Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey I didn't forecast rain or snow, the models did forecast rain, but you definitely forecasted a heat wave When you post models and start complaining how bad the weather will be next week, shoot me etc.. and don’t mention any other possible outcomes .. that’s a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Here it is mid May and I've only mowed my lawn (front only) once in Lowell and I likely won't have to in NH until June. Trees as bare as the top of Kevin's head. Was April colder than May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Terry Eliasen (@TerryWBZ) Tweeted: It's still a ways out but next week is starting to look pretty gross https://t.co/Xsjt0J3YZv https://twitter.com/TerryWBZ/status/1260653484354859008?s=20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 From Jeremy Reiner on FB Windiest April and first half of May since 1996 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: When you post models and start complaining how bad the weather will be next week, shoot me etc.. and don’t mention any other possible outcomes .. that’s a forecast I complained? You are getting your posters mixed up. No models have a different outcome ,do I make one up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: From Jeremy Reiner on FB Windiest April and first half of May since 1996 Anyone know why the there’s a downward trend here over the last 70 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I complained? You are getting your posters mixed up. No models have a different outcome ,do I make one up? The DIT forecasting system... 80% personally desired weather and 20% model reality. If every model shows snow for days and days, go with it. Rain for days and days, toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Anyone know why the there’s a downward trend here over the last 70 years? Nice catch. Would be curious to hear the locals thoughts on that. Site changes? "Seemed a lot windier when I was a kid...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Anyone know why the there’s a downward trend here over the last 70 years? Probably measuring differences in different eras. You had all human obs before the mid 90s and at some point near then there was a transition from cup anemometers to the ultrasonic. There was a clear dropoff there when ASOS/METAR took over in 1996. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Averaging 18+mph at Boston for a month and a half seems insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. I've viewed a lot of old SA obs from the 1950s. It varies by site, but many would put out 1hrly or 3hrly obs with sustained wind values that were rounded like 34015KT, 33020KT etc. The bigger wind speeds often lacked gust reports as well. I remember seeing a lot of Nov 50 obs that were like 07050KT with no gust speeds. So I've always took those old wind readings with a grain of salt. weathafella era yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I've viewed a lot of old SA obs from the 1950s. It varies by site, but many would put out 1hrly or 3hrly obs with sustained wind values that were rounded like 34015KT, 33020KT etc. The bigger wind speeds often lacked gust reports as well. I remember seeing a lot of Nov 50 obs that were like 07050KT with no gust speeds. So I've always took those old wind readings with a grain of salt. weathafella era yore. Yeah the 1950s wind data specifically looks pretty weird. Even 1960s to some extent. Just a WAG but I wonder if they high-balled wind data a little bit back in that era before jumbo jets...the commercial airplanes back then were definitely more susceptible to wind than the jumbos that started coming out circa late 1960s and 1970s. So from a safety standpoint, you could argue being more conservative and rounding up on the winds. It might be totally unrelated too but I often think about that stuff because the weather observers back then were really important to the airports before radar and other technology had come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Is our 70's out of the question for Saturday now? looks like mid 60's? and next week looks lame.. rain Mon/tues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It definitely looks like there is a step-down in the mid/late-1990s around when ASOS was installed. I wonder if that has anything to do with it. It doesn’t explain the drop between the 1950s to 1990s but those post-ASOS years are pretty low. The 50s wind records in NL are also super high. I've suspected measurement error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Warmer NAM run tonight. Full warm sector intrusion Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 33, 32F in town we wilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Yea enjoy this today and the weekend cuz this sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Weekend maybe meh up here too. Today may be my best day of the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Officially a resident of belchertown!! Should do a little better in the snowfall department I think.. just happy to get out of the valley a little bit being further north might help in some storms 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea enjoy this today and the weekend cuz this sucks I'm not good with charts which three days are the heat wave? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Where is The Wiz? HREF pretty bullish on updraft helocity (good proxy for rotating storms) across western-central MA into CT. Given strong wind fields aloft (fast moving storms) and sufficient SB instability main concern will be for damaging winds with stronger storms. Also with wave traversing the stalled warm frontal boundary Sig Tor parameter climbs to 2 across the CT river valley as low level flow backs. All these parameters suggest a low risk of an isolated TOR. So as of now the greatest risk for strong to severe storms is across western- central MA into CT where greatest instability will overlap strongest shear. Window for storms appears 20z-03z from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Low of 30.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 28.2F. Back to back freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 29.8 this morning, hopefully this is the last freeze until October.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Officially a resident of belchertown!! Should do a little better in the snowfall department I think.. just happy to get out of the valley a little bit being further north might help in some storms Welcome to Belcher-tucky! And yes you will, especially if you're closer to the Quabbin Hills or around rt 21. The difference can be amazing. Can't tell you how many times driving home from ZooMass where it is raining and we have snow. For example, the early December storm last year when Amherst got 14" over two days we got an extra foot plus (17" came the second night when Amherst got 5-6"). I almost shat myself when I woke up that second morning and turned on the porch light. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Is Belchertown’s twin city Fartertown? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 It was formally known as Cold Spring until a politician with an ego came in. I don't mind the zip code though, 01007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Is Belchertown’s twin city Fartertown? Burpsville. Back up to 39 after a low of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Low of 40 here. Had a bit of a breeze. Now we on our way to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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