jm1220 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Today was gorgeous BTW. Was in Long Beach most of the day. Seabreeze and pretty sharp cool-off came in at around 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Literally from now until hr 144 of the GFS on the 0z run, the wind into NYC is from some easterly direction per EWall site, from due east to NE, and at times pretty stiff. I wonder if there's some historical way to look up wind direction at JFK or another area airport/site to see if anything compares to this disaster of a spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 60degs., or about 4degs. BN. Month to date is -3.8[56.4]. Should be about -3.9[57.6] by the 25th. 57* here at 6am. 60* by 9:30am. T is variable here between 57*-61* by Noon. 63* tops at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 We are on track for no 90 degree days this year right through Memorial Day. EPS keeps a UL over the East with strong high pressure east of New England. So it maintains a cooler easterly flow. It does briefly turn the winds SW later this week for a chance to make 80 degrees on Friday. But it looks like the 86 at Newark on the 15th will hold as the monthly high temperature for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We are on track for no 90 degree days this year right through Memorial Day. EPS keeps a UL over the East with strong high pressure east of New England. So it maintains a cooler easterly flow. It does briefly turn the winds SW later this week for a chance to make 80 degrees on Friday. But it looks like the 86 at Newark on the 15th will hold as the monthly high temperature for a while. that would probably keep temperatures below average and May has a chance of averaging below 60.0... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 6 hours ago, jm1220 said: Literally from now until hr 144 of the GFS on the 0z run, the wind into NYC is from some easterly direction per EWall site, from due east to NE, and at times pretty stiff. I wonder if there's some historical way to look up wind direction at JFK or another area airport/site to see if anything compares to this disaster of a spring. Looks dry tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Made it to 79 yesterday a nice change from the week prior with snow showers and low 40s. Another beauty out there today. Clouds holding off west of the region wit onshore flow building. Currently 61 with a NNE wind now. Still wouldnt completely write off all meaningful rain yet this week but model trends are dryer as TS Arthur has less impacts Mon/Tue. Cut off is pushed way south and west towards TN/VA area through Thu before lifting back out Fri and Sat. Think the warmup is delayed not denied as we get to Memorial Day and the following week for first shot at 90s. We'll see how it trends. I think a 2008 style switch to a very hot period is still in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 With any rain this week now looking very iffy...Been rather dry here with 1.08" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17, 2020 Author Share Posted May 17, 2020 52 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Made it to 79 yesterday a nice change from the week prior with snow showers and low 40s. Another beauty out there today. Clouds holding off west of the region wit onshore flow building. Currently 61 with a NNE wind now. Still wouldnt completely write off all meaningful rain yet this week but model trends are dryer as TS Arthur has less impacts Mon/Tue. Cut off is pushed way south and west towards TN/VA area through Thu before lifting back out Fri and Sat. Think the warmup is delayed not denied as we get to Memorial Day and the following week for first shot at 90s. We'll see how it trends. I think a 2008 style switch to a very hot period is still in the cards. If we do see any rain late week/next weekend it really doesn't look like anything substantial at least not on the GFS. Nothing like the models were once showing. But I agree its something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Just a thought but what were the past summer JJA seasons like temp wise when both April and May ended up well below normal which seems more and more likely this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 i don't mind this kind of weather.. the longer you can delay the real summer heat the better it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, doncat said: With any rain this week now looking very iffy...Been rather dry here with 1.08" so far. Tough to get much rain as long as that blocking high remains anchored near New England. Strong blocking in various locations has been the big story since April. As we can see below, models have been underestimating the blocking intensity beyond 5 days out. That’s why I won’t really believe a shift to warmer until it verifies under 120 hrs. The spring long range model warm up forecasts are the equivalent of the big snow was always 10 days away during the winter. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Up to a pleasant 65 with strong sun.But Not sure if this will be the current loop or cached but clouds slowly encroaching now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, dave0176 said: Just a thought but what were the past summer JJA seasons like temp wise when both April and May ended up well below normal which seems more and more likely this year? At EWR most recent examples lead to a cooler/wetter summer. I do need to check 1991. Not sure if we follow that trend yet. Wetter likely a good bet overall again. 2003: April: -3.1 May: -3.9 Jun: -3.2 Jul: -0.3 Aug: +1.8 1997: Super Nino April: -2.1 May: -3.6 Jun: -1.4 Jul : -05 Aug: -2.2 Sep : -1.4 1992: April: -2.7 May: -1.3 Jun: +0.2 Jul: -0.6 Aug: -0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, SACRUS said: At EWR most recent examples lead to a cooler/wetter summer. I do need to check 1991. Not sure if we follow that trend yet. Wetter likely a good bet overall again. 2003: April: -3.1 May: -3.9 Jun: -3.2 Jul: -0.3 Aug: +1.8 1997: Super Nino April: -2.1 May: -3.6 Jun: -1.4 Jul : -05 Aug: -2.2 Sep : -1.4 1992: April: -2.7 May: -1.3 Jun: +0.2 Jul: -0.6 Aug: -0.8 1991 had the warmest May on record...none of the above years were developing la nina year...May 1992 had a heat wave... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 49 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Up to a pleasant 65 with strong sun.But Not sure if this will be the current loop or cached but clouds slowly encroaching now Getting lucky with a great day, warm temps near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1991 had the warmest May on record...none of the above years were developing la nina year...May 1992 had a heat wave... Thank Unc. I meant to write 1990. 1992 was Mt pinatubo effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Really crappy for beaches though, only 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Really crappy for beaches though, only 50s The ocean is still in the low 50’s. Jones Beach N/A 52 N/A N/A SE13 N/A Wantagh N/A 57 48 72 SE13 N/A NY Harb Entrance 1750 51 54 100/ 12/ 14 1025.3 3/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1750 51 53 90/ 12/ 14 1025.3 3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: Wetter likely a good bet again Uggh. I'd be ok with a dry year for a change, the last 2 were wet enough to last me a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Uggh. I'd be ok with a dry year for a change, the last 2 were wet enough to last me a while. Super duper wet out this way...62.25" last year and 69.71" in 2018...So far this year at 15" which is a couple inches below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 At a BBQ and it is now actually cold sitting here. Temp dropped to about 55 and the winds have picked up. Terrible give me the heat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Temperatures rose well into the 60s even as sunshine was dimmed by high clouds and advancing mid-level clouds. In one community, the fun was back… In another, the litter was back… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Topped out at 70, nice to finally get a string of nice days. Breezy 65 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with readings in the lower and middle 60s. The probability of a wet week has diminished markedly in the region, as Arthur will very likely turn out to sea. Thus, moderate to significant rainfall will likely be confined to the Southeast coast and lower Middle Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was +11.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.018. On May 16, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.465 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.055. Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.6°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 I think the first 90s will have to wait till June. There's a ton of easterly flow down the pipe. I'm fine with that. The 90s could hold off till July for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the first 90s will have to wait till June. There's a ton of easterly flow down the pipe. I'm fine with that. The 90s could hold off till July for all I care. This week actually looks ok-yeah might be cloudy at times and cooler than ave-but given what it could have been I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Nobody but us knows "what it could have been", all they know is it's not really warm yet and sort of fits the melancholy mood that permeates life in the metro area at the moment. I'm good with no 90's for the whole year if you want the truth, I just don't want another wet one. Wet enough that the garden does well but dry enough to keep the skeeter population in check because there's limited standing water for them to breed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 61.5degs., or 3.5degs. BN. Month to date is -3.7[56.7]. Should be about -3.6[58.3] by the 26th. BN 2mT's, despite AN 500mb, 850mb parameters throughout 8 days-----due to those E/NE 10m winds. 56* here at 6am. 60* by 9am. 65* by Noon. 68* by 2pm. 69* by 6pm. 62* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 19 hours ago, uncle W said: 1991 had the warmest May on record...none of the above years were developing la nina year...May 1992 had a heat wave... Doesn't La Nina developing Summers usually lead to hot and dry?..ex 83,88,95 ect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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