Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

May Discussion


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I put numbers down. Can you and Will do the same?

56, 60

I actually think models show Thursday as worse than Wednesday right now because the low redevelops to the south and hits us with Atlantic rhea on Thursday...if that happens, then it's 48-50F on Thu....but I'll hedge a little in case we end up more progressive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Officially  a resident  of belchertown!! Should do a little better in the snowfall department I think.. just happy to get out of the valley a little bit :) being further north might help in some storms

Don't get your hopes up too high LOL

welcome

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We've got windows and doors open and its in the 50s.  The sunshine feels so nice, ha.

Full summer mode. Music blaring on the deck, chillaxin ,tanning the nape. Might even crack a IPA with lunch just to salute Kev on his great call for today being the best day of the next 7, he said that right?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Quick recovery from 27F to mid/upper 50s now.  

Lets get 60F+!

35 to 70 so far here...  

This was well advertised this huge diurnal potential... 

And it's a late high scenario too ( not totally synoptically driven).  We have light west wind down here ( prolly there too...) and over both locations the 850s are warming over the course of the afternoon by dry advection..  -1C at dawn is +5 by 7pm so we probably tickle our maxes say ...5: 5:30ish...  I'm guessin 72 to 73 here.  

I was hoping to put up a 40 spot on the delta but ...heh, may have to settle for 37    ...pretty big

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could see it going to solid spring by Wednesday "IF" one is dumb enough to go with the 12z GFS' operational rendition - 

Thing is... the model's placing that U/A low it cuts off all over the map from run to run.  Now, it has it way stuck down in the TV by Tuesday, with a huge push of "BD" ( in quotes because I'm not really sure what to call that weird pressure pattern/synoptics the GFS is doing...) high pressure walling down from the N - so aggressive on this run that it actually places the breadth of NE et al bodily inside the surface ridging so far that the wind cuts to nill by Wednesday afternoon, when you have solstice sun unabated to the surface under 850s' around +3 to +4 C... Granted, that configuration probably doesn't mix that tall but ... it's still enough to argue 68 F under hot sun and light wind.  That's not early summer, no...but it's a vast vast improvement over the chiding tenor - it's a nice week beyond a couple of climo rotters.  Big deal..

But again...not sure this is the go-with solution either -lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GGEM not having very good continuity either .. 

These cut-off lows are always a beyotch for the models, and the peregrinations of the GFS and this one really showing that over the past few runs.  The GGEM not only parks the U/A low in the TV, it's really so far away that we end up building heights back over 582 dm over NE and the upper MA... In fact, that looks warm by Thursday with 560 dam thickness and 850s up to +12C if it were not for the cold ocean lurking there, Kevin looks like Will and Scott's daddy -

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GGEM not having very good continuity either .. 

These cut-off lows are always a beyotch for the models, and the peregrinations of the GFS and this one really showing that over the past few runs.  The GGEM not only parks the U/A low in the TV, it's really so far away that we end up building heights back over 582 dm over NE and the upper MA... In fact, that looks warm by Thursday with 560 dam thickness and 850s up to +12C if it were not for the cold ocean lurking there, Kevin looks like Will and Scott's daddy -

Yeah Kevin will definitely win the temp contest if the ULL gets so far south that we're in sunshine on the cool side of the gradient. Not sure I buy it though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Kevin will definitely win the temp contest if the ULL gets so far south that we're in sunshine on the cool side of the gradient. Not sure I buy it though.

lol me neither ... 

that kid's like a Meteorologist Forest Gump equivalent

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro sucks Mon and Tuesday. Much better later Wed on. 

Not sure where this trend ends... 

I was brow-raising when I noticed how similar the Euro looked to this recent GGEM solution as it is ... in that order no less heh.   Anyway, if these models were just a little weaker and/or turn that south moving it into that TV settling position just a little bit earlier on, we don't even get into the rain like that "FV3" - I guess that must be the new GFS experimental ? 

Anyway, the Euro has a very warm day in the interior next Thursday with +13C at 850 rising during the day and wind veering around to the SW like you said.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure where this trend ends... 

I was brow-raising when I noticed how similar the Euro looked to this recent GGEM solution as it is ... in that order no less heh.   Anyway, if these models were just a little weaker and/or turn that south moving it into that TV settling position just a little bit earlier on, we don't even get into the rain like that "FV3" - I guess that must be the new GFS experimental ? 

Anyway, the Euro has a very warm day in the interior next Thursday with +13C at 850 rising during the day and wind veering around to the SW like you said.  

It lifts back north which I think is inevitable. So we may sacrifice a day from that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure where this trend ends... 

I was brow-raising when I noticed how similar the Euro looked to this recent GGEM solution as it is ... in that order no less heh.   Anyway, if these models were just a little weaker and/or turn that south moving it into that TV settling position just a little bit earlier on, we don't even get into the rain like that "FV3" - I guess that must be the new GFS experimental ? 

Anyway, the Euro has a very warm day in the interior next Thursday with +13C at 850 rising during the day and wind veering around to the SW like you said.  

Starting to wonder if other than Monday whole week is sunny and 70 inland . That’s where things headed today 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Starting to wonder if other than Monday whole week is sunny and 70 inland . That’s where things headed today 

yeah...jokes aside ultimate solution with that thing is ...  excruciatingly tedious and nerdy of us to even be following but - lol - appears to be flux.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

35 to 70 so far here...  

This was well advertised this huge diurnal potential... 

And it's a late high scenario too ( not totally synoptically driven).  We have light west wind down here ( prolly there too...) and over both locations the 850s are warming over the course of the afternoon by dry advection..  -1C at dawn is +5 by 7pm so we probably tickle our maxes say ...5: 5:30ish...  I'm guessin 72 to 73 here.  

I was hoping to put up a 40 spot on the delta but ...heh, may have to settle for 37    ...pretty big

Heh, might have to settle here too.  

27F to 65F so far, not sure we can squeak that extra couple degrees with some high cirrus coming in.  

I definitely have a little high diurnal range fetish ha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...