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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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20 hours ago, psv88 said:

I used to go there all the time. In the winter you can stand on that rock and see pretty far. 

On a clear day you can just make out the ocean looking south down the trail, especially in winter.  I've read that in the past you could also see the sound, but the trees have obstructed that view since.

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since we had a cold pool off the coast in late May like this.

260C42D7-5109-4D99-8EDC-6828C7C7C756.gif.30a6322f390f0808ef5eb024c0af0afd.gif

 

Am surprised to see Gulf temperatures actually below normal, there was lots of comment about the Gulf being much warmer than usual. What happened?

Meanwhile, it seems 'the blob' has reappeared off Alaska, which bodes ill for the local fisheries.

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1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Am surprised to see Gulf temperatures actually below normal, there was lots of comment about the Gulf being much warmer than usual. What happened?

Meanwhile, it seems 'the blob' has reappeared off Alaska, which bodes ill for the local fisheries.

lots of cold fronts in april and early may went down to the gulf coast cooling the gulf..

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Today, parts of the region experienced periods of rain, some of which was briefly heavy. Through 9 pm rainfall amounts included:

Atlantic City: 0.55"
Bridgeport: 0.04"
Islip: 0.01"
New York City: 0.65"
Newark: 0.79"
Philadelphia: 1.08"

Tomorrow and Memorial Day should feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI has continued to experience an increased tendency for positive values during May. For the May 1-23 period, the SOI was positive on 16 (70%) days. In April, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could continue to cool.

The SOI was -4.42 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.027.

On May 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.232 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.158.

Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

 

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36 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

lots of cold fronts in april and early may went down to the gulf coast cooling the gulf..

Thank you, that is informative. Do we know whether the surface actually got cooled or was the surface warmth just mushed in with the colder water deeper down?

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The last 8 days of May are averaging 68degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.5[57.7].         May should end at  -2.1[60.3].

EURO/EPS still not liking even the 80's over the next 15 days.       GFS OP has shown the 90's somewhere in its runs for the last 3 weeks!

54* here at 6am.     53* at 6:30am.      55* at 7am.        57* by 10:00am.      60* at 11:00am.     63* at Noon.       64* at 1pm.          59* by 9pm.

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13 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I thought we had that last year?

This year the cold pool extends further south down the coast than last year. It was mostly just east of New England at this time last year. Notice how much cooler the SST’s are off the entire East Coast now. This is a function of the much cooler April and May than last year. 

This year

254739FF-0A27-49DD-BA5A-B2D0ED88C343.gif.32e89258411c4fc9d89bc745316d66bb.gif

Last year

03B4765D-5CB2-45FC-838F-D4F6EA68B1C9.gif.b604e4905d9330f49dd24650efe97a2d.gif

Difference 

5B494321-B271-4762-94D3-244A5965036C.gif.cce44c63df146cf9549b416f88332da8.gif

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Doesn't look like a water temp pattern that would promote much for tropical storm development or even movement this far north.

These SST patterns can shift very quickly since they just respond to the surface and upper air patterns. So it usually comes down to what they do as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. But in the near term, the cooler SST’s and MJO will promote more of a trough pattern over the Northeast as we start a June. So the first 90 of the season will probably be late compared to recent years.

7DE8F586-9E67-46F7-ADF8-89024AF37E1E.thumb.png.6e84ea93d1bdfdd899bc97b69173644e.png


5F6407E0-1E30-4884-BCD8-276CFD7C6C57.gif.59b06eed6ddb3e27d428e6f6d6c3aaee.gif

 

 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These SST patterns can shift very quickly since they just respond to the surface and upper air patterns. So it usually comes down to what they do as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. But in the near term, the cooler SST’s and MJO will promote more of a trough pattern over the Northeast as we start a June. So the first 90 of the season will probably be late compared to recent years.

7DE8F586-9E67-46F7-ADF8-89024AF37E1E.thumb.png.6e84ea93d1bdfdd899bc97b69173644e.png


5F6407E0-1E30-4884-BCD8-276CFD7C6C57.gif.59b06eed6ddb3e27d428e6f6d6c3aaee.gif

 

 

Sounds like mean trough will be over the NE this summer and flip back to the West just in time for winter

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37 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Doesn't look like a water temp pattern that would promote much for tropical storm development or even movement this far north.

It’s the warm anomalies east of the Bahamas that will produce. And its local weather patterns that allow for hits here. If things line up any year can cause a hit here. I have a strong feeling we at least have a brush this year.

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