bluewave Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 This cool pattern since early April really dropped the SST departures to our east. Unusual to see them colder than normal for a change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Chilly outside....feels like early April Gonna be cold for May tonight,. Mid 40s around the city, by this point in May that's around record territory. LGA record low is 45 in 2002. The rest may be just slightly out of reach, like JFK 43, EWR 42. All set in 2002. Was a particularly cold day that year, all sites are set in 2002 except for the Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -6.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.344. On May 19, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.332 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.695. Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops. At the same time, the latest EPS weeklies show the potential for a continuation of the cool pattern well into June. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: What was Central Park high temp? https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 5 hours ago, Cfa said: I’m far enough north to be warmer than the south shore and miss the sea breeze on most occasions but far enough south to be droughty for extended periods during the summer. @psv88 is only a few miles WNW of me and gets more rain, sometimes inches more. Our temps on the other hand are typically within a degree or so of each other’s. The LIE is probably a better demarcator for precipitation than it is for temperatures. First few summers I moved here I missed most of the storms, last 2 years have been non stop storms, several severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This cool pattern since early April really dropped the SST departures to our east. Unusual to see them colder than normal for a change. that pattern is associated with active hurricane seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 53 right now Loving this weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 A chilly 45F right now. Can't believe memorial day is in a few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: that pattern is associated with active hurricane seasons Maybe this will be the year that we'll be directly impacted by a true tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 44 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 39 here at 3AM. Upton is down to 31. I had to look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: 39 here at 3AM. Upton is down to 31. I had to look. ...36.5* here..good thing i covered the veggies last nite..car windshields have some frost on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs., or 1.5degs. BN. Month to date is -3.6[57.2]. Should be about -3.0[59.2] by the 29th. The last 11 days of May are averaging 63(GFS ENS) and 68(GFS OP), which average out sbout Normal. If so, May would end at -2.3[60.1]. 50* here at 6am. 55* by 9am. 56* at 10;30am. back to 55* at Noon. 64* around 6pm. 56* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 34.5 in Muttontown & 36.3 in Syosset this morning for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Dropped to 42 here overnite..............I take this kinda weather all summer long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Queue Albert Hammond - It never rains in southern California San Diego or is it Laguna Beach style weather continues. Onshore flow and temps in the upper 60s with no rain. ULL passes through Fri PM and Saturday with some unsettled showers and storms possible. Otherwise more of the same Sunday and Memorial Day perhaps a tinge warmer. The delayed warmth should get to most of the area on/around 5/28 with a warmer last weekend of the month shaping up on guidance. First shot of 90s, watch those 80s get higher / enhacned by recent dryness 5/28 - 5/30. Beyond there, longer range ECM would rebuild the ridge in the east in a more favorable location for a SW / W flow to bring some heat in early June while the GFS with cutoff city - time will tell. Will this be the 2008 style early June strong heat surge? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 You can see how Friday and most of Saturday could be cloudy as this cut off moves moves through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Heat is back on as we are days away from Memorial Day lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 The euro is pretty wet for Friday into Saturday. We actually need the rain so hopefully it happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Heat is back on as we are days away from Memorial Day lol Down to 37 here last night. More heat than AC through the first 3 weeks of the month - not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Warmer that I would have thought Location NWS ID Description Water Temperature Latitude Longitude Absecon ASCN4 Absecon COOP 55 39.4231 -74.5000 Absecon ABSN4 Absecon Ck. at Absecon 62 39.4303 -74.5206 Allenwood ALLN4 Manasquan R. nr. Allenwood 57 40.1467 -74.1222 Atlantic City ATLN4 Atlantic City 58 39.3781 -74.4228 Barnegat Light BGLN4 Barnegat Light 54 39.7631 -74.1106 Belmar BLMN4 Belmar ALERTS 56 40.1800 -74.0400 Belvidere BVDN4 Belvidere-Del Rvr 59 40.8264 -75.0825 Bivalve BVVN4 Bivalve ALERTS 58 39.2300 -75.0400 Canoe Brook DCP CHMN4 Canoe Brook DCP 60 40.7400 -74.3500 Cape May Harbor CAPN4 Cape May Harbor ALERT 55 38.9500 -74.8200 Cherry Hill CHRN4 S. Br. Pennsauken Cr. 57 39.9417 -75.0011 Extonville EXTN4 Crosswicks Cr. at Extonville 59 40.1372 -74.6000 Flatbrookville FLAN4 Flat Brook near Flatbrookville 58 41.1061 -74.9525 Frenchtown FREN4 Delaware River at Frenchtown 61 40.5261 -75.0650 Griggstown GTNN4 Millstone R. at Griggstown 64 40.4400 -74.6175 Haddonfield HDDN4 Haddonfield 59 39.9031 -75.0214 Keansburg KSBN4 Keansburg - Raritan Bay 56 40.4444 -74.1478 Kenilworth KENN4 Rahway River near Kenilworth 58 40.6731 -74.3133 Manasquan MSNN4 Watson C. at Manasquan 56 40.1117 -74.0442 Manville MNVN4 Manville 62 40.5556 -74.5828 Maplewood USGS MPLN4 E. Branch Rahway River 55 40.7350 -74.2706 Margate City MGTN4 Margate City Coop. 55 39.3300 -74.5000 Medford MEDN4 SW Br. Rancocas Ck. at Medford 62 39.8953 -74.8236 Millburn EBRN4 E. Branch Rahway River 56 40.7242 -74.3058 Millburn WBRN4 W. Branch Rahway River 60 40.7308 -74.3072 Mount Holly - Iron Work Park IWPN4 N. Br. Rancocas Cr. 60 39.9931 -74.7814 Newark DCP NWKN4 Passaic River - Newark (Tidal) 56 40.7131 -74.1231 New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 55 39.9561 -74.6278 New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 58 39.9561 -74.6278 Oak Ridge USGS ORGN4 Pequannock R. at Oak Ridge 59 41.0397 -74.5017 Pemberton PEBN4 Pemberton 61 39.9700 -74.6844 Pequest PQTN4 Pequest River at Pequest 54 40.8306 -74.9786 Pompton POMN4 Ramapo R-Dawes Hwy 66 40.9856 -74.2794 Pompton Lakes PPTN4 Pompton Lakes 65 40.9919 -74.2800 Pompton Lakes Above PLUN4 Pompton Lakes lake elevation 65 40.9925 -74.2789 Pompton Lakes-Lakeside Ave PMPN4 Ramapo R at Lakeside Ave. 64 41.0072 -74.2744 Port Mercer(Del/Rtn canal) DRCN4 Delaware and Raritan Canal 63 40.3044 -74.6853 Rahway RBRN4 Rahway - Robsinsons Branch 56 40.6056 -74.2992 Riegelsville RGLN4 Delaware R. at Riegelsville 62 40.5947 -75.1897 Sea Bright SBIN4 Sea Bright ALERTS 54 40.3700 -73.9800 Sea Isle City SICN4 Sea Isle City-Ludlam Thorofare 54 39.1578 -74.6981 Singac SIGN4 64 40.8944 -74.2661 South Dennis SDNN4 South Dennis ALERTS 55 39.1600 -74.8300 Spruce Run Res. USGS SRRN4 Spruce Run Reservoir HP-TW 58 40.6436 -74.9236 Stafford Forge STFN4 Westecunk Cr at Stafford Forge 59 39.6667 -74.3203 Stone Harbor SHBN4 Stone Harbor ALERTS 55 39.0600 -74.7700 Swedesboro SWBN4 Swedesboro - Baccoon Creek 57 39.7411 -75.2592 Trenton TTWN4 Trenton-Del R 62 40.2217 -74.7783 Tuckerton TKTN4 Tuckerton ALERT 53 39.5000 -74.3250 Tuckerton TIDE JCTN4 Jacques Cousteau Reserve Tide 55 39.5081 -74.3383 Vincentown VNCN4 Vincentown - S.Br.Rancocas Cr. 59 39.9394 -74.7639 Waretown WATN4 Waretown ALERTS 58 39.7900 -74.1800 Washington Xing DCP WASN4 Washington Crossing 62 40.2950 -74.8681 Whitesbog 4S MCDN4 McDonalds Br. in Lebanon SF 53 39.8850 -74.5053 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 May 2020 had temps in the 30's for the first time since 1978 in NYC...its just as hard to get temps into the 40's in June...the last time that happened was in 2000 when the lowest min was 49...The first week in June 1945 had temps in the 40's almost every morning...it was the worst start to June on record if you wanted heat...after mid month in 1945 it got hot and record heat ended the month... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 36 this morning...May 20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Jfk hit a new record low of 42 Amazing for May 21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: The euro is pretty wet for Friday into Saturday. We actually need the rain so hopefully it happens Could definitely use the rain. Since May 8th much of the surrounding areas have only seen around 0.1-0.2" of rain. So we're gonna end up going 2 weeks of an almost completely dry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Record lows this morning at ISP and JFK. It was the 2nd latest last freeze on record at FOK. Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2002 05-22 (2002) 32 10-15 (2002) 31 145 2016 05-20 (2016) 32 10-11 (2016) 31 143 2008 05-20 (2008) 31 10-07 (2008) 31 139 2003 05-19 (2003) 32 10-03 (2003) 29 136 2000 05-16 (2000) 30 10-09 (2000) 32 145 2013 05-15 (2013) 32 10-19 (2013) 32 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 it'll all be over soon 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 What an absolutely premium day outside. Pristine sky, light breeze, warm sun, no humidity, birds singing. Couldn't have imagined this weather looking at the forecast last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -6.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.344. On May 19, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.332 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.695. Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops. At the same time, the latest EPS weeklies show the potential for a continuation of the cool pattern well into June. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°. I thought you said summers where April and May are both cooler than normal usually feature a cooler than normal summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 19 hours ago, JoshSnow said: What was Central Park high temp? 66 degrees yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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