May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Eduardo said:

For the past few years, it seems like our preferred weather patterns are “fast-forwarded” by a few months, delaying springs and summers on the front end, but extending them on the back end.  What explains it?

It must be a function of our warming climate. But why it specifically manifests in this way would make a great research topic. Maybe a combination of declining Arctic sea ice, warming subtropical SST’s, warming tropical SST’s, rising land temperatures, and changing 500 mb and jet stream patterns.
 

1981-2019 monthly temperature trends per decade for the OKX forecast zones

Jan...+0.9°F/decade

Feb....+0.2

Mar...+0.2

Apr...+0.6

May..+0.5

Jun..+0.4

Jul...+0.7

Aug...+0.7

Sep...+1.1

Oct...+1.0

Nov...+0.1

Dec...+0.9

 

[uncle W]

there have been years when the summer extended and then winter...1895 had a heat wave on 9/22...highest temp of the year....March 1896 was the snowiest on record...

edit...1914 had its hottest temp of the year on 9/22...April 2nd 1915 there was 10" of snow...

[Rtd208]

Snow flurries here. Unreal.

[NJwx85]

Pouring snow here for the last ten minutes 

[CIK62]

Friend told me he had a snow shower at Ave. U/ East 30's area at 4:45pm for 10 mins.      Surface T here in CI is 46* at 5pm.

[Rtd208]

Snow shower here. Amazing.

[Amped]

There's a heavy line moving through BGM. If that holds together for 1.5 hours northeast of the city is going to get crushed.

[doncat]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Id say at this point its too early but perhaps the tendency is to lean on the cooler/wetter scenario.  I think true sustained warmth and any  heat may be towards Memorial day weekend or early June.

 

Yeah euro looks pretty wet next 10 days.

[Ericjcrash]

20 minutes ago, Amped said:

There's a heavy line moving through BGM. If that holds together for 1.5 hours northeast of the city is going to get crushed.

It was absolutely epic for January 9th....forget the fact its May 9th.

[ForestHillWx]

8 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

And not to mention the snow we saw last night as well.

And all day today. My 3.5 year old was just running around in it going nuts. Pretty surreal to see with flowers in bloom in the field next to our property. 

[donsutherland1]

A record-shattering cold air mass accompanied by rain changing to snow briefly transformed May into what should have been February. At New York City, the temperature fell to the lowest level in May since 1891.

The afternoon saw wild skirmishes between approaching summer and retreating winter as they fought it out on the battlefield of May. The afternoon featured strong winds, unseasonable wind chill, sunshine, clouds, snow showers, and snow squalls.

Record low temperatures this morning included:

Baltimore: 34° (old record: 36°, 1966 and 2017)
Binghamton: 24° (old record: 27°, 1966)
Bridgeport: 35° (old record: 37°, 1966, 1976, and 1977)
Islip: 34° (old record: 36°, 1977, 1985, and 1987)
New York City-JFK: 34° (old record: 38°, 1977)
New York City-LGA: 36° (old record: 37°, 1947)
New York City-NYC: 34° (old record: 35°, 1947)
Scranton: 29° (old record: 31°, 1966)
White Plains: 32° (old record: 33°, 1977)

Tonight, as the wind slackens, some additional record temperatures are likely.

Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will now likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 2.5° to as much as 5.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Moderation will likely commence near mid-month.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +10.44 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.267.

On May 8, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.401 (RMM). The May 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.325.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. That probability will increase markedly through mid-month as the coldest anomalies of the month take hold. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 58.5degs., or about 3.5degs. BN. 

Month to date is  -3.9[55.3].         Should be   -3.7[56.8] by the 18th.

GFS OP has a 95deg. Heatwave for Memorial Day Weekend and no rain.        ENS is just 75 or so, but also fairly dry.       Possible tropical system that breaks away from coast by Cape Hatteras just before Holiday sets stage.

Another sub-40 morning:

NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY (   89')                   LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
NYC  2am 41 21 44 240 11 18 186 3011                LO CLR  HI ???    10
     3am 40 22 48 230  9    182 3009                LO CLR  HI ???    10
     4am 40 23 50 000  6    178 3008                LO CLR  HI ???    10
     5am 39 22 50 000  6 17 175 3007                LO CLR  HI ???    10
     6am 39 22 50 000  6    179 3008                LO CLR  HI ???    10
     7am 40 22 48 220  7    188 3011                LO CLR  HI ???    10
NYC    6 temps: high=  41 at  2am low=  39 at  5am mean=  39.8   precip=  0.00

40* here at 6am.{technically 39.5* at 5:30am.}          49* already by 10am.         54* by Noon       56* at 12:30pm.      62* by 4pm.      64* at 6am.

[bluewave]

Looks like 80 or warmer by later in the week as the extreme blocking pattern relaxes. This will allow more of a SE Ridge to develop. Be interesting to see if we can sneak in a first 90 by the last week of the month. The only year since 2010 that Newark didn’t  reach 90 by the end of May was 2014. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
2019	05-26 (2019)	90	10-02 (2019)	96	128
2018	05-02 (2018)	90	09-06 (2018)	98	126
2017	05-17 (2017)	92	09-25 (2017)	90	130
2016	05-25 (2016)	91	09-23 (2016)	90	120
2015	05-25 (2015)	90	09-09 (2015)	91	106
2014	06-17 (2014)	91	09-06 (2014)	95	80
2013	05-30 (2013)	93	09-11 (2013)	96	103
2012	05-28 (2012)	91	09-07 (2012)	90	101
2011	05-30 (2011)	92	08-08 (2011)	93	69
2010	04-07 (2010)	92	09-25 (2010)	90	170

[Cfa]

Fairbanks, Alaska will be in the 80’s today.

My warmest day so far this year had a high of 75.

[SnoSki14]

Gonna go from March to June in under a week. 

If those 80+ temps are correct then we'll be switching from heat to A/C quickly.

[SACRUS]

Lows of 31 and 30 Fri night/Sat night (Sun am).  Currently mostly sunny and 51 here.  It  does look like a good area of clouds pushing in from PA, hope we can clear that up a it  as it  moves through.

May 14th tipping point to a more normal / warmer pattern.  Will need to see how stormy it gets Thu - Sun.  Sun out should yield second or first 80s for most.  Still looks potentially cut-off-ish towards early the following week 5/19.  Does look more active and with numerous troughs goig into the west coast.  So dont see a prolonged cool down or warmup staying dry...  More normal overall.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

1. The current generally cold pattern will likely conclude near mid-month. Afterward, a warmer regime with more frequent above normal readings will develop.

2. This morning, the low temperature in New York City was 39 degrees. The last time New York City had 3 consecutive low temperatures in the 30s during May was in 1947.

3. Caribou picked up a daily record 5.5" snow yesterday. The old record was 1.4", which was set in 1967. As a result, seasonal snowfall increased to 151.6", which makes winter 2019-2020 Caribou's 6th snowiest winter on record. The two-winter total is 317.0", which exceeds the previous two-winter record of 313.5", which had been set during winters 2007-08 and 2008-09. Caribou has also received 150" or more snow in two consecutive winters for the first time on record.

 

[dWave]

Temp taking off. Low of 39, now 51

[doncat]

Tied record low this am at 36°.

[Snowlover11]

i love snow, but i’ll definitely welcome the summer, bring on the warmth!

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 50 here, after dropping off to 36 overnight.

[bluewave]

Looks like Philly will have one of their latest first 80 degree days on record.

First/Last Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1984	05-20 (1984)	81	10-28 (1984)	81	160
1997	05-19 (1997)	88	10-10 (1997)	84	143
1971	05-18 (1971)	81	09-29 (1971)	80	133
1988	05-13 (1988)	81	09-28 (1988)	82	137
1975	05-12 (1975)	80	11-05 (1975)	80	176
1987	05-10 (1987)	87	09-29 (1987)	80	141

 

 

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Philly will have one of their latest first 80 degree days on record.

First/Last Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1984	05-20 (1984)	81	10-28 (1984)	81	160
1997	05-19 (1997)	88	10-10 (1997)	84	143
1971	05-18 (1971)	81	09-29 (1971)	80	133
1988	05-13 (1988)	81	09-28 (1988)	82	137
1975	05-12 (1975)	80	11-05 (1975)	80	176
1987	05-10 (1987)	87	09-29 (1987)	80	141

 

 

friday should be an easy 80 for them so 4th place

[SnoSki14]

So odd we set some weird temp/snow record either before or after a very warm winter.

I'd much rather just have a regular winter.

[uncle W]

looking back at May 1947 and May 1923 shows some similarities to this years cold spell...both had two mornings in the 30's with sleet in the area...1947 warmed up to 83 on the 13th and then it got cold again for a few days and warmed up again to 80 on the 20th...1923 warmed up later on the 26th...81 was the tops...two years I remember that started out cold the first 10 or so days in May and then had its hottest temperature of the year 10 days later...1962 99 degrees on the 19th and 1996 with 96 on the 20th.....62 was on the hot side until mid July...96 was on the cool side throughout...

[Rtd208]

The overnight low made it down to 35 here.

Current temp 60

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

So odd we set some weird temp/snow record either before or after a very warm winter.

I'd much rather just have a regular winter.

Same thing before the 11-12 winter. Also the earliest 6” snowstorm in November 2018 before a nearly snowless DJF.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
220 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2011

...RECORD OCTOBER SNOWFALL AMOUNT SET FOR CENTRAL PARK NY...

AS OF 2 PM TODAY...CENTRAL PARK RECORDED 1.3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. 
SINCE SNOWFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1869...AN INCH OF SNOWFALL HAS NEVER 
BEEN RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. THE LAST TWO TIMES THAT 
MEASURABLE SNOW FELL IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WAS...OCTOBER 21 1952 
WITH 0.5 INCHES AND OCTOBER 30 1925 WITH 0.8 INCHES. 
THEREFORE...THIS BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD FOR SNOWFALL IN OCTOBER AND 
THE MOST SNOWFALL EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
0125 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 6.4 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1 SET IN 1906.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1997-1998	0.5	0
2	1918-1919	1.1	0
3	1972-1973	2.6	0
4	1931-1932	2.7	0
5	1991-1992	3.2	0
6	2001-2002	3.5	0
7	2018-2019	3.7	0
8	2011-2012	4.5	0
9	2019-2020	4.8	0

[psv88]

Turned into a beautiful day. Sunny and 63

[forkyfork]

there will be rainy days with the front nearby but this is still mostly a warm summer pattern on the euro

[doncat]

Still looks like a couple more mornings in the 30's this week before the warm up.