bluewave Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 We get our brief warm up followed by about a week of easterly flow. Rainfall amounts will probably be determined in the short term. Looks like models are struggling with the placement of a PRE. Often happens with a subtropical or tropical systems to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Should get the rest of the spotty rain to pass through before noon and clear things up for the warmest day of the year so far for many along with the first 80s for some places who missed it on My 3rd. 5/17 - 5/22 very unsettled with cutoff meandering along in the east. Perhaps sneaking in a nice day. Summer looks to arrive in time for Memorial day weekend with perhaps some consecutive warm to hot days and the seasons first 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 14 hours ago, Rtd208 said: While plenty of uncertainty still exists with regard to next week my hunch says we will end up being much drier then what the models were originally showing. We'll see. 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: We get our brief warm up followed by about a week of easterly flow. Rainfall amounts will probably be determined in the short term. Looks like models are struggling with the placement of a PRE. Often happens with a subtropical or tropical systems to our SE. Looks like my thoughts on the models going drier for next week may wind up be wrong. The overnight Euro was pretty wet and like you mentioned we will have to see how a PRE sets up for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like my thoughts on the models going drier for next week may wind up be wrong. The overnight Euro was pretty wet and like you mentioned we will have to see how a PRE sets up for early next week. It'll be interesting to track the ULL next week with the TS off the coast. Mid Atlantic is a good bet for the heaviest but we'e not far off. Wouldnt surprise me to sneak in a nice day (maybe Wed). Looks like the ridging finally establishes itself on/around 5/23 in time for a warm Memorial Day as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Should get the rest of the spotty rain to pass through before noon and clear things up for the warmest day of the year so far for many along with the first 80s for some places who missed it on My 3rd. 5/17 - 5/22 very unsettled with cutoff meandering along in the east. Perhaps sneaking in a nice day. Summer looks to arrive in time for Memorial day weekend with perhaps some consecutive warm to hot days and the seasons first 90s. Clear skies to your north up in Orange County 64/60. Point and click forecast has a high of 84 up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Sun is breaking through now, 67, dewpoint 60. That taste of humidity is giving that warm season feel we've been missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 SPC shifted the enhanced risk area to the northwest and put our area in the slight risk Category. SPC AC 151255 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z Northeast States... Overall change from the 06Z outlook is minimal with concerns over the amplitude of boundary-layer moistening depicted in latest guidance. A shortwave trough over Lake Superior will translate east into Maine by early Saturday. Attendant mid-level speed max is progged to amplify with 500-mb flow in excess of 50 kt overspreading much of NY and northern New England by peak heating. Surface cyclone should diurnally deepen as it reaches the NY/VT border area around 21Z. Surface temperatures should warm through the 70s and low 80s south of the cyclone, ahead of an impinging cold front. While low-level moistening is underway, the bulk of guidance may be too aggressive with depiction of warm-sector dew points in the low 60s. Nevertheless, enlarged low-level hodographs should favor a few supercells developing from central NY and spreading towards southern VT/NH and western MA. Modest mid-level lapse rates will likely curtail significant severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Temps rising nicely this morning. Current temp 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 49 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like my thoughts on the models going drier for next week may wind up be wrong. The overnight Euro was pretty wet and like you mentioned we will have to see how a PRE sets up for early next week. There could be a very sharp cutoff between who gets the heaviest rains and doesn’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 temps starting to take off 70 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 73 here, humidity has creeped up since last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 77 here, already 2 degrees above forecast, hopefully my first 80. A reminder that Long Island can torch when it wants to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: 77 here, already 2 degrees above forecast, hopefully my first 80. A reminder that Long Island can torch when it wants to. 78 here, 80 is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 78 here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 31 minutes ago, psv88 said: 78 here, 80 is coming 80 here. Dews in the mid 60’s, heat index of 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Cfa said: 80 here. Dews in the mid 60’s, heat index of 82. Yep, we got 80 finally. And the clouds have moved in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Current temp 80/DP 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Pretty much the same as 17,18, and 19 Man I wish we could get out of this terrible winter summer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Euro and UKMET pretty much identical to the CanSIPS and JMA for the summer. Strongest heat over the Western US with wet and humid conditions in the East. Also notice the heavy precipitation with the IO standing wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 82 now, glorious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 So basically last summer with thunderstorms and humidity but not many heatwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 80 dew 61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 there's been a trend to kick the cutoff out faster on today's models gfes 12z vs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 @bluewave Will this summer be wetter then last summer. I mean June 19 had 5.46” and July 19 was 5.77” Aug was a bit dryer at 3.70” Itll be crazy if it’s wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, dave0176 said: @bluewave Will this summer be wetter then last summer. I mean June 19 had 5.46” and July 19 was 5.77” Aug was a bit dryer at 3.70” Itll be crazy if it’s wetter. We know that the summer dew points increased to record levels since the super El Niño in 2016. But it will be interesting to see how those seasonal model forecasts work out for this summer. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=AMW&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=65&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 57 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there's been a trend to kick the cutoff out faster on today's models gfes 12z vs 6z Alot of rain with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Half a foot of rain for parts of NJ on today's 12z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Half a foot of rain for parts of NJ on today's 12z EURO I am literally in the jackpot on this run, wow. Definitely some flooding problems if that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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