Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Wider view of the 12z Euro rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 The potential is there. We'll see what happens. Summery day today, 85 with dews in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Current temp 86/DP 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The potential is there. We'll see what happens. Summery day today, 85 with dews in the 60s. models will struggle with the placement for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 85 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Hi was 83, seabreeze knocked us back to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 85, dew 61, partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 nice warm day does not feel to humid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 This afternoon and early evening was mostly sunny and very warm. The temperature soared into the 80s. Spring was in full bloom. People came out to the park to enjoy the refreshing sea breeze that had developed during the afternoon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 86/58 temp split today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Thunderstorms incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 16, 2020 Author Share Posted May 16, 2020 High for the day was 87 here. Current temp 81/DP 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 sitting outside on my patio in yonkers, absolutely beautiful outside, hopefully the rain holds off for another hour or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 This afternoon, the temperature soared to 84° in New York City. Despite today's warmth, the first 15 days of May saw readings average 4.0° to 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. In New York City, the temperature was 4.5° below normal. In parts of Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia & Montenegro, May record high temperatures were set today. The ingredients are coming together for a very wet week next week. The potential exists for tropical moisture to get involved. If that happens, some parts of the region could see excessive amounts of rain. The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal overall. There is some model and ensemble support for at least one bout of much above normal readings. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May. The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool. The SOI was -0.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.254. On May 14, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.959. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 5/15 Highs ACY: 86 EWR: 86 LGA: 86 BLM: 86 New Bnswk: 85 PHL: 85 NYC: 84 NYC: 84 TTN: 83 ISP: 79 JFK: 78 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 i can't find any meso models that are doing a good job. we might get decent storms in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Reached 86 today, 81 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Storms in Warren and sussex look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i can't find any meso models that are doing a good job. we might get decent storms in a few hours there's one model doing an OK job and it brings the line through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Not much lightning with this line in Vernon but winds gusted into 30s. Lights flickered. Louder roar of winds just missed me to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i can't find any meso models that are doing a good job. we might get decent storms in a few hours You sound like Anthony in the middle of winter... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Not sure if anyone pointed this out yet but the May 9 snow in NYC was the seventh month in a row dating back to last November that NYC saw at least a trace of snow during the month. This is the first time in the 150 years that records have been kept that this has occurred. Why doesn’t it surprise me that one of the all time worst snowfall seasons in recorded history would set a snowfall record, dubious as it is. And with that said I’ll see you all in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: You sound like Anthony in the middle of winter... hope sinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 GFS brings the subtropical system straight north & interacts with ULL. Looks messy. Could be gusty too with moderate coastal flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: rain. Not much rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 16, 2020 Author Share Posted May 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: Not much rain lol I could honestly see this happening. Looks like we get caught in an area of subsidence between the storm off the coast and the ULL?? This is what the GFS did for a few runs before it became wetter again. Still alot of details to iron out regarding next week. Have to see if the Euro ensembles/EPS agree but I think they will. Quite a change from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 63.5degs., or about 0.5deg. BN. Month to date is -4.5[55.6]. Should be about -3.1[58.4]by the 24th. The EURO went from 5.8" to just 0.3" for the next 10 days. The ENS was cut by 2/3rds., and is more like the GFS at 2". A 06Z GFS Jackpot here on Tues AM:??? 66* here at 6am. Still 66* at 9am. 71* by Noon. 72* by 1pm. 75* by 4pm. 63* by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Is it really going to rain 4 out of 5 days next week? Yuck... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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