Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Screen doors slamming shut in Tolland? Saturday’s 75 and sunny in CT. No door here . Even up there you’ll be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Did you already have the sideburns by then? (reference to the pic of you in December 1970 hugging the snowman) Things were just starting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Not sure that's a BD anyway ... Looking at NAM synopsis I'm seeing a close surface PP low that scoots out to sea in the morning and leaves everyone, top NE down to the south coast with N/NW flow. Which, honestly, if that happens that moisture/ceiling coverage probably busts too pessimistic and with 850s still in the +4 C and downsloping, it may bust warmer than MOS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure that's a BD anyway ... Looking at NAM synopsis I'm seeing a close surface PP low that scoots out to sea in the morning and leaves everyone, top NE down to the south coast with N/NW flow. Which, honestly, if that happens that moisture/ceiling coverage probably busts too pessimistic and with 850s still in the +4 C and downsloping, it may bust warmer than MOS too. It’s NAm doing dumb nam things at 84 hours. Saturday’s a beaut. Tanning, pools, whatever folks want to do . I’ll be staining the deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s NAm doing dumb nam things at 84 hours. Saturday’s a beaut. Tanning, pools, whatever folks want to do . I’ll be staining the deck Mm.. no, that's not it either - it's not either NAM or bust pool weather. ha - dude The GFS and the GGEM and the Euro ...and the Brazilian, and the Martians all show a closed surface low on a warm front that collapses S behind the low kink on the boundary, as a cold fropa, Friday night when the low passes by.. . It's a discussion question that relates to the flow behind said low merely being NE on the immediate coast ( perhaps ..) but probably N/NW in the interior. But, again...suspect the 850 RH is too high in backside NVA and downslope flow so... it may not be a bad day. When I think of a BDs slamming screen doors and whipping flags, I think of 82 F and 10 minutes later it's 63 and heading for 47, with shrouds of 900 foot torn strata filling in the skies. That's a dramatic picture, but... having a low pressure with rain/thunder in the early A.M. depart with a low and having the region defaulted into a synoptic back side circulation isn't really a boundary slicing SW through the region in the traditional sense. That's all... But, if you wanna swim in a pool in that weather and get blue lips ... by all means - ...staining one's deck would probably work either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 NAM is probably in left field, but it has NE sfc flow all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 I know Tip is really hoping the GFS verifies next week...maybe some catpaws or noodles early Wednesday morning with 534 thicknesses on the departing backside CCB under the ULL? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: NAM is probably in left field, but it has NE sfc flow all afternoon. I dunno - in synoptics ... hundreds of years ago when dinosaurs roamed... BDs were generated because of a v-max scooting into the Maritimes N/NE of Maine, and the backside NVA up that way piles up surface density and then mass-continuity requirements sends it rollin' on SW under the environmental flow that is more westerly down here. That's the gist of what we learned. This thing early Friday has that vmax, but what skews the definition/description above, is that surface low is already south of you and probably Kevin too, by Saturday morning, and heading seaward... Such that the whole region is in a synoptic wind field coming around the western side of the low (N). If the NAM is NE that's more ageostrophic compared to its own pressure pattern so agreed there. So, yes and no I suppose... More typically ... it's in the 70s or something, and then the front intrudes and girls get purple thighs and stand with there arms crossed at bus stops in downtown Boston as one of these wicked witch of the north farts wafts thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno - in synoptic ... hundreds of years ago when dinosaurs roamed... BDs generated because of a v-max scooting into the Maritimes N/NE of Maine, and the backside NVA up that way piles up surface density and then continuity requirements has it rollin' SW under the environmental flow. That's the gist of what we learned. This thing early Friday has that vmax, but what skews the definition/description above, is that surface low already being south of you and probably Kevin too, by Saturday morning, and heading seaward... The region is in synoptic wind field coming around the western side. So, yes and no I suppose... More typically ... it's in the 70s or something, and then the front intrudes and girls get purple thighs and stand with there arms crossed at bus stops in downtown Boston as one of these wicked witch of the north farts wafts thru. You're looking way more into it than me. I'll admit I'm just being lazy right now and looping the sfc streamlines, low level RH, and 2m temps and not looking at the synoptics behind it all. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_12z/etaloop.html It's the d3 NAM so it's synoptically challenged to begin with. I just wanted to see DIT squirm a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I know Tip is really hoping the GFS verifies next week...maybe some catpaws or noodles early Wednesday morning with 534 thicknesses on the departing backside CCB under the ULL? LOL... Frankly, I like it for another reason having to do with vindication - sort of... This is a greatest example of seasonal lag around the Pacific pee puddle ( thanks Scott!!) we've seen since the odd, deep -spring frequency shift in snow occurrence that began after the super nino of 1998. And the more this happens, the more it draws attention to the notion that this may be related to climate change ...which I personally believe.. That all said, the GFS and the GEFs are both showing that cut-off as being more progressive during the week now. I suspect we are at the onset of that become more a west-east trough but will take a few runs to modulate more coherently so. In the meantime, this/that run is like a happenstance of numerical timing...where a little more progression aligned the wave spacing to unlikely phase with the N stream... I mean 3 or so degrees of latitude and timing and that interaciton can't happen out there ... Plus, the NAO is really not supporting that look - but may as well keep that tele-c out of it as it's pretty miserably handled as a general modeling rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: You're looking way more into it than me. I'll admit I'm just being lazy right now and looping the sfc streamlines, low level RH, and 2m temps and not looking at the synoptics behind it all. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_12z/etaloop.html It's the d3 NAM so it's synoptically challenged to begin with. I just wanted to see DIT squirm a little. Can you ping me next time that agenda's both in play ... but routinely necessary ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 And just like that the euro has onshore garbage for Saturday for ENE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 80s over the weekend? That’s drunk unless you’re in Atlanta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 If that D4 Euro pans out off the SE U.S. we gotta give the operational GFS credit... It obviously was off with details along the way ...but it most certainly was depicting a cyclone closure with a warm or tepid -phased core developing in that vicinity, days before the other guidance. Now the Euro has a pretty clearly looking hybrid vortex there. interesting. Admittedly I thought we were just looking at typical GFS day-dreams on those older runs but heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Know what'd be funny ? ...is if that feature developed and got captured by the ULL settling in and then foisted into New England... no one woulda saw that coming - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Know what'd be funny ? ...is if that feature developed and got captured by the ULL settling in and then foisted into New England... no one woulda saw that coming - Congrats!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 For now I'm thinkin' it's all bs... GFS run ...this Euro...all of them. The GFS is unstable showing now progressive continuity shift - which means, there's plausibility this speeds up more, and like I said...could be a prelude to this just morhing more into a west-east propagating wave. Meanwhile, the Euro deepens troughs and balloons ridges, too much beyond D4 as a general rule ... and this deeper complexion/look it has could easily be shaved off 6 or 10 dm and atone for that bias... So in effect, we are being dealt bullcrap for multiple reasons - pick your miss-direction. we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Shoot me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For now I'm thinkin' it's all bs... GFS run ...this Euro...all of them. The GFS is unstable showing now progressive continuity shift - which means, there's plausibility this speeds up more, and like I said...could be a prelude to this just morhing more into a west-east propagating wave. Meanwhile, the Euro deepens troughs and balloons ridges, too much beyond D4 as a general rule ... and this deeper complexion/look it has could easily be shaved off 6 or 10 dm and atone for that bias... So in effect, we are being dealt bullcrap for multiple reasons - pick your miss-direction. we'll see Agreed. All these forecasts here of cold rains for a week and snows etc. All silly and tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shoot me. Time play everyone's favorite game in spring.... Wheel!!!!!!! Oh!!!!!!!!!......... RHEAAAA!!!!!!!! 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 I will not install. I will not swim in the pool I will be a wicked smahhhhht weenie and instead seed my lawn as Will has decreed it so it shall be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Agreed. All these forecasts here of cold rains for a week and snows etc. All silly and tossed Missed the mention of snow,link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Missed the mention of snow,link? I made a joke post to Tip about the D7 GFS showing noodles or catpaws at the tail end of the cutoff. See it on previous page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Shuttle bus from Billerica and Tolland to the Tobin Bridge departs in 2 days 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 So much for the end of the cold and wind and clouds....welcome to Iceland!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Time play everyone's favorite game in spring.... Wheel!!!!!!! Oh!!!!!!!!!......... RHEAAAA!!!!!!!! Some epic onshore fetch. That will leave a mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I made a joke post to Tip about the D7 GFS showing noodles or catpaws at the tail end of the cutoff. See it on previous page Oh no heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Whineminster said: So much for the end of the cold and wind and clouds....welcome to Iceland!!! Do not buy into these forecasts. After Tuesday this whole thing sinks south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Man this is brutal. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 I mean, at this point, would a week long cut off really surprise anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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