May Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Aloft doesn’t translate to the surface anymore? Wha?

Here he is showing displacement of cold Canadian air yet in early April he said Canada was void of cold air and none would be displaced for the rest of the year. We know the rest of the story. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Aloft doesn’t translate to the surface anymore, this is the “new normal” 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It probably does presuming those 850s verify.  And it it’s really cold further up we can have chilly hailers.

500 is like -25 , that's crazy. Let's hope it fades away. I just opened the pool and was looking forward to the sustained summer weather a young man on here promised 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro very well might be overdone, but cranky is delusional if he thinks 70s would happen when 850 temps are -2C to -4C.

IF GFS verifies with 850 temps closer to +4,  you might tickle 70F in the worst torch downslope spots....and even that would be a sfc-850 lapse rate of like 11.5C/KM so you'd really need to avoid self destructing sun.

[weatherwiz]

You would think we could at least muster a solid cold pool convective event from that setup...but nope. ughhhhhh

[weathafella]

What are Cranky’s credentials?

[radarman]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

You would think we could at least muster a solid cold pool convective event from that setup...but nope. ughhhhhh

maybe can't rule out some kind of popcorn  pulsers with enough solar insolation and totally uncapped.  Big fat rain drops that so look like they want to flip to hail, but then don't.

Anyway, we can still cheer on hopes for a marginally severe line on Friday in the meantime.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What are Cranky’s credentials?

There were some that thought(think) he’s Walt Drag

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is awesome, I worked very hard for 48 years, didn't you just go back? Yesterday afternoon was sweet here

Back to the office last week, but I've been working full time from home during all of this, plus we have our own 2nd business we own that keeps me busy nights and weekends.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were some that thought(think) he’s Walt Drag

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

maybe can't rule out some kind of popcorn  pulsers with enough solar insulation and totally uncapped.  Big fat rain drops that so look like they want to flip to hail, but then don't.

Anyway, we can still cheer on hopes for a marginally severe line on Friday in the meantime.

My worry would be lack of moisture...would like to at least see dewpoints in the mid-50's. 

But for Friday...looks better perhaps for upstate NY into northern New England. Probably see an unorganized line consisting of pulse-type t'storms that are slow moving...maybe flash flooding potential? 

This really might be a garbage severe season 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, radarman said:

maybe can't rule out some kind of popcorn  pulsers with enough solar insulation and totally uncapped.  Big fat rain drops that so look like they want to flip to hail, but then don't.

Anyway, we can still cheer on hopes for a marginally severe line on Friday in the meantime.

Popcorn graupel in Junuary?

[radarman]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My worry would be lack of moisture...would like to at least see dewpoints in the mid-50's. 

But for Friday...looks better perhaps for upstate NY into northern New England. Probably see an unorganized line consisting of pulse-type t'storms that are slow moving...maybe flash flooding potential? 

This really might be a garbage severe season 

Just a gut feeling but it's a little early for fronts to be hanging up and training I think, especially with this bully airmass that'll be dropping in.  I think it'll push through a little faster than progged with an attendant wind threat.  If it does stay back we'd at least have a shot at something discrete popping out ahead during the afternoon, which we always say... For whatever it's worth.

[dendrite]

Almost totally clear at home, but totally overcast in CON. 

[Bostonseminole]

71.6/63.2

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, radarman said:

Just a gut feeling but it's a little early for fronts to be hanging up and training I think, especially with this bully airmass that'll be dropping in.  I think it'll push through a little faster than progged with an attendant wind threat.  If it does stay back we'd at least have a shot at something discrete popping out ahead during the afternoon, which we always say... For whatever it's worth.

I've had this same exact thought as well Friday when I was looking ahead to the end of the week. I was really shocked how it looked like the front would not only get hung up but perhaps even wash out. Seemed odd to have that so early in the season. But looked like there was some strong ridging just off to our east...and a bit anomalous so thought perhaps the idea was legit. Perhaps we can get a pre-frontal trough this go around...that would help nicely 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

50 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What are Cranky’s credentials?

Manopause University 

[dendrite]

The low clouds are slowly eroding away. Valleys ftl.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The low clouds are slowly eroding away. Valleys ftl.

Very cool

You can see where monadnock and Kearsarge are at the beginning of that loop (probably many others I’m not as familiar with)

[Baroclinic Zone]

58 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What are Cranky’s credentials?

Clickbaiter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

master...baiter

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

That too as people actually follow him.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Aloft doesn’t translate to the surface anymore? Wha?

Given the source the benefit of the doubt, that's may just have been a sloppy way to remind the audience that the sun offsets at this time of year ... and that CAA terms don't dictate the diurnal temperature variance as a singular forcing agent like they do alone, in January. 

And "if" that is the connotation he/she has in mind, that is true ... a minus 3, 850 mb thermal layout on a NW d-slope flow of dry unabated open sky may as well be situating everything under god's eye ... 2 inches from the immitter of an microwave oven; it will destroy any12z soundings that start days with any will 'look' that seasonally challenges ( to put it nicely...). 

But, I also want the whole deep layer circulation synoptic handling to be inside of D5 on this one.  I see some semblance there that Euro's depth is overdone... having nothing to do with Crank' methodology ... 

One, the model over plumbs troughs, and over-domes ridges over eastern NA routinely in the late mid and extended ranges. This is a personal observation that seems to not show up in the verification scores of that model, ...and I don't know why. But I am operating with a striking 100% perfect score at assessing/taking anything the Euro sells in those post day-5 ranges with a fairly large dose of Kevinism marketing strategy...  

Kidding but I do pretty much count on it over selling 'looks' in that range, and more times than not ..it normalizes a bit.  Sometimes more obvious than others...but important amounts when it crosses the day-5 (~) temporality. 

Two, not that cross-guidance support is the be-all but... I do think that when the GEFs signal at CDC is a robust heat signal heading abruptly into the first week of June, and the CPC version of that time spand is at least a modest heat signal ... (CDC+CPC)/2 = almost no support for the Euro's depth...especially not its weird attempt to set up a semi-permanent trough over NE ... so achored that NASA's probably is pre-fabricating it's monthly State Of The Climate press-release for June to be -10 SD metaphastic attack on specifically Kevin's sex life... Yeah, I'm gonna go with that being over constructed there. 

Hate to say, but the 00z GGEM is a better agreement with the GEFs teleconnectors... 

But then of course the seasonal caveat emptor of the teleconnectors from any guidance cluster is that the correlation spreads tend to break down ... particularly in the PNA -related ones, during the warm season.  And in the Euro's defense...the MJO is strengthening in Phases 7-8-1 ... it'd be a nice look in January.  I've noticed this...it seems the models don't like seasonal-physical forcing on the hemisphere. Look at the difference between the GFS's operational appeal in the extended, beteween the 00z and 06z ...it's like you turn off seasonal awareness in the "brain" of the model engine, and you get the 00z flop back to February ...06z the swich goes back on.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

Just a gut feeling but it's a little early for fronts to be hanging up and training I think, especially with this bully airmass that'll be dropping in.  I think it'll push through a little faster than progged with an attendant wind threat.  If it does stay back we'd at least have a shot at something discrete popping out ahead during the afternoon, which we always say... For whatever it's worth.

Just one Met's opinion here ... but if we're discussing the trough D5-6-7 ...my belief is that the models were too N-S in their depictions over prior versions.  The 00z cycle 'hinted' a correction necessarily beginning. I think that a trough is likely to transgress southern Can/Lakes to NE ...but I suspect it is progressive and more longitudinal in characteristic .. perhaps ultimately progressing on up and lifting the escape latitudes of the westerlies back over or even N of New England.  

I think the longer term signal is a sort of more 06 GFS operational in nature, frankly ... just because it is a better fit for the negative PNA that's trying to set up heading into the first week of June as portrayed in its one ensemble derivatives... 

The CDC has the index ( waning in/for its seasonal correlation significance as it may be ...) robustly flipping phase signs (negative), and the EPO is hugely positive...so, the Pacific/North American seasonal-lag folding pattern is being compensated for in that signal just about diametrically ... 

The CPC isn't quite as clearly discerned, but does have at least a modest heat signal to help foot ..

I'm not sure which agency is more useful, and/or if there is a seasonal usefulness, either.  The CDC uses low level wind flux anomalies for their orthogonal function analysis. Contrasting, the CPC uses the mid level geopotential height anomalies to calculate theirs. The thing is, the winds at the low levels are instructed by the latter ( ultimately..) as atmospheric physics show... so why they differ at times like this is bit of a head scratch. It may be domain-geometric ..I dunno.   Still, the blend is a warm signal...  No the Euro's meridional flow structure that also stalls indeterminately, either.  I have no idea what the EPS signaling in the PNA or NAO...but I've found that it seldom offers a much variant complexion than the operational version - oh the arrogance. 

So, with all that in mind ... I think stretching the flow... and/or somewhere between a modest to robust -PNAP is warranted and that we should see more subtropical ridging arcs in and below the mid latitudes over the North America as a correction vector.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro very well might be overdone, but cranky is delusional if he thinks 70s would happen when 850 temps are -2C to -4C.

IF GFS verifies with 850 temps closer to +4,  you might tickle 70F in the worst torch downslope spots....and even that would be a sfc-850 lapse rate of like 11.5C/KM so you'd really need to avoid self destructing sun.

That ending bold is key.. otherwise, a morning sounding of -3 C will super adiabatically get annihilated as powered by insolation; it will literally force/transform the column on the fly toward a warmer profile, during the afternoon.

I mean the misnomer is that the -3 C at 850 yielded 73 F at the surface. NO, the -3 ended up by solar heating-forced mixing to be +2, and then that ended up 73...etc..etc... 

If there's cake cu forget it

Anyway,  I've likely written more than anyone will read this morning but I personally think that whole trough is destined to modulate toward this being a moot discussion purpose anyway. It think we're going to find that it gets flattened and more progressive open structured. I don't think the Euro is going to get it's way in the latter mid and extended range with that look, either.  And all this prooobably translates to less -5 SD 850 mb cold incursion to begin with, but we'll see.  I need this one inside of 5 days to believe that.  I agree re the Euro over doing it

[TalcottWx]

Feels like 15 degrees colder in southie compared to dot

[weathafella]

Mid 70s common around Boston but Logan still low 60s with light onshore zephyr.

[Typhoon Tip]

probably see some orange-hued distant TCU lining along the Berk's 

hi res vis imagery shows some pop-corning already along the spine and that's typical in the initial post-warm frontal air mass - it's like sensy to it's own newly arrived DP/theta-e budget and the solar jolting that's going on briefly over stimulates SB CAPE... which by the way, that is some seriously unadulterated pig-eyed starlight lazing going on out there.  Thru a bermuda blue sky, too ... This is continental warm sector air, mind you.  This has gotta be Industry-shut-down clear-air attributed, because that sky is definitely vastly more purely blue than is more typical in this sort of air mass arrival in New England - if it were any more pure, we'd be on the moon!  We are the exit point of continental bio-mist-Industrial fart mix, and spanning multi-generations. (heh) skies typically have a pal blue value in this/these sort of air masses.  Interesting.

I am also noticing the 12z FOUS NAM has 850s warmer as we've come upon this air mass and are finally in it.  It's 15.5 C over Logan on a 230 deg wind, with <50% RH at LGA/ALB/BOS triangulum in the model's typical cloud heights above the 800 mb level, and nothing on sat preventing superb heating realization.  I suspect MOS busts here folks. Scott may be right about those upper 80s... I thought that was pricey but now that I see these initial conditions in situ I'm not as opposed to this over-achieving over decks and parking lots, and downtown thoroughfares where NWS cleverly puts thermometer houses - you know where civility actually lives and breaths. 

Logan's in one of those days where it heats a bit interior..mixes modest momentum down for offshore flow...then the wind flips out there late afternoon and their temp bounces I bet. Meanwhile, cross the bridge in Cambridge it's 88.7 F 

[Typhoon Tip]

actually ...said momentum may be a south wind so...heh... maybe not at Logan itsefl

[dryslot]

Down slope dandy up here, 74/60