weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We PRE? You know...you were totally right a few months back when you said the severe weenies posting severe graphics were just as bad as the snow maps. Now we're starting to see convective forecasts be completely blown out of the water and every setup could be "big". Folks trying to use the potential hazard type box on the sHARPpy soundings, UD helicity plots, and STP plots to say there is big potential for severe. ahhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 That looks more like forcing from the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: You know...you were totally right a few months back when you said the severe weenies posting severe graphics were just as bad as the snow maps. Now we're starting to see convective forecasts be completely blown out of the water and every setup could be "big". Folks trying to use the potential hazard type box on the sHARPpy soundings, UD helicity plots, and STP plots to say there is big potential for severe. ahhhhhhh Wiz 18 hrs ahead is all I look at for severe. I would chase in SVT, find a mountain top open area with a wide vista and fold shelf clouds and maybe a wall cloud. You can't count how many times well intentioned Mets have posted 36 to 48 he NAM maps and immediately started talking about the severe threat only to have it poof 30 hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That looks more like forcing from the warm front. Your boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wiz 18 hrs ahead is all I look at for severe. I would chase in SVT, find a mountain top open area with a wide vista and fold shelf clouds and maybe a wall cloud. You can't count how many times well intentioned Mets have posted 36 to 48 he NAM maps and immediately started talking about the severe threat only to have it poof 30 hrs later It really just boggles my mind...is the art of weather forecasting becoming just lazy now? I understand using a specific graphic to illustrate a point...but that should be it...too illustrate, not make a claim. For example, these UD helicity maps are getting tossed around left and right and the tone of it is "tornado potential exists here" "watch for tornadoes"...sure, yeah that may be true...but there is alot more it then that. I mean when it comes to today I've seen/heard people referencing 5/15/18...b/c it's the same date...that's just irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your boss LOL nothing to do with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That looks more like forcing from the warm front. There's no pwat connection on the ecmwf for that time. Interesting though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It really just boggles my mind...is the art of weather forecasting becoming just lazy now? I understand using a specific graphic to illustrate a point...but that should be it...too illustrate, not make a claim. For example, these UD helicity maps are getting tossed around left and right and the tone of it is "tornado potential exists here" "watch for tornadoes"...sure, yeah that may be true...but there is alot more it then that. I mean when it comes to today I've seen/heard people referencing 5/15/18...b/c it's the same date...that's just irresponsible. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is it’s not all week of rhea. But lots of onshore flow will limit temps and clouds will flirt with southern areas. Especially south of rt 190 in CT. Yeah agree in general. I was just noticing a glaringly obvious ensemble difference(s) across the board. In all three, Euro, GFS and GGEM, their respective ensemble means are vastly different than these individual synoptic handling of that D4 to 7 time frame. You didn't ask but this is for the general reader .. Firstly, we only spend time discussing this piece of shit cut-off nuance that bears absolutely 0 significance to any of our lives, because we collectively suffer a weather-obsession psychosis and are compelled to do so... At least being aware of that, saves one from utter damnation in the hells of insanity. Ha! Secondly, what I suspect - upon carefully evaluating each operational version - is that they are phasing the D3 weak-wave mechanics that initially turns the corner around the Lakes (~) and dives south near Ohio, with what appears to be convective feed-back over-zealous wave propagation out of Texas or thereabouts. The Euro waits to do this infusion near the Mid Atlantic ( and it should be noted...no prior operational runs of these three even attempted this entire scenario), whereas the GFS does so earlier around the western TV region. The GGEM does the same ...where ever in the hell it says it happens, it's doing that weird phasing with what might be faux wave space out of TX just like the other two. The ensemble means, don't do this. As a result, this thing dumps in and fills much faster, as well...the ridge spills over top by mid week with a much different forcing on the weather types and surface features et all by as early as Wednesday. In fact, by late Thursday the EPS has a vestigial wave smear shredding to oblivion SE of the MA in the west Atlantic, while the operational is still whirling -2.5 SD torque menace over the Delmarva ... mm... yeah, that's a vast outlier - too much stress on believability. Thirdly, this is all an operational model continuity break and synoptic forecasting 101 should automatically consider this suspect - which I do... because that wave coming out of TX idea...heh... I think that is getting overly developed and is causing the more sensitive physical processing of the operational versions to then have to favorable wave interference with it. We'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Dew summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Gfs cancelled next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs cancelled next week. Is it too late to overseed my lawn? LOL. 5 straight days of clouds and damp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Mmm.. give the GGEM credit for collapsing into its own ensemble mean. I expended a goodly dose of wasted energy writing a post this mornign explaining how the operational runs et al were so disparate relative to their ensemble means - this GGEM run fits it mean now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 segways into heat wave set up at 500 mb, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Tons of rain next week woo hoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tons of rain next week woo hoo Do you have a soul? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Do you have a soul? Yes, it resides in a cold dark cave high up on a NNE mountain where snow lasts till June and max summer temps hit 65F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Do you have a soul? Lol fugly heat wave we are getting, instead of the promised Sonoran heat release we are getting a monsoon release Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Yes, it resides in a cold dark cave high up on a NNE mountain where snow lasts till June and max summer temps hit 65F. I don't get it. I see Mitch got a ton of loam delivered today....I may just go and have him bury me in it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Yes, it resides in a cold dark cave high up on a NNE mountain where snow lasts till June and max summer temps hit 65F. I just had a memory pop up of a small patch of snow we found hiking Furnace State park in Danielson Ct May 15th 2011 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Do you have a soul? A cold one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yes, it resides in a cold dark cave high up on a NNE mountain where snow lasts till June and max summer temps hit 65F. I would do just about anything for that! Where my grandfather lived in southern Quebec there was a mountain we climbed mount pinnacle and one spot always had snow in june Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Euro fringes the pike with rain. Soaker for srn CT and esp NJ. Overall a jump north from 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Tippy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Euro is basically Atlantic diarrhea the entire week for SNE. Maybe we get lucky Friday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 47 and heavy rain on my wife's birthday Tuesday. Great.. 3-9" of rain for the NYC metro over the course of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: I would do just about anything for that! Where my grandfather lived in southern Quebec there was a mountain we climbed mount pinnacle and one spot always had snow in june Was it Pinacle or Pinnacle? The double N is closer to BTV whereas the single N is closer to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 This is May 05? Ryan’s new forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Summahhh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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