May Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Normally I hate the heat and humidity until July.   This year bring it on

Yeah everyone wants it. The older we get the more we want it. 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah everyone wants it. The older we get the more we want it. 

It’s like lube for old bones. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The 00z Euro was pretty darn hot from the western Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic in that day 8-9-10 range.  

Of all synoptic metrics in the atmosphere, warm air is the most fragile.  Day 4 of the Euro features a weak S/W ular formed bend in the isohypses up over Idaho ?  It then takes that feature east across the NP ...Lake --> through day 7.  Then, typical for this model at that time range and trajectory, somewhere it finds the mechanical wherewithal to deepen it substantially. That suspicious spontaneity then conveniently engineers a cool back 850 mb plume timed through New England.  I don't argue 'a feature'/S/W moving through; I question the Euro's amplitude - seeing as it appears borrowed.. 

It's not a huge deal though... In fact, the cool back is more like a 'dent back.'  In old school Met parlance we referred to that as a "pacific" cold source but it's really a misnomer, as all that means is any cool source that doesn't have a delivery from higher to lower latitude.  And then we'll see if that heat in the farther extended is for real/where. 

I see this all the time .. particularly in springs that are butt banged.  When the pattern finally relents, there's a kind of slosh back climate correction ...where a ridge balloons and rattles some SW ejected plateau heat for a couple days.   The big dome back three years ago in early July was that.  And then the rest of the summer couldn't get hot to save it's ass.  Oh, it was sack-sticker humid but but heat and tall ridges were muted.  I wonder if this is just predictable climo ...where we'll get a week of dome and then settle back into a NW trajectory drought summer with big heat after big heat ejection shunted S to Virginia ... Then, this deepens in October, snows in November... before Global warming/HC expansion mechanics on a hemispheric scale then f's up all seasonal forecasts for next winter with speed shearing and unrelenting gradient...rinse repeat for the next 20 years...  

[kdxken]

Enough we're good.

http://www.mwra.state.ma.us/monthly/watersupplystatus.htm

[radarman]

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Enough we're good.

http://www.mwra.state.ma.us/monthly/watersupplystatus.htm

The spillway has been ripping pretty good the last few weeks.  Can hear it from a good ways across the dam.  Not quite as much water coming over as early last April, but certainly a torrent in its own right.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 00z Euro was pretty darn hot from the western Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic in that day 8-9-10 range.  

Of all synoptic metrics in the atmosphere, warm air is the most fragile.  Day 4 of the Euro features a weak S/W ular formed bend in the isohypses up over Idaho ?  It then takes that feature east across the NP ...Lake --> through day 7.  Then, typical for this model at that time range and trajectory, somewhere it finds the mechanical wherewithal to deepen it substantially. That suspicious spontaneity then conveniently engineers a cool back 850 mb plume timed through New England.  I don't argue 'a feature'/S/W moving through; I question the Euro's amplitude - seeing as it appears borrowed.. 

It's not a huge deal though... In fact, the cool back is more like a 'dent back.'  In old school Met parlance we referred to that as a "pacific" cold source but it's really a misnomer, as all that means is any cool source that doesn't have a delivery from higher to lower latitude.  And then we'll see if that heat in the farther extended is for real/where. 

I see this all the time .. particularly in springs that are butt banged.  When the pattern finally relents, there's a kind of slosh back climate correction ...where a ridge balloons and rattles some SW ejected plateau heat for a couple days.   The big dome back three years ago in early July was that.  And then the rest of the summer couldn't get hot to save it's ass.  Oh, it was sack-sticker humid but but heat and tall ridges were muted.  I wonder if this is just predictable climo ...where we'll get a week of dome and then settle back into a NW trajectory drought summer with big heat after big heat ejection shunted S to Virginia ... Then, this deepens in October, snows in November... before Global warming/HC expansion mechanics on a hemispheric scale then f's up all seasonal forecasts for next winter with speed shearing and unrelenting gradient...rinse repeat for the next 20 years...  

It’s called a mild down . That’s the technical name for it

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s called a mild down . That’s the technical name for it

Whatever one wants to call it ... I'm in Scott's camp - the pattern's changed. 

When it does scale back after tomorrow, when/if/or BDs and/or 'flies in the ointment' etc .. we're not talking about flurries and packing pellet virga exploded CU's ...it's just pleasant.  In other words, we escape the madness - and today btw sucks donkey balls.  I hate these -10 to -15 day-high douche days of wind and pancake.  go f it'self. I don't know what it is... I almost care less about the sun and more about the temp not being a big lubed up rape-dong at this time of year.  It's just sapping of will - ugh

Warm frontal two-step may throw clouds and showers around off-and-on as regardless of all..boundary perhaps sets up and oscillates prior to that bigger ridge ( if it happens...) later next week but have to take that day-by-day

[PowderBeard]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

The spillway has been ripping pretty good the last few weeks.  Can hear it from a good ways across the dam.  Not quite as much water coming over as early last April, but certainly a torrent in its own right.

Last year was pretty amazing for levels, could drive the boat just about anywhere without concern. Water was as high as the horseshoe damns at Gate 31 and 43. 

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whatever one wants to call it ... I'm in Scott's camp - the pattern's changed. 

When it does scale back after tomorrow, when/if/or BDs and/or 'flies in the ointment' etc .. we're not talking about flurries and packing pellet virga exploded CU's ...it's just pleasant.  In other words, we escape the madness - and today btw sucks donkey balls.  I hate these -10 to -15 day-high douche days of wind and pancake.  go f it'self. I don't know what it is... I almost care less about the sun and more about the temp not being a big lubed up rape-dong at this time of year.  It's just sapping of will - ugh

Warm frontal two-step may throw clouds and showers around off-and-on as regardless of all..boundary perhaps sets up and oscillates prior to that bigger ridge ( if it happens...) later next week but have to take that day-by-day

Today blows . At least suns out but wind and 52 blows. Can’t wait for 85 and dews next week 

[wxeyeNH]

1230pm  Sunny 43.7F  wind 9 gusting to 26mph.    Another winter type day in NNE   

[dendrite]

It’s over Thursday. We’ll wake up to frost in the lower els and then everyone rockets up during the day. It’s all up and up from there. 

[wxeyeNH]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It’s over Thursday. We’ll wake up to frost in the lower els and then everyone rockets up during the day. It’s all up and up from there. 

Yes,  other than a few 60 plus days for me and one 73F day it has seemed very late winter like.  Couple more days and then finally spring

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

1230pm  Sunny 43.7F  wind 9 gusting to 26mph.    Another winter type day in NNE   

12:45pm and still looks like winter in the higher terrain. 

1,400ft and still 4” of snow caked to the trees.  Just another May day in NNE. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s over Thursday. We’ll wake up to frost in the lower els and then everyone rockets up during the day. It’s all up and up from there. 

Until the wheel-o-rhea arrives a week or two later and camps over us for Memorial Day weekend.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Until the wheel-o-rhea arrives a week or two later and camps over us for Memorial Day weekend.

Wish we had the middle finger emoji to respond to posts like these. 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Until the wheel-o-rhea arrives a week or two later and camps over us for Memorial Day weekend.

At least I’m familiar with modern rhea. This yore rhea I’m not adapted to. 

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s over Thursday. We’ll wake up to frost in the lower els and then everyone rockets up during the day. It’s all up and up from there. 

Yeah but then the GFS starts engineering nor-easters ... It's got a nor'easter out of a 500 mb impulse it has driving straight south along the eastern seaboard - I mean, how does it do that lol. Is it on purpose?  

I'd say there's chance that's all faux -reasons for thread stalkers to pounce on optimism pending more support -

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whatever one wants to call it ... I'm in Scott's camp - the pattern's changed. 

When it does scale back after tomorrow, when/if/or BDs and/or 'flies in the ointment' etc .. we're not talking about flurries and packing pellet virga exploded CU's ...it's just pleasant.  In other words, we escape the madness - and today btw sucks donkey balls.  I hate these -10 to -15 day-high douche days of wind and pancake.  go f it'self. I don't know what it is... I almost care less about the sun and more about the temp not being a big lubed up rape-dong at this time of year.  It's just sapping of will - ugh

Warm frontal two-step may throw clouds and showers around off-and-on as regardless of all..boundary perhaps sets up and oscillates prior to that bigger ridge ( if it happens...) later next week but have to take that day-by-day

fascinating

[Typhoon Tip]

all winter, the models corrected everything NW .... now, they corrects SE ... so perfectly 100% wrongly relative to preference.  Nice. 

It's an odd look though.  The GFS and GGEM seem to be reacting to an expulsion of deeper tropospheric heat from the SW into/within that 2nd ridge amplitude ... It's goosing it... dumping that warmth into that it balloons, shortens the wavelengths, and that feeds back on/gives the 'manufacturing' look to that trough back east.   Not sure that whole thing is right - maybe

[CoastalWx]

Lots of rhea next week on GEFS 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

fascinating

to 10% of the society ...I can imagine 

[CoastalWx]

At some point PF either laughs or cries. Maybe when his wife leaves him for a pool boy in Clearwater. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

12:45pm and still looks like winter in the higher terrain. 

1,400ft and still 4” of snow caked to the trees.  Just another May day in NNE. 

Snowing in The County right now. These are the days when I'm glad I live farther south.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup...yet again ... according to NASA, April rings in with North America and/or a significant aspect of that region ( and/or close enough that we can sensibly feel it here...) colder than the most everywhere else...  It's really rather remarkable - since 1998's termination of the last ENSO event ( that had any meaning to the atmosphere, by the way...) Global warming insidiously hides and conveniently enables cold trolls in weather-related social media ... haha.  Kidding aside, this was predicted by primitive climate models back in the 1990s ... 

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro doesn't curl the wave lengths so much ...such that the D5 wave gets more progressive.  Weird, the GFS and Euro are both playing opposite their own biases there... 

The previous GFS runs were more similar to this, though were also not as amped with the ridge building in next week. The Euro's been handling this pattern transition exceptionally well since it first came into vision back 8 days ago ... I'm inclined to back away from the GFS' as it was clearly engineered by Trumpian plants that are attempting to hide global warming by having model runs erode warmth and numb storms whenever it can - 

haha

[Whineminster]

Another march like day out there today.  Sucks.  Windy, clouds zipping by, and cold. 

We've literally had the same weather since October.....kinda ridiculous. 

[Cold Miser]

...Do we know how many days over the past 8 weeks or so have had significant breezes or wind?  It seems like it has been windy forever .

Yes, forever.  Enough of the f.ucking wind.

Thanks in advance.

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Another march like day out there today.  Sucks.  Windy, clouds zipping by, and cold. 

We've literally had the same weather since October.....kinda ridiculous. 

Yeah the ASOS up here has had a high of 45F under full sunshine in May.  That’s a cold air mass to be in the 40s below 1,000ft with full sun this time of year.   Dew points of 15F, lol.

Bucks the trend of all the folks that say well if the sun is out in May it’s in the 60s.  

[Angus]

 

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, Angus said:

 

Ha, for the record I am not going up there as Uphill Travel is currently closed (though not enforced) and they know that.  There are still some Mtn Ops folks out and about and we also have some spies in the area.  I am happy that after over a decade reporting snow on the mountain they regard anything with my stamp of approval as accurate.  I've built up that trust.

Anyway, it looked pretty damn caked on the hill this afternoon.

 

Beautiful day to go for a weenie drive.