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May Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Not the start to May I was hoping for. Just praying and hoping that as the pattern does change we'll see a solid severe threat with it. 

May is always a marginal month for severe and the pattern starting next week will put a lid on severe threats. 

Don't think things will change much until late May or June. 

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On 4/28/2020 at 10:11 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. The rubber band just isn’t snapping back and forth in our favor. We need a Pickles big booty milf to shake things up for us. 

I get the humor ...  but you know, there is a kind of 'emergence tendency' ?  

It's a bit abstract as a concept, but the 'gestalt' : the synergistic product that cannot really be defined by individual component analysis, but when they operate together, you get winning or losing streaks.  

In either streak, the contribution seems to be unchanging, yet for some reason, the results flop positive or negative ... notwithstanding observation biases and all that rigor - 

We've been in losing streak for cold and snow enthusiasts, period.  We've had leading indicators that just flat out failed.  And, some of the indicators themselves also failed - which makes it 'uniquely failing' - it's as though insidious like some agency is attempting to deliberately lead down primrose paths only to prove deceptive - haha. 

Seriously though, we've had times in our lives when the opposite for cold and snow enthusiasm ...where we couldn't lose.  Every perturbation physically identifiable upstream in the hemisphere's greater circulation eddy just found a way to delay office and school openings.  We don't question the success times with quite the same zeal, I can imagine.  Interesting. 

But, this is also interesting to me because I feel we've been getting stolen summers too?   This has gone on since 2015's big February of lore and fact.  We had a big historic heat dome two summers ago that frankly didn't verify anywhere close to what was modeled - 95/76 is nothing to shake a stick at but... 103/67 it was not.  Maybe the DP/theta-e increases associated with CC and storing > WV absorbed some of the heat... who knows...But, every other heat chance has been less than that, and/or failing to materialize to the point of modeled...  And there is some truth to the behavior - regardless of cause - where dimmed summers relay into early cool snaps that can't seem to parlay into winter proper.   I was discussing this 'seasonal lag' effect with Mets unaffiliated with this social media and there is an agreed sentiment... the expanding HC may be why winters are being odd... Where in the summer, there is lingering tendencies to hold more ridging in the NE Pac and that is causing a counter mass balanced tendency over eastern N/A ( spread out in the longer term mean ) to lower heights just enough to keep us out of contention as a 'hot-spot' in the on-going month-to-month 'state of the climate' releases by NASA and forth.  We are above normal more than not, just 'not as' much so as our synergistic result of these seasonal lag effects - supposition but it's rooted theoretically. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd rather 103/67 vs 95/76.    :lol:  

Yeah that event was horribly handled by the GFS of the time.  There's been a upgrade since ... 

Recall, it was trying to flag 111 F, 2-meter temperature(s) at Bedford Mass ...run after run, but with DPs of just 60 F...      So, 111/60 ...  Pheonix in Boston? No problem - 

That version of the GFS of that time was a particularly egregious embarrassment by NOAA... It almost seemed more than figuratively as though they just f'ed up and left out the lower level thermodynamic equations when they modular snapped that puppy together - and of course ... buried the fact that they did by ignoring the issue and not drawing attention to the mistake or some diversion of strategy..haha.  But in the lower 100 to 200 mbs of the troposphere - quite plausibly related to it's bad theta-e management/physics.  It also had that nor'easter earlier that March ...remember that?  2" to 3" of 6-hourly QPF with a DP spread of 8 F ( 39/31).  That lent many to think it was missing a blue bomb potential if correcting toward wet-bulb.  So, there was bated hope ... oops.  What happens? OH, we wet bulbed ... to 35/34 with 2" to 3" of rain -- wah wah wahhhh... Oh if one were nerdy enough to look cat paws.  That's part of the 'emergent butt-bang' mystique, too.  I mean, the model is wrong, and we still rained - 

Anyway, that GFS was a joke... Not sure if this present version is any better with those thermodynamics in the boundary layer.  Both versions have a 'stretching' /longitude bias in the mid levels that's pretty demonstrable at all times, ... heredity it has gained from the last version, which also did that progressivity thing even worse.  So it may be incrementally improved, who knows...

But in any/all these cases, that heat dome from that big ridge event that early July was still verifying less.   Even at 95/76 (76 might be pricey... was it less?), that was under cooked by some ... so as far as as the synergy abstraction, it was both a failed historic ridge because of the weird nodal-hemispheric cool sink, while still managing to be an inferno - which perhaps belies the former...  interesting. 

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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Not the start to May I was hoping for. Just praying and hoping that as the pattern does change we'll see a solid severe threat with it. 

 

Can't wait for a good Wizzy meltdown when its May20 and we haven't had a classic SNE severe 30 mph storm yet 

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Today was absolutely beautiful.

Mid-60s in Northern Vermont and sunshine... we take that all day long.  Good diurnal range, indicative of a great day... mid-20s to mid-60s.

Fantastic stuff, went for a few hour walk up an old road to 2,400ft.  Doesn't get much better than this for late April with sunshine and 55-65F depending on elevation.

SashaSmaller.thumb.jpg.de6c7f4814257f941a85c9427809720e.jpg

 

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today was absolutely beautiful.

Mid-60s in Northern Vermont and sunshine... we take that all day long.  Good diurnal range, indicative of a great day... mid-20s to mid-60s.

Fantastic stuff, went for a few hour walk up an old road to 2,400ft.  Doesn't get much better than this for late April with sunshine and 55-65F depending on elevation.

SashaSmaller.thumb.jpg.de6c7f4814257f941a85c9427809720e.jpg

 

Meanwhile Boston didn't break 50. Was beautiful here until about noon. Eweather tweeted this out from the Apr Supermoon, thought you would like it

CCC61D8E-FA75-49A3-8A7E-982F42EE0F3D.jpeg

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today was absolutely beautiful.

Mid-60s in Northern Vermont and sunshine... we take that all day long.  Good diurnal range, indicative of a great day... mid-20s to mid-60s.

Fantastic stuff, went for a few hour walk up an old road to 2,400ft.  Doesn't get much better than this for late April with sunshine and 55-65F depending on elevation.

SashaSmaller.thumb.jpg.de6c7f4814257f941a85c9427809720e.jpg

 

They say it’s been a terrible weather month . 

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35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meanwhile Boston didn't break 50. Was beautiful here until about noon. Eweather tweeted this out from the Apr Supermoon, thought you would like it

CCC61D8E-FA75-49A3-8A7E-982F42EE0F3D.jpeg

Sick, wonder who the photographer was.  I’ve got a couple guesses, ha.  

Still a lot of snow above 2,000ft.  

70” at the Mansfield Stake.

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