May Discussion

[powderfreak]

Just now, J.Spin said:

If this is it for snow we’ll be at 142.1” on the season, coming in about 10% below average, so roughly in line with your anecdotal thoughts for the area.

I guess we were sort of “due” for something below average, because I just ran the numbers, and the previous three seasons prior to this one averaged 182.3”, which is a solid run.

This season has been interesting for its late season events – this is the first time we’ve had three accumulating storms in May, and the first time we’ve ever recorded more snow in May than in April.

That is absolutely nuts for snowfall in any area, and your elevation makes it crazy.  I've always thought it's awesome to have someone dedicated live inside that snow zone.  Driving through there, it always seems to be the hardest rates on  I-89 or RT 2. 

May was one of the best I can remember...nothing like 10 days of sub-0C H85 temps and multiple snow events at that point in the year.  An exclamation part on a colder-than-normal April.  16 of the last 17 days in April were below normal.

[metagraphica]

So much for the 10 days with no rain and "drought" forecasts.  Raining here as I type....  51 degrees.

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

So much for the 10 days with no rain and "drought" forecasts.  Raining here as I type....  51 degrees.

The Euro had like .02 fo you. That’s probably what these sprinkles dropped 

[Ginx snewx]

Rain

[CoastalWx]

Couple of sprinkles and that’s about it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Very light rain here overnight

[weathafella]

Dry and cloudy here....temperatures may like.

[CoastalWx]

End of the week looks great. We’ll see if we get a little onshore flow this weekend, but then next week warm again. The crap pattern is almost over. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Dry

[dendrite]

More back than bite on radar up here. Just a trace here and only a few hundredths in SW NH. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

CPC going hot and AN precip JJA so start planning your installs.

[NorEastermass128]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

End of the week looks great. We’ll see if we get a little onshore flow this weekend, but then next week warm again. The crap pattern is almost over. 

I know it’s far out, but how is the end of next week looking?  

[SnoSki14]

57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

CPC going hot and AN precip JJA so start planning your installs.

Isn't that the default forecast every summer. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is one time where Will , will be glad he was incorrect 

Mmm... to be fair and more realistic -  Will was dealt a highly anomalous augmentation to a pattern that really there was no way to foresee - that's a bit different than being 'incorrect'

Whereas you on the other hand?  Much of the time you couldn't hit a wall throwin' shit, yetstill managed to get some to stick on this particular toss - 

hahaha

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... to be fair and more realistic -  Will was dealt a highly anomalous augmentation to a pattern that really there was no way to foresee - that's a bit different than being 'incorrect'

Whereas you on the other hand?  Much of the time you couldn't hit a wall throwin' shit, yetstill managed to get some to stick on this particular toss - 

hahaha

This really hurts John

[ORH_wxman]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... to be fair and more realistic -  Will was dealt a highly anomalous augmentation to a pattern that really there was no way to foresee - that's a bit different than being 'incorrect'

Whereas you on the other hand?  Much of the time you couldn't hit a wall throwin' shit, yetstill managed to get some to stick on this particular toss - 

hahaha

He's going to win the temp contest unless the winds on Wednesday stay stronger out of the east than forecast....though not for the reasons in our original discussion. He had thought we'd remain progressive and clear out on west flow by Thursday while I suspected the cutoff was going to take it's time and keep us under east flow.....the reality is that this got shoved so far south that we get sunshine to the north of the crap.

I'm happy to lose that contest though...I'd take 64F and sunny on northeast flow over the alternative any day.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

59 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Isn't that the default forecast every summer. 

Yea. There’s not much to forecasting summer. Broadbrush AN across the national map and you’ll look like a genius. 

[J.Spin]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That is absolutely nuts for snowfall in any area, and your elevation makes it crazy.  I've always thought it's awesome to have someone dedicated live inside that snow zone.  Driving through there, it always seems to be the hardest rates on I-89 or RT 2. 

Yeah, when thinking in terms of elevation, there’s a phrase people use to describe the snowfall around here:

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This really hurts John

Perfect !  ...my plan is complete -

[dendrite]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That is absolutely nuts for snowfall in any area, and your elevation makes it crazy.  I've always thought it's awesome to have someone dedicated live inside that snow zone.  Driving through there, it always seems to be the hardest rates on  I-89 or RT 2. 

May was one of the best I can remember...nothing like 10 days of sub-0C H85 temps and multiple snow events at that point in the year.  An exclamation part on a colder-than-normal April.  16 of the last 17 days in April were below normal.

On the flip side, it’d be interesting to find which higher elevations do relatively worst with snowfall. Out here you probably need to be downwind of the Whites with NE flow with no westerly upslope. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah ... I'm with Will ... better off this way because his being "wrong" about the temperatures means we're in a relative ( though still shit-eating) win scenario with only cooler than normal but lots of sun. 

Although interestingly NAM MOS has bounced to 71 at KFIT on this 12z run, as early as tomorrow (Tue) afternoon here in the interior.  What's interesting is that Wed is now cooler despite even more synoptic metrics indicating unabated blazing solstice sun.  My guess is that 64 gets squeezed closer to 70 too ...

This almost never happens?   You have to appreciate the rarity of getting near utopia ( west of I-95/ ... I-495!) weather out of any suggestion at all, when in antecedent middle range ever even hints gelid misery in New England, in spring. Given absolute least excuse imagined... any suggestion for so much as shade in mid/ext range modeling at this time far more likely results in pan-dimensional, red- eyed straight-jacket apoplexy.   

But this... ?  four days ago we bathed in Labrador death mist as a 2005 micro-redux ... then, having it go to what is modeled now.? It almost feels verboten - like we're going to be punished for such insolent expectation.  I don't think has happened, ever.  Models don't break wrongly beautiful over this region of the planetary/atmospheric realm - fascinating.    Beyond today, this week's sensible weather may as well be a 1 in 500 year return rate oddity, and achievement that will go completely unheralded and unnoticed.

tongue-in-cheek

[HoarfrostHubb]

It sort of feels like the reverse of that big modelled snowy period that fizzled back in... January? Weenies were sucking on tailpipes by the dozen

To have a complete shitshow of modelling flip into a decent stretch is maybe our payback?

[dendrite]

GFS is trying for the happy ending torch here today. Only 61F right now, but we're clearing N to S.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is trying for the happy ending torch here today. Only 61F right now, but we're clearing N to S.

I was just noticing that same vis imagery/looping showing the clearing is really accelerating S .. May actually make it here to Rt poop before sundown...  and also, ahead of the definitive line now entering the latitudes of CNE proper...there are thin regions in NE Mass/S NH...  

Those temps in Mass are too cool though 

 

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DC also had a terrible winter

Atlanta got more snow than NYC , DC and Philly combined.

I knew winter  was going to be bad when the December storm busted for my area.

Central Park recorded 4.8" (all in Dec,Jan) - I had not heard of Atlanta getting much.
 

Philly had .3" on the season.

About what our snow-loving grandkids saw 25 miles SSE from PHL  Only time they saw white ground for more than a few minutes was when they visited us over Thanksgiving.

Finished with 85.1", 94% of average, as springtime snow kept it from ratter status.  31% of snowfall came after the equinox, and only 06-07 had a higher %, thanks to the record-crushing April.  00-01 had more spring snowfall but had already passed 100" by 3/21.  This was my only snow season in which the 2 biggest events came in springtime.

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is trying for the happy ending torch here today. Only 61F right now, but we're clearing N to S.

Best day of the spring so far!

67F at noon with a dew of 37F.... bright blue skies, not a cloud in sight. 

Two days ago the forecast was for categorical rain.

Edit: Now 70F.  This was going to be the worst day of the week.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

On the flip side, it’d be interesting to find which higher elevations do relatively worst with snowfall. Out here you probably need to be downwind of the Whites with NE flow with no westerly upslope. 

That would be an interesting game... like find that poor 1,800ft elevation that seems to get relatively shafted for that high el.  

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That would be an interesting game... like find that poor 1,800ft elevation that seems to get relatively shafted for that high el.  

There has got to be someplace that gets shadowed by the Whites that sucks, relatively.  We know places like Whitefield and Lancaster are relative snowholes but that is in town.  The higher elevations are decent I believe.

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

There has got to be someplace that gets shadowed by the Whites that sucks, relatively.  We know places like Whitefield and Lancaster are relative snowholes but that is in town.  The higher elevations are decent I believe.

What are the averages for Whitefield and Lancaster?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Best day of the spring so far!

67F at noon with a dew of 37F.... bright blue skies, not a cloud in sight. 

Two days ago the forecast was for categorical rain.

Edit: Now 70F.  This was going to be the worst day of the week.

I mean I'm sorta baffled at this thing's failure to do what every system between March 15 and June 15 has done since Pangaea broke apart... One does not ever see hints of catastrophic cool misery on the guidance and end up with utopia anywhere in this god-forsaken geography. 

Seriously tho, if one pays attention to the isohypses, we actually never even really get into any influence from that deeper tropospheric ordeal that lodges into the TV ... And by the time it could, it's just a TUTT really that's not even closing a contour as a dent.. .

The GGEM and GFS operational both have a pretty spectacular BD signature for Saturday now...Not sure if this was present on prior runs but I'm just noticing it now either way.  I gotta figure, we miss this thing as verboten and then pay dearly with with 48 F PSM air fisting bums while it's +12 C at 850 that afternoon - mm hmm..