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May Discussion


weatherwiz
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From a broader perspective the Euro's is objectively not as bad as all that.. however, this situations leans one's attention too closely into the discrete variations, run-to-run (I wonder...) and that might be effecting opinions. As far as the tropical aspects ... the Euro ( I have personally noticed ) is not a good performer over any Basin on earth, below the 30th parallel, when it comes to purely warm core/barotropic entities.  So I compartmentalize that as typical there, and don't let that effect my own judgement on how it may or may not be handling the current shit with the mid latitudes.

This cut-off has ginormous sensitivity-related matters.  So 300 or 400 km adjustments, W-E, N-S in the 'where' it situates means the difference between 52 F and wet, versus 72 and late May lazing sun very sharply evaporating the edges ... a behavior typical of mid to late spring. It's like CON, NH is 71 F embarrassingly busting MOS, while it is 47 F and raining over Tolland.   

Anyway, ...by the time the Euro's echo swirl opens up and rejoin the flow.. any gradient it was initially triggering were both too far S, and weakening ( to mention, the higher pressure from the N attenuates), such that it is just a humid transport for New England.  That's the gist of what that's showing. 

Either way, ...I suspect Monday/Tuesday are a cool anomalies, regardless of whether GFS wins in making them particularly wet.  Even without the cut-off, there is a huge BD-esque surge of +PP pressing down out of eastern Ontario. That thing would make it cool whether that cut-off misery organized or not. So, try not to focus on the low too much ... It's going to be chilly for a day or two.. A robust surface ridging pressing down from eastern Canada sets up as easterly wind anomaly straight across/from as source of air modulated by the super warm soothing Labrador Current ... yaay! 

The only way around that is to have that N-stream/confluence up there be wrong too... not really related to the low. So bag Monday and Tuesday as annoyingly cooler than normal ...

 

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