Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Btw...did anyone else notice this? Tomorrow could be interesting in a nerdy way, between 2 and 8 pm. Both the Euro and NAM show a very deep dry slot between 850 and 500+ MB levels opening and typically when veering the winds from SSE to SW like that ( both guidance), the cloud products will over cake. So partial clearly sweeping across the area, and with LI's regionally in the -2 to +2 range. We are in May keep in mind ...and 2 to 5 pm sun may just add a touch of instability. The air could be 62/57 like with whisky towers ... strange look there a bit. Not summer or nothing but homage-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You can see the fight though ... I still maintain that the 850 mb thermal layout relaxed the cold complexion quite a bit terminating 2 or 3 days back when that last meandering cool event finally gobbled up the unusual chill plume lingering south of 40 N and whirled/terminated it out into the Maritimes. What we are left with ( unfortunately .. do to other timings) is a milder troposphere unrealized at the surface - but it is a warmer total depth. It is psychologically too easy to chastise and tenor dour when we are on the N side of an impossibly slow moving warm front today, stuck in the mid 40s and raining. But Saturday ( if you believe this NAM solution, and I do, because it matches the Euro reasonably well from 00z ) will show that warmer potential... Dawn-ish the skies are clear and mid morning d-slope dandy flow is established under 850 mbs of +2 to +3 C ... mid day being lazed by a May sun angle. 12z NAM MOS puts up 64 at KFIT but I gotta think if that synopsis plays out they should bust by four ...say 68 F. KASH ..etc... over achievers over decks, patios, front-yards and driveways - and probably 73 too if the wind were to drop off. Either way, it's not the same troposphere as last week. Sunday clouds contamination otherwise probably warmer. First time we have a shot at stringing two days of that sort of feel ... Just an op-ed perspective: My own expectations for April's are set pretty low to begin with. "...Is the cruelest month" .. for a reason It is, per my own experience, exceedingly rare to string decent days together during this cursed annual journey through seasonal lag that defines the NE climate. The seasonal lag stuff is actually being augmented further by CC too, for complex balancing reasons which we won't get into.. But, sufficed it is to say if however counter-intuitive, this present era "stage" of the warming world atmosphere means super-synoptic scaled 'tucking' over eastern north america ... and that means we have a built in butt-bone for warm enthusiasts from March 20 to June 10 every year. Doesn't mean - as usual - conditions will always suck,... but it does mean a relentless diet of Kevin installation futility posts during that time.. heh. It's like 'white men can't jump'? They can, they just have to work extra hard to do it - that's our spring. We can get balmy but it's harder. We have a long way to go before this miserable spring gets anywhere close to the rectal plaque that was May of 2005 - not even in the same apoplectic universe as that. Lastly, these cold regimed extended frames have been routinely modulated milder heading into the mid terms so I'm less impressed with digging up ensemble cold members and pretending it makes the -(SAD) 10% really unhappy to see that. ha! Yeah these calls of cold and chilly pattern of all BN and no nice wx are silly. We toss and have tossed correctly thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Absolutely but to some it wont feel hot as they say so is it actually a torch then? People confuse climo with feel like all the time. I am 100% certain if those progs and anomalies were reversed in the positive side, DIT would be talking non-stop about installing A/C lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah these calls of cold and chilly pattern of all BN and no nice wx are silly. We toss and have tossed correctly thus far Tossed correctly so far, let's see the scoreboard Morch 12, incorrect Napril incorrect turned into Apruary You said heat returns first week of May 2 weeks ago. We will score 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 While granted,, it is the FV3... where is the cold , rainy pattern? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Ya the 12z runs actually don’t look nearly as bad as they were, at least for SNE. Mostly sunny and temps around 60 most of next week. Hope that doesn’t change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Ya the 12z runs actually don’t look nearly as bad as they were, at least for SNE. Mostly sunny and temps around 60 most of next week. Hope that doesn’t change. Euro is dry and sunny all next week. Leaf outs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro is dry and sunny all next week. Leaf outs? Hard to totally buy into it yet but that certainly would get spring rolling were it to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Cranky says there's no cold left in Canada after 4/20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Yeah...I'd like to see the Euro pull off a -7 SD vortex there .... oh, wait - day 9 go wonder It's comical watching it take a cumulus cloud over southern Manitoba D5.5 and turns it into west Atlantic bomb by the end of the run. Not sure why this tendency to over-amp anything in the flow D6 to 10 isn't settling in ... yet folks keep using it to make points. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...I'd like to see the Euro pull off a -7 SD vortex there .... oh, wait - day 9 go wonder It's comical watching it take a cumulus cloud over southern Manitoba D5.5 and turns it into west Atlantic bomb by the end of the run. Not sure why this tendency to over-amp anything in the flow D6 to 10 isn't settling in ... yet folks keep using it to make points. haha. Yeah, I mean I could have waited until the ensembles come out, but that is less fun, lol. The ensembles have actually trended stronger with the anomaly in that area the past several cycles. I highly doubt the intensity of the OP verifies, but that is pretty cold stuff over Canada on the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: I mean those progs are pretty cool relative to normal.... now whether anyone's skin feels that as "cold" or "chilly" or what not is another matter. I agree a sunny -5 day can still be pretty damn nice out this time of year. I'll take sunny and 52F as a win. The tune from a few in here though would be MUCH different if that was showing +5 to +10 departures. I'm pretty sure the word "torch" would be involved in that. 70-75, +5-10'er roughly in late April/early May would be a lighter torch, nothing too heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Fish and Cranky teaming up! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fish and Cranky teaming up! Wish he would just post. He seems like he’d fit in with us well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wish he would just post. He seems like he’d fit in with us well. You track his IP? One day you’ll answer when I ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You track his IP? One day you’ll answer when I ask It’s the use of “we”... he writes like many on here post lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s the use of “we”... he writes like many on here post lol. Yeah...I have no idea if he’s on here, but the “we” post was suspicious. He probably lurks. Either that or he got the “we” thing from Kevin on twitter. He seems kinda sarcastic and pessimistic like us so it wouldn’t surprise me if he peeks in here from time to time and even gets a laugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 40.3f. stove back on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Ha, didn't know Ruth from Ozark was in a boy band. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha, didn't know Ruth from Ozark was in a boy band. I didn’t know Whiz was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Ha, didn't know Ruth from Ozark was in a boy band. I don't know f*ck about shit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, I mean I could have waited until the ensembles come out, but that is less fun, lol. The ensembles have actually trended stronger with the anomaly in that area the past several cycles. I highly doubt the intensity of the OP verifies, but that is pretty cold stuff over Canada on the ensembles. Well .. in defense of that it’s not like we’ve having trouble lowering eastern Canadian heights, either... It’s like there’s that tendency, then adding to it is reenforcing the Euro tendency. EPS day 6 + is usually tamer and more sensible. Right. I just have not seen one Euro vortex work out since like 3 upgrades ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Man, where has this video been hiding? This has to be one of the best tornadoes I've seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Man, where has this video been hiding? This has to be one of the best tornadoes I've seen. I first saw it in 2015, I was confused too. I like how near the start of it the wife has a bigger reaction to the fact they were under a tornado warning than the actual wedge right in front of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Man, where has this video been hiding? This has to be one of the best tornadoes I've seen. Ya I’ve always liked this one . Vortexva has a bunch of really good videos on his channel. Fritch Texas is a classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 .75 rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Dog shit pattern continues into May. Torture but at least it will be warmer than it’s been. Overall next couple of weeks look cool and damp. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IS HERE!!!!!! Welcome to May 1!!!!!!!!!! A HUGE milestone 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Dog shit pattern continues into May. Torture but at least it will be warmer than it’s been. Overall next couple of weeks look cool and damp. Yup, climo says it will at least be warmer misery.. should manage a few Beauties here and there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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