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May Discussion


weatherwiz
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I'm nervy about that Euro evolution,  latter day 6 through the end of day 8 with it's high pressure handling... 

That happened all last summer and the summer before, and...here we are just starting summer, and the Euro flags this attempting to do so again, right out of the gate.  

What is happening there is the big high pressure comes down, and when it ebbs ...instead of receding seaward to the SE ... it recedes E.  That retards the return flow from setting up.. so less importing continental warm conveyor into the region.  We end up with SE oceanic contamination under 850s that would otherwise support mid 80s.  

It's just an outlook...might change... but this was consummate last summer and the summer before, and seeing it in the model is annoying.  When this first showed up in the model(s) as a tendency a couple summers ago I thought it was odd because it's leaving big open space in the lower pressure pattern SW of Bermuda and the adjacent SW Atl Basin in general, but it actually started verifying. It's like there is an unusually large gap there...perhaps an expression of summer-time CC on the general circulation of the subtropics??  could be -  ...the easterlies are expanding N.  It's interesting how something like that could cause NE to be cool because of the transitive effect of anchoring high pressures from getting south of us.  I swear... this geographic region is just indeterminately cursed to stay cooler than everywhere else... 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Kevin has the hot hand. Whatever he thinks I'll plan accordingly.

Me personally.. Sell any massive back door front or forecast that has 40’s/ 50’s all weekend .  Maybe Sunday is 65-70 with sun and wind .. like today. With 70’s Monday on .. warming each day thereafter . Still amazing the folks that buy into Euro products full throttle 

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3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Oh the days of yore when i was brook fishing in the west forks on memorial weekend, We had an ongoing good laugh every year as we would wake up in the morning to see who had there eyes swelled shut from getting bit overnight in the tent.

Why would you leave your tent open

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54 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'll lock in the 18z GFS for Saturday  :)

Yeah Saturday has been getting wetter each run of the GFS. Not sure what the Euro is showing in regards to precip but the GFS has been getting wetter, albeit not that much.

Hopefully it's wrong but if not, kiss the nice weekend goodbye  :thumbsdown:

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22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You don't lol, But some always managed to get in when you went in.

Yeah when you pitch a tent some always manage to get in, that's why we use protection like a rain fly, catch any that might slip by. 

 

But anyway......dry week, we could use some rain on Saturday

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