadic/transient. Locally heavy rainfall seems probable, particularly in areas of training (slow-moving features in play), as PWs will remain rather high (1.6-2.0 inches, generally). As with Thursday, temperatures Friday and Saturday are a big question mark, with cloud cover, precipitation coverage, and frontal timing all playing roles in lowering confidence. Again, with the expectation that precipitation coverage will be sufficiently large, think that straying too far from guidance is unwise at this point. After the cold front passes through the region Saturday, temperatures will fall below seasonal averages Sunday into the following work week as a strong surface high builds into the region. Another lengthy period of dry weather looks to occur as well. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 The last 6 days are averaging 68.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -3.5[58.0]. May should end near -2.2[60.2]. GFS OP continues with its barrage of 90's (shown since mid-May in each run) during the first 11 days of June and cuts it 69/86, just like mid July. ENS does not go past 80* for the same period. 59* here at 6am(FOG<0.1 miles) 61* at 7am and variable Fog<1.0 mile. 62* at 8am and visibility almost 5 miles. 64* at 9am, haze, clouds. Still 64* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Beautiful week ahead Upper 70s all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Thursday into Saturday look very wet to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Thursday into Saturday look very wet to me Models have our first 70s dew points of the season. The clouds and heavy convection potential look like limiting factors on the the high temperatures. Would probably be an easy 90 with enough sun and +16-+17C 850 MB temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models have our first 70s dew points of the season. The clouds and heavy convection potential look like limiting factors on the the high temperatures. Would probably be an easy 90 with enough sun and +16-+17C 850 MB temperatures. High pwats? Better get those flash flood warnings ready Upton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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