May Discussion

[Torch Tiger]

cold and snow talk 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, it is interesting to see the GFS attempting similarly ... I'd still suggest modulating that for obvious reasons - one is not typically going to score a win prognosticating off a -5 or more SD anomaly being accurately assessed by any guidance beyond D5 or 6...  That said the GEFs - based teleconnectors do carry a cold signal into May - so despite the balm that's likely Sat-Monday.. oy. 

I don't think that is going to be the same as 2005 May, tho... This cold pattern appears to be fuller loaded latitude integrated/hemispheric r-wave event compared to butt-bang of lore.  It's NW territory to Georgia coastal R-wave resonance with unusually sloped flow ...but, that is requiring double stream phasing/N-stream...  2005 May was a different scenario entirely - speaking to the straw man in the room here.  That was a cut-off low over the Del Marva that kept getting new back side jet inserts that would re-deepen it and re-engineer new coastal waves that in total pulled the entire structure back west across three separate oscillations some 3 to 4 days apart.  Such that some three weeks (basically gobbled up the entire month of May that year) was plagued with nearly identical weather:  48/41  NE wind and rain sheets.   I think the ORH hills picked up some sleet and mangled noodle or two in there, but by and large, it was  crime against humanity by God- him/herself...    

This situation isn't that... it's just a raging demo of seasonal lag ... one that probably would only last 3 to 5 days anyway ... the EPS mean is probably safer. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agree with extreme violence 

Fell asleep after the first paragraph  

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, it is interesting to see the GFS attempting similarly ... I'd still suggest modulating that for obvious reasons - one is not typically going to score a win prognosticating off a -5 or more SD anomaly being accurately assessed by any guidance beyond D5 or 6...  That said the GEFs - based teleconnectors do carry a cold signal into May - so despite the balm that's likely Sat-Monday.. oy. 

I don't think that is going to be the same as 2005 May, tho... This cold pattern appears to be fuller loaded latitude integrated/hemispheric r-wave event compared to butt-bang of lore.  It's NW territory to Georgia coastal R-wave resonance with unusually sloped flow ...but, that is requiring double stream phasing/N-stream...  2005 May was a different scenario entirely - speaking to the straw man in the room here.  That was a cut-off low over the Del Marva that kept getting new back side jet inserts that would re-deepen it and re-engineer new coastal waves that in total pulled the entire structure back west across three separate oscillations some 3 to 4 days apart.  Such that some three weeks (basically gobbled up the entire month of May that year) was plagued with nearly identical weather:  48/41  NE wind and rain sheets.   I think the ORH hills picked up some sleet and mangled noodle or two in there, but by and large, it was  crime against humanity by God- him/herself...    

This situation isn't that... it's just a raging demo of seasonal lag ... one that probably would only last 3 to 5 days anyway ... the EPS mean is probably safer. 

Gotta love the 516 thicknesses over NYC for 5/10

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the 516 thicknesses over NYC for 5/10

 

Manuary

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the 516 thicknesses over NYC for 5/10

Ha, prints out 3" of snow on Long Island on May 10th... with 6-12" in parts of New England.

 

[CoastalWx]

The GFS is insane with that trough. Cranky!!!!!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Manuary

You’ll have to ask Kevin about that tradition. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Muggy out today. We wipe 

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, prints out 3" of snow on Long Island on May 10th... with 6-12" in parts of New England.

 

 

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GFS is insane with that trough. Cranky!!!!!

Cranky said the cold was going to be cut off from the CONUS after 4/20

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Cranky said the cold was going to be cut off from the CONUS after 4/20

I really wish folks would start ubiquitously gaining exposure to the cornucopia of studies formally being papered/peer-reviewed, that are frankly free now..  Baffling, but seasonal lag due to Pacific warm surplus folding over continental mean circulation eddies was floated by theoretical works in the 1990s even... 

well... here we are.  Would anyone with a modicum of cogency argue THAT up there isn't seasonal f'um lag?  It makes sense... because as May progresses into June...the continents concomitantly heat up, and that then stops the trough aspect of the Pac-ridge/continental trough coupling model.. 

It seems we deal with this more and more seasons...2013 - 217 were four weird years that may or may not offset this ...but by and large, since 2000, late season +PNAPs and cold loading have been increased in frequencing compared to the previous 200 -some odd years of climo, and...doing it on top of the CC hockey stick curve, just like was theoretically proposed. 

So, maybe no one is actually arguing this - hahaha...but still, it's to the point ( for me ) where I'm not surprised... Oh, sure - that scale and degree of 520 dm SPVs passing through Upstate NY is suprising...but the idea of delaying seasonal commitment should not be. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I really wish folks would start ubiquitously gaining exposure to the cornucopia of studies formally being papered/peer-reviewed, that are frankly free now..  Baffling, but seasonal lag due to Pacific warm surplus folding over continental mean circulation eddies was floated by theoretical works in the 1990s even... 

well... here we are.  Would anyone with a modicum of cogency argue THAT up there isn't seasonal f'um lag?  It makes sense... because as May progresses into June...the continents concomitantly heat up, and that then stops the trough aspect of the Pac-ridge/continental trough coupling model.. 

It seems we deal with this more and more seasons...2013 - 217 were four weird years that may or may not offset this ...but by and large, since 2000, late season +PNAPs and cold loading have been increased in frequencing compared to the previous 200 -some odd years of climo, and...doing it on top of the CC hockey stick curve, just like was theoretically proposed. 

So, maybe no one is actually arguing this - hahaha...but still, it's to the point ( for me ) where I'm not surprised... Oh, sure - that scale and degree of 520 dm SPVs passing through Upstate NY is suprising...but the idea of delaying seasonal commitment should not be. 

There may be something to that....I was just checking over ORH's daily record low maxes (these tend to be less sensitive to changing land use than minimums) and about 22% of them during the March/April/May months are from 2000-onward.

That is despite the period of record only being 20 years out of 125 (about 16%) and despite climate warming. We wouldn't expect 22% vs a 16% rate to be that weird in a static climate, but it definitely is a little suspicious in a warming climate. We'd expect later years to be underrepresented and instead it is the opposite. They are over-represented.

[weatherwiz]

GFS pattern ugly for big severe virtually anywhere moving forward. Guess it's a good thing I can't go to OK lol 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There may be something to that....I was just checking over ORH's daily record low maxes (these tend to be less sensitive to changing land use than minimums) and about 22% of them during the March/April/May months are from 2000-onward.

That is despite the period of record only being 20 years out of 125 (about 16%) and despite climate warming. We wouldn't expect 22% vs a 16% rate to be that weird in a static climate, but it definitely is a little suspicious in a warming climate. We'd expect later years to be underrepresented and instead it is the opposite. They are over-represented.

Precisely ...glad you picked up on the implicit idea of 'counter-intuitive'  ...

Anyway, it's long been theorized that this isn't an even march.  Some places do counter the mean overall, ...we just may be one of those over eastern N/A

There's also that bag of tricks surrounding the Atlantic ( and probably might be somewhat applicable to the Pacific too ) thermo-haline cycling and surface densification breakdown causing the suppression of the G-string ... ( that's one warming we we actually want! )  Jokes aside, I'm sure you are familiar, but with the Lab current and NW Europe getting cold when the rest of the world heats for a century ... I don't think this is that...no, but it's just along that same idea that there are offset regions/phenomenon -

[Typhoon Tip]

As an after thought for Ray - ... next year's seasonal outlook effort should go like, 

Blah blah blah blah pop-cycle headache prose ....  with perhaps a 20% increased chance for a spring cold and snow lingering into May.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

As an after thought for Ray - ... next year's seasonal outlook effort should go like, 

Blah blah blah blah pop-cycle headache prose ....  with perhaps a 20% increased chance for a spring cold and snow lingering into May.  

I figure you will get a kick out of today's daily Euro 200 hour clown show:

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I figure you will get a kick out of today's daily Euro 200 hour clown show:

 

 

Interesting immediate observation there for me is that the 850 mb is cold ... but not representing - 

Imagining if that were Feb 2, and that 500 mb would have and under riding 850mb -15 to even -20 C isotherm down Worcester latitude, so it's like negotiating with the sun - haha...

I dunno.. .I'm pretty high confident for an obnoxious cold shot into May there, ...probably a hard freeze/damage to orchard trees even... but I don't know if needs to be all that.  Hell, history happens though, too.  We'll see.   Plenty of time.

[weatherwiz]

Maybe we can get another cold pool summer like 2008 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, prints out 3" of snow on Long Island on May 10th... with 6-12" in parts of New England.

 

It will slow down by a day - Farmington's 2 biggest May snowfalls came on the 11th - 1945 and 1963. 

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro ensemble mean 540 line moves south of BOS/ORH at 96 hours and doesn't move north again until 276 hours. Over a full week in May...basically the entire 2nd week of May, not even the first week. How screwed up is that?

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The Euro ensemble mean 540 line moves south of BOS/ORH at 96 hours and doesn't move north again until 276 hours. Over a full week in May...basically the entire 2nd week of May, not even the first week. How screwed up is that?

 

Mid spring warmth. No cold in Canada. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There may be something to that....I was just checking over ORH's daily record low maxes (these tend to be less sensitive to changing land use than minimums) and about 22% of them during the March/April/May months are from 2000-onward.

That is despite the period of record only being 20 years out of 125 (about 16%) and despite climate warming. We wouldn't expect 22% vs a 16% rate to be that weird in a static climate, but it definitely is a little suspicious in a warming climate. We'd expect later years to be underrepresented and instead it is the opposite. They are over-represented.

Are you saying the record low Max’s just for those months? That’s impressive to me. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you saying the record low Max’s just for those months? That’s impressive to me. 

Yeah I think it was 22 out of 92 days. 

[CoastalWx]

Well we have had some chilly springs from the plains on East for sure since 2000. Maybe Tip’s global warming pee-pocket in the Pacific means something. 

[weatherwiz]

What a crock of crap...this is absolutely absurd...pathetic. May as well just cancel severe wx season too...I mean everything else is cancelled. How fooking ridiculous we get this pattern now INSTEAD OF WINTER when it's supposed to happen. Biggest piece of junk I've ever seen. You can't get any more crap then this. WTF is going on? 

[powderfreak]

lol

So cold for the time of year.  

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid spring warmth. No cold in Canada. 

Lol. Unreal. At least we can still pop 55-60 with -1 or -2 850s this time of year if it’s sunny, but good grief. Gonna be like pulling teeth to get a 70F in the first half of May aside from this weekend maybe. 

Where the hell was this pattern in winter? What an epic period we would have had if the last 6 weeks had happened in February/early March. 

Theres gonna be another snow threat I bet. Prob NNE but if there’s ever a pattern to try and get flakes down here in May, this would be it. 

[dendrite]

58/53 with some sun

Muggiest feel since January.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

58/53 with some sun

Muggiest feel since January.

Rain was actually warm feeling for a change.